where to park money during this recession?

[AndrewAZ]

Originally Posted by dr325i

How's that???
What is positive about this economy?
What is positive about the world's economy?
What happens when the effects of $1T wasted are felt?

I hope you're right, but I predict we're in for some ugly times...and not just for the short term...

1. People like yourself
2. Humm lets see we are still at economic full employment. Our GDP is still positive, exports in the past few years have grown incredibly fast due to the weak dollar which will bring it back the value of the dollar.
3. Everyone is still spending money, companies are still earning profits and some even record profits and sales. Wallmart and best buy seem to have no trouble selling record numbers of luxury goods such as flat screen high end TV's. People are still buying cars, people are still eating out, people are still spending a lot of money on entertainment, this economic gloom and doom Obama and other Democrats are trying to portray is just not showing.
4. What $1T wasted are you talking about... Oh I figure it out a democrat whos listening to Hillary and Obama who are trying to portray this country in a negative view in order to win the election.

Like the old glass half full and half empty, people like yourself always see "down" times as a very negative issue but others like myself see them as opportunities since I think long term and recognize the fact that all markets can not appreciate at record breaking numbers indefinitely and thus must eventually return back to historical appreciations.

Now to simplify that since you wont understand it.. A house in 2001 cost $120k from 1990-2000 it has appreciated 7% a year, but in 2002 the value of the home went up 30% then the next year it went up 30% again, so it has gone up 60% in 2 years and the historical rate it should of only gone up 14%, as we all know markets must revert due to issues of supply and demand, no one can afford the new higher price of the home so it must fall back aka revert to the mean appreciation so nows its going to lose 46% of its value roughly. Same thing is happening with the markets now not only in housing but in just about every other sector, we are just returning back to historical averages, after all we all know 25%-50% a year appreciation on investments wouldn't last since it was driven by pure speculation and had no real backing. Now you think this is horrible and we are all doomed, I see this as a great correction and its one that is necessary or the entire market would fail.

[DFW_M]

Originally Posted by AndrewAZ

1. People like yourself
2. Humm lets see we are still at economic full employment. Our GDP is still positive, exports in the past few years have grown incredibly fast due to the weak dollar which will bring it back the value of the dollar.
3. Everyone is still spending money, companies are still earning profits and some even record profits and sales. Wallmart and best buy seem to have no trouble selling record numbers of luxury goods such as flat screen high end TV's. People are still buying cars, people are still eating out, people are still spending a lot of money on entertainment, this economic gloom and doom Obama and other Democrats are trying to portray is just not showing.
4. What $1T wasted are you talking about... Oh I figure it out a democrat whos listening to Hillary and Obama who are trying to portray this country in a negative view in order to win the election.

Like the old glass half full and half empty, people like yourself always see "down" times as a very negative issue but others like myself see them as opportunities since I think long term and recognize the fact that all markets can not appreciate at record breaking numbers indefinitely and thus must eventually return back to historical appreciations.

Now to simplify that since you wont understand it.. A house in 2001 cost $120k from 1990-2000 it has appreciated 7% a year, but in 2002 the value of the home went up 30% then the next year it went up 30% again, so it has gone up 60% in 2 years and the historical rate it should of only gone up 14%, as we all know markets must revert due to issues of supply and demand, no one can afford the new higher price of the home so it must fall back aka revert to the mean appreciation so nows its going to lose 46% of its value roughly. Same thing is happening with the markets now not only in housing but in just about every other sector, we are just returning back to historical averages, after all we all know 25%-50% a year appreciation on investments wouldn't last since it was driven by pure speculation and had no real backing. Now you think this is horrible and we are all doomed, I see this as a great correction and its one that is necessary or the entire market would fail.

I'm sorry, how old are you?
How many recessions have you been employed through?
You want to sound smart with your "liberal", "BO + HC" comments and shit like that, but clearly proved that you have no clue what you're talking about... Your housing example has nothing to do with this...

Your "glass is full" crap has nothing to do with 62,000 people that just lost jobs last month... When was the last positive job month that we recall?

People are spending??? Consumer's confidence has been at the lowest level in years...decades... Big screen TVs...you're funny...

[mpimping]

goto reno with me.

[AndrewAZ]

Originally Posted by dr325i

I'm sorry, how old are you?
How many recessions have you been employed through?
You want to sound smart with your "liberal", "BO + HC" comments and shit like that, but clearly proved that you have no clue what you're talking about... Your housing example has nothing to do with this...

Your "glass is full" crap has nothing to do with 62,000 people that just lost jobs last month... When was the last positive job month that we recall?

People are spending??? Consumer's confidence has been at the lowest level in years...decades... Big screen TVs...you're funny...

Aww the liberal name calling.. Lets try and not make your next post personal and lets stick to the issue alright?

First off we are not in a recession, a recession is a term that has a definition. People have been using this term improperly including yourself.

My housing example was a simplified example of what is going on and what has happened with each down cycle of the market, its basic market economics. When items become overvalued they always correct to true market value. In the past few years we have seen stocks rise at incredible rates driven by speculation, same with housing. They are in the process now on correcting.

Site all the job numbers you want, but unemployment overall is at an all time low and by economic terms we are in full employment. Yea if it was 10-15% unemployed you might have a point but when we are at 5% you dont.

But if you want to look into the job loss of 60k people actually closer to 70k people lets look at the industry that took this job loss.. Want to take a guess? Your right construction and manufacturing.. Both of which are related to the housing market downturn due to overvaluations, remember in the housing boom we never had an issue of supply and demand, we had plenty of supply but price was inflated by speculators.

And again your looking at short term crap which means nothing, no one invests or can predict the short run, you must always look at the glass half full and look to the future, and if you look at our long term past its a good indicator that we always get out of market cycles such as what we are in.

This doom and gloom crap only works for a short time, eventually people take a look around and realize its simply not true.

And people are spending, go out to eat my friend, just look on this forum and others. People are still buying luxury cars and luxury items, granted they might not be selling at the same rates they were a year ago but they are still going strong. Also Investment is at an all time high, even in our crap housing market people are buying up homes at a discount now and renting them out in hopes of 5 years from now they will appreciate, some will some wont, but over any 10 year period most homes in normal locations its a safe bet to say they will appreciate between 5-8% a year.

[X1 Trojan]

lol @ people who fight about politics on forums.

[OC Guy]

Originally Posted by 335 Trojan

lol @ people who fight about politics on forums.

Almost as bad as people who flaunt their alma mater on forums.

Anyways, the market is bad. Alt-As are going to reset in two years, we have not seen the worst of the housing market IMO. Businesses are closing left and right. Even Starbucks is going to close ~ 200 stores.

High oil prices, housing crisis, high food prices, weak dollar, credit crisis, unemployment, etc. = bad economy.

[OC Guy]

Originally Posted by AndrewAZ

But if you want to look into the job loss of 60k people actually closer to 70k people lets look at the industry that took this job loss.. Want to take a guess? Your right construction and manufacturing.. Both of which are related to the housing market downturn due to overvaluations, remember in the housing boom we never had an issue of supply and demand, we had plenty of supply but price was inflated by speculators.

GM/Ford/Chrysler might cut a TON of jobs soon. You already know the airlines are cutting jobs. A large portion of the jobs were cut in Real Estate/Mortgage/Loans/etc.. There's a very alarming rate of people who have been unemployed for more than 27 weeks right now.

And people are spending, go out to eat my friend, just look on this forum and others. People are still buying luxury cars and luxury items, granted they might not be selling at the same rates they were a year ago but they are still going strong.

Go out to eat? Are you kidding me? Restaurants and retail are struggling right now.

GM's sales fell 18% in June. Toyota fell more than 21%, Ford fell almost 28%, and Chrysler fell 36%. U.S. auto sales plunged in June to a 15-year low. BMW Group said its June U.S. sales fell 11 percent, driven by declining sales of the automaker's 3 Series sedan.

Also Investment is at an all time high, even in our crap housing market people are buying up homes at a discount now and renting them out in hopes of 5 years from now they will appreciate, some will some wont, but over any 10 year period most homes in normal locations its a safe bet to say they will appreciate between 5-8% a year.

Ever heard of the saying, catch a falling knife? I guess you are a knife catcher hoping the market goes up sometime soon. Why buy now if the house could lose 10-20% in the next TWO years? Your rent profits won't make up for that, period.

5 years from now? LOL.

See below:

[mnkybiznes]

Commodities trading has been good enough to me in the past three years to the point that I no longer have a full time job. I never would have believed a person could survive on the profits ...

100k invested w/ 60-75k used in active trading has rewarded me with profits averaging 15k-31k per month. A good trader knows when/where to set the markers to get out. I know very little about commodities and rely heavily on my broker's experience. You ALWAYS have risk with CT however, the benefits for me have far outweighed the risks.

A good trader/broker can make all the difference and in my case my brother has done well for me ........... besides, he has as much to gain considering his commission is 25% of monthly profits.

Just my .0003 worth.

[fobunited]

uuhhh if your brother is a licensed broker, it is illegal for your brother to make commission off of your profits. The rules are pretty strict as to the sharing of profits and losses of a customer. There are some exceptions, but strictly charging a commission on profits is illegal.

[DFW_M]

Originally Posted by AndrewAZ

Aww the liberal name calling.. Lets try and not make your next post personal and lets stick to the issue alright?

First off we are not in a recession, a recession is a term that has a definition. People have been using this term improperly including yourself.

My housing example was a simplified example of what is going on and what has happened with each down cycle of the market, its basic market economics. When items become overvalued they always correct to true market value. In the past few years we have seen stocks rise at incredible rates driven by speculation, same with housing. They are in the process now on correcting.

Site all the job numbers you want, but unemployment overall is at an all time low and by economic terms we are in full employment. Yea if it was 10-15% unemployed you might have a point but when we are at 5% you dont.

But if you want to look into the job loss of 60k people actually closer to 70k people lets look at the industry that took this job loss.. Want to take a guess? Your right construction and manufacturing.. Both of which are related to the housing market downturn due to overvaluations, remember in the housing boom we never had an issue of supply and demand, we had plenty of supply but price was inflated by speculators.

And again your looking at short term crap which means nothing, no one invests or can predict the short run, you must always look at the glass half full and look to the future, and if you look at our long term past its a good indicator that we always get out of market cycles such as what we are in.

This doom and gloom crap only works for a short time, eventually people take a look around and realize its simply not true.

And people are spending, go out to eat my friend, just look on this forum and others. People are still buying luxury cars and luxury items, granted they might not be selling at the same rates they were a year ago but they are still going strong. Also Investment is at an all time high, even in our crap housing market people are buying up homes at a discount now and renting them out in hopes of 5 years from now they will appreciate, some will some wont, but over any 10 year period most homes in normal locations its a safe bet to say they will appreciate between 5-8% a year.

I guess you did not understand...again...
I did not call you the names -- I pointed out that you were calling me the liberal and BO/HC names...

Go out and eat...spend...
Don't you realize that the restaurant food, gas, energy, services, grocery foods prices rose at least 2x more than the average salaries raises in the USA. People are making less today than a year ago.

You may be lucky, but the MAJORITY of people in this country live worse today than a year, two or three years ago, period. But you, like O'Riley (name calling) do not realize that...

A few examples for you:
- gas prices today and a year ago.
- City water prices went up 8% in August of 2007 and 14% 2 weeks ago
- FPL (FL Power & Light) went up 18% last month
- my pool service was increased by 15% last month
- my lawn service by 10%
- my favorite dish in my favorite restaurant went up by 17% in the last 3 months...
- bread in a local grocery store went up from $2.69 to $3.19

Welcome to reality

[mnkybiznes]

Originally Posted by fobunited

uuhhh if your brother is a licensed broker, it is illegal for your brother to make commission off of your profits. The rules are pretty strict as to the sharing of profits and losses of a customer. There are some exceptions, but strictly charging a commission on profits is illegal.

He isn't a licensed broker and does the leg work for me. He has a broker who seems to be very good with keeping losses somewhat minimal. He has taken on only a handful of investors while he continues to learn the ropes. It's worth me paying for his knowledge and "know how" rather than taking on the headaches myself. I don't mind paying a commission to him ..... he is my brother afterall

[AndrewAZ]

[QUOTE=OC 335i;2937337]GM/Ford/Chrysler might cut a TON of jobs soon. You already know the airlines are cutting jobs. A large portion of the jobs were cut in Real Estate/Mortgage/Loans/etc.. There's a very alarming rate of people who have been unemployed for more than 27 weeks right now.




Go out to eat? Are you kidding me? Restaurants and retail are struggling right now.

GM's sales fell 18% in June. Toyota fell more than 21%, Ford fell almost 28%, and Chrysler fell 36%. U.S. auto sales plunged in June to a 15-year low. BMW Group said its June U.S. sales fell 11 percent, driven by declining sales of the automaker's 3 Series sedan.

Ok, you point out facts about cars big surprise we all know the car industry was in trouble, how does this deal with retail, yes I realize the retail rates are down for the past few months but when you compare it to the retail boom we are still above normal levels.

While we are on the car talk, go look up the sales numbers for the BMW 3 series, plot it out I bet you 3 years ago sales of the 3 series went up 30-40% and now they dropped 11% but going by past data they are still ahead.


Ever heard of the saying, catch a falling knife? I guess you are a knife catcher hoping the market goes up sometime soon. Why buy now if the house could lose 10-20% in the next TWO years? Your rent profits won't make up for that, period.

5 years from now? LOL.

I didnt say I would buy a house but others are, you have to realize the media made a mess out of this crap with more doom and gloom. Some areas in the USA have declined little and in some areas they are still appreciating home values. And the area the media sites the most are areas that were doing crappy before the housing boom. But again you can find areas in the US that wont lose any money, turn off the TV and do some research.

[AndrewAZ]

Originally Posted by dr325i

I guess you did not understand...again...
I did not call you the names -- I pointed out that you were calling me the liberal and BO/HC names...

Go out and eat...spend...
Don't you realize that the restaurant food, gas, energy, services, grocery foods prices rose at least 2x more than the average salaries raises in the USA. People are making less today than a year ago.

You may be lucky, but the MAJORITY of people in this country live worse today than a year, two or three years ago, period. But you, like O'Riley (name calling) do not realize that...

A few examples for you:
- gas prices today and a year ago.
- City water prices went up 8% in August of 2007 and 14% 2 weeks ago
- FPL (FL Power & Light) went up 18% last month
- my pool service was increased by 15% last month
- my lawn service by 10%
- my favorite dish in my favorite restaurant went up by 17% in the last 3 months...
- bread in a local grocery store went up from $2.69 to $3.19

Welcome to reality

The only thing on your list that is a necessity is Power and Light and water. Everything else is a luxury.

I dont have a pool, so I am not going to feel sorry that some poor chump cant afford his anymore, its a want not a need. Same with a lawn...

Americans waste so much money on luxury goods and overspend and cant handle a little economic downturn. But on the other hand we do have a large portion of people who are responsible. Go take a look at welfare last I heard was over 75% of the people on the program had cable TV.

Yawn... I am done wasting my time. Have a good one. ( You should request this be moved to the political section and Scott will finish for me)

[DFW_M]

Originally Posted by AndrewAZ

The only thing on your list that is a necessity is Power and Light and water. Everything else is a luxury.

I dont have a pool, so I am not going to feel sorry that some poor chump cant afford his anymore, its a want not a need. Same with a lawn...

Americans waste so much money on luxury goods and overspend and cant handle a little economic downturn. But on the other hand we do have a large portion of people who are responsible. Go take a look at welfare last I heard was over 75% of the people on the program had cable TV.

Yawn... I am done wasting my time. Have a good one. ( You should request this be moved to the political section and Scott will finish for me)

WOW, WOW, WOW...

Completely missed the point...

Never mind, go watch O'Riley now, obviously leads you the right way...

[OC Guy]

Originally Posted by AndrewAZ

I didnt say I would buy a house but others are, you have to realize the media made a mess out of this crap with more doom and gloom. Some areas in the USA have declined little and in some areas they are still appreciating home values. And the area the media sites the most are areas that were doing crappy before the housing boom. But again you can find areas in the US that wont lose any money, turn off the TV and do some research.

I rarely watch TV these days.

Declined a little? Perhaps you should put down the kool-aid.

BTW, gas is a necessity for many these days, it's not just water and electricity.

[fermion]

is there something that gives a consistent 10% annual return after taxes that is also relatively low risk?

there are some mutual funds that have averaged over 10% in the last 10 years, but mutual funds seem to be very much a hit or miss. sometimes, they lose money one year while making 15% the next year. plus, you need to get lucky and pick the right fund.

[DFW_M]

Originally Posted by OC 335i

I rarely watch TV these days.

Declined a little? Perhaps you should put down the kool-aid.

BTW, gas is a necessity for many these days, it's not just water and electricity.

The guy is so unrealistic...
Even in his back yard the home values crashed -- I sold a home in PHX in 2005 for $139k more than what they just listed it for last week...

There are only a few markets that have not experienced declines...
Some markets experienced tremendeous crashes...

[FirstClass]

Originally Posted by fermion

is there something that gives a consistent 10% annual return after taxes that is also relatively low risk?

Buffet? Though I hear they've got more capital than they can even nearly invest these days.

[AWD Addict]

I moved out of a REIT fund last august, at 130, bought a SE asia fund at 95 with all the proceeds.

Just sold SE asia at 100 and bought back the REIT fund at 90, almost 50% increase in shares.

A one year hold is probably as short term as I've ever traded. Right now, it feels like International and Real Estate is the most predictable. Catching a falling knife? I don't really make moves that are dangerous, so I'm not sure that's what I'd call it.

Past two weeks have been a disaster no matter where you're at though. These things happen. Don't panic, just sit tight and wait for the turnaround.

[Oregano123]

park it in commodities. theres an inverse relationship between capital assets (i.e stocks and bonds) and commodities, inflationi and interest rates.

[iatacs19]

Originally Posted by mnkybiznes

Commodities trading has been good enough to me in the past three years to the point that I no longer have a full time job. I never would have believed a person could survive on the profits ...

100k invested w/ 60-75k used in active trading has rewarded me with profits averaging 15k-31k per month. A good trader knows when/where to set the markers to get out. I know very little about commodities and rely heavily on my broker's experience. You ALWAYS have risk with CT however, the benefits for me have far outweighed the risks.

A good trader/broker can make all the difference and in my case my brother has done well for me ........... besides, he has as much to gain considering his commission is 25% of monthly profits.

Just my .0003 worth.

Are you serious? Why the FUCK am I still working man!!!

So with just $100k in capital you can generate that much monthly income??? I'd be happy with 50% of that if I don't have to work another day in my life.

How do I go about researching more into this?

Any insights are appreciated.

[jdink]

Originally Posted by mnkybiznes

Commodities trading has been good enough to me in the past three years to the point that I no longer have a full time job. I never would have believed a person could survive on the profits ...

100k invested w/ 60-75k used in active trading has rewarded me with profits averaging 15k-31k per month. A good trader knows when/where to set the markers to get out. I know very little about commodities and rely heavily on my broker's experience. You ALWAYS have risk with CT however, the benefits for me have far outweighed the risks.

A good trader/broker can make all the difference and in my case my brother has done well for me ........... besides, he has as much to gain considering his commission is 25% of monthly profits.

Just my .0003 worth.

Expenses:

25% - commission to brother
33-35% - short term capital gains (on probably 40% of all transactions)
15% - long term capital gains (on the other 60%)
xx% - broker
------
+50% of all profits are not going into your pocket, meaning instead of living off of 276, you are living off of $138,000 a year, or more than likely $69,000 a year assuming your broker takes 25%. And considering you are living off of this, that means it isnt being reinvested.

This is a laugh in a half. You are either lieing, stupid, or someone is lieing to you and taking you for a ride. I sincerly hope i am missing something here because if not, i feel sorry for what is in store for you. I appologize if this message is harsh, but if any of this is true i hope this serves as a wakeup call.