Evidence that Mag Price Estimates are wrong

[JEllis]

Picked up the latest issue of Car and Driver with the GTR in it. There estimate for the base price was $85,000...

Evidence not to put too much stock into what Magazines are estimating the M3's price to be.

Jason

[NavNurs]

Now, with some of the logic tossed around this forum, we should be able to figure out the true price of the M.

Simply take the C&D price of the M and reduce it by the same ratio as they overstated the price on the GTR. There we have it!

Ok people, who wants to do the math........

[carnuts3]

Originally Posted by NavNurs

Now, with some of the logic tossed around this forum, we should be able to figure out the true price of the M.

Simply take the C&D price of the M and reduce it by the same ratio as they overstated the price on the GTR. There we have it!

Ok people, who wants to do the math........

Not me. I'll just wait for the official price announcement from BMW.

[Sedan_Clan]

Originally Posted by carnuts3

Not me. I'll just wait for the official price announcement from BMW.

+3

[BMW3R]

Originally Posted by JEllis

Picked up the latest issue of Car and Driver with the GTR in it. There estimate for the base price was $85,000...

Evidence not to put too much stock into what Magazines are estimating the M3's price to be.

Jason

I have the same mag and they list the est. M3 base at $65,000 with as tested price just over $75,000. Where did you see $85,000?

[aerisolphaln]

Originally Posted by BMW3R

I have the same mag and they list the est. M3 base at $65,000 with as tested price just over $75,000. Where did you see $85,000?

He's talking about the estimated base price of the GT-R, which has now been placed in the mid 60's.

[JEllis]

Originally Posted by carnuts3

Not me. I'll just wait for the official price announcement from BMW.

He was joking......

Originally Posted by BMW3R

I have the same mag and they list the est. M3 base at $65,000 with as tested price just over $75,000. Where did you see $85,000?

Not too quick on the up take huh?

Just kidding... yeah I was talking about the est of the GTR which C&D said was 85k. The price was released and is basically 70k....

Jason

[BMW3R]

Originally Posted by JEllis

He was joking......



Not too quick on the up take huh?

Just kidding... yeah I was talking about the est of the GTR which C&D said was 85k. The price was released and is basically 70k....

Jason

Sorry, I was just reading the post about the KTLA $80,000 price announcement just before reading this post, so I was tuned into M3 pricing.

Hopefully the same will happen with the price of the M#. I couldn't imagine paying the same price for an M3 as an M5.

[JEllis]

Yeah,

We all have our estimates but I honestly believe that BMW is going to shock us with a relatively low MSRP.

The M3 was great for many reasons and one of the biggest has always been great performance for bargain. To me 65K is not a bargain especially when the RS4 and C63 AMG can be had for the same price. Not to mention the GTR comes almost loaded at 69K. I believe the M3 will significantly undercut the competition as it has historically. However, only time will tell. Hopefully we find out sooner than later.

Jason

[aerisolphaln]

Originally Posted by JEllis

Yeah,

We all have our estimates but I honestly believe that BMW is going to shock us with a relatively low MSRP.

The M3 was great for many reasons and one of the biggest has always been great performance for bargain. To me 65K is not a bargain especially when the RS4 and C63 AMG can be had for the same price. Not to mention the GTR comes almost loaded at 69K. I believe the M3 will significantly undercut the competition as it has historically. However, only time will tell. Hopefully we find out sooner than later.

Jason

While I truly hope this to be the case, I think one of the major reasons BMW have not released the US MSRP is because it will be in-line with European prices with regard to premiums over 335 or previous e46 M3 models. This means a big old hike in US MSRP - the longer BMW waits, the worse it's going to be.

[JEllis]

Estimates based on premiums in other countries have already been posted throughout this forum. Depending on which country you look at the M3 in the US could cost between 55k and 65K.

Also, the talk that BMW is delaying the release of US pricing is ridiculous. BMW priced this thing a long time ago. There release of pricing in the US will follow the same flow it did in Europe. Expect to find out the price here a few months prior to the beginning of production for the US.

Jason

[lucid]

Originally Posted by westwest888

I've got a $200 bet with someone that it's low 50s. I think we agreed on $53,999.99 or less. I don't think I'm going to lose.

Yep, that's right, with me. I didn't hear from you, so I was beginning to think you back out. Shall we send in the checks to mkoesel then?

[JEllis]

Originally Posted by westwest888

I've got a $200 bet with someone that it's low 50s. I think we agreed on $53,999.99 or less. I don't think I'm going to lose.

<OT>I'll also take bets with anyone that the we'll see Dow 10,500 or less and S&P 1175 or less by the end of this decade.

And for that matter, that the national median home price as measured by Case/Shiller S&P falls 33% from its peak (peak was around $230,000 but I'd have to double check).</OT>

If you think about it, the OP and the OT are related in that they determine a person's willingness / ability to pay. The good times are still rolling and everyone is still working, but there's some economic trouble ahead that not even the masters of the universe can contain.

Agreed, I sense a fellow economist in our midst.

IMO, the estimates for the new M3 have become way over inflated some how. I think mostly because MB and Audi are selling there relatively low volume AMG's and R models, respectfully, at a significant premium (65K thereabouts). And, the M3's high sales volume (read supply and demand) in the USA is simply being disregarded by the media and most journalists that did better in English than Economics in school.

The bottom line is that we will all just have to wait and see.

But ask yourselves this.

What would you think if the M3 was 55k MSRP?

My opinion, the M3 would be the best bang for the buck luxury sports car in existence. A title the M3 has had for years.

Do you think BMW could sell 50,000 of these babies at 55k?



Jason

[aerisolphaln]

Originally Posted by JEllis

Agreed, I sense a fellow economist in our midst.

IMO, the estimates for the new M3 have become way over inflated some how. I think mostly because MB and Audi are selling there relatively low volume AMG's and R models, respectfully, at a significant premium (65K thereabouts). And, the M3's high sales volume (read supply and demand) in the USA is simply being disregarded by the media and most journalists that did better in English than Economics in school.

The bottom line is that we will all just have to wait and see.

But ask yourselves this.

What would you think if the M3 was 55k MSRP?

My opinion, the M3 would be the best bang for the buck luxury sports car in existence. A title the M3 has had for years.

Do you think BMW could sell 50,000 of these babies at 55k?



Jason

I like the way you are talking here, I hope BMW has a similar mindset.

[swamp2]

Originally Posted by lucid

Yep, that's right, with me. I didn't hear from you, so I was beginning to think you back out. Shall we send in the checks to mkoesel then?

Unless te bet was confirmed by PM there is no bet. I constanly ribbed westwest about not stepping up to the plate and taking the bet both with you and with me as well. Westwest, I say it again, put up or shut up.

[swamp2]

Originally Posted by JEllis

Agreed, I sense a fellow economist in our midst.

IMO, the estimates for the new M3 have become way over inflated some how. I think mostly because MB and Audi are selling there relatively low volume AMG's and R models, respectfully, at a significant premium (65K thereabouts). And, the M3's high sales volume (read supply and demand) in the USA is simply being disregarded by the media and most journalists that did better in English than Economics in school.

The bottom line is that we will all just have to wait and see.

But ask yourselves this.

What would you think if the M3 was 55k MSRP?

My opinion, the M3 would be the best bang for the buck luxury sports car in existence. A title the M3 has had for years.

Do you think BMW could sell 50,000 of these babies at 55k?



Jason

Sure, I agree all the talk (though much of it sarcasm) about a $75-$80k base is pure ridiculousness. However, so is mid to low 50's, IMHO. Furthermore, I would not exactly call AMG cars "specialty" or low volume vehicles any longer. These cars are selling in quite high volumes these days. Pricing is set by competition, greed and desired sales volume. If the main competitors and base prices are:

IS-F: low $50's k (est)
C63 AMG: $63k (est.)
RS4: $66k
911: $73.5k

Why would BMW come in in the mid to low 50's? As much of a good performer the Lexus has already shown to be, I don't think BMW has to worry about it stealing too much market share. Different demographic, different "league" in most folks minds (yes there are many badge whores out there and those who will buy on reputation alone). Sure they can not discount the IS-F totally and that should indeed be a factor that will push the price lower. By the way anyone have any better estimates than those above?

Hmmm looking at that list why not charge high 50's, keep it less expensive by a healthy couple of grand than the two closest competitors, keep it just below the important psychological barrier of $60k and meet both goals of besting most of your competitors on price and besting them as being the best drivers car as well? This sounds like the forumula for success to me.

So like I have said over and over I think the real question is can they push the price just above $60k or will they keep it just below $60k? I think discussions far outside of this range are simply personal fantasy and false hope.

One last detail. Consider the poll results. I am not saying a poll can predict a price but it should be reasonable. Only 1 in 8 (12.5%) believe the car will come in less than $55k. The mean and median are both in the very high 50's. I suppose you could also argue here that I, the author of that poll, skewed the results by posting the range constructed the way I did. It is a fair/possible criticism but only if there is much of a chance for a low 50's price.

[lucid]

Originally Posted by swamp2

Unless te bet was confirmed by PM there is no bet. I constanly ribbed westwest about not stepping up to the plate and taking the bet both with you and with me as well. Westwest, I say it again, put up or shut up.

If he has indeed backed out, it would be pretty stupid of him to bring it up again on his own. So, I don't understand this guy...

[JEllis]

Originally Posted by swamp2

Sure, I agree all the talk (though much of it sarcasm) about a $75-$80k base is pure ridiculousness. However, so is mid to low 50's, IMHO. Furthermore, I would not exactly call AMG cars "specialty" or low volume vehicles any longer. These cars are selling in quite high volumes these days. Pricing is set by competition, greed and desired sales volume. If the main competitors and base prices are:

IS-F: low $50's k (est)
C63 AMG: $63k (est.)
RS4: $66k
911: $73.5k

Why would BMW come in in the mid to low 50's? As much of a good performer the Lexus has already shown to be, I don't think BMW has to worry about it stealing too much market share. Different demographic, different "league" in most folks minds (yes there are many badge whores out there and those who will buy on reputation alone). Sure they can not discount the IS-F totally and that should indeed be a factor that will push the price lower. By the way anyone have any better estimates than those above?

Hmmm looking at that list why not charge high 50's, keep it less expensive by a healthy couple of grand than the two closest competitors, keep it just below the important psychological barrier of $60k and meet both goals of besting most of your competitors on price and besting them as being the best drivers car as well? This sounds like the forumula for success to me.

So like I have said over and over I think the real question is can they push the price just above $60k or will they keep it just below $60k? I think discussions far outside of this range are simply personal fantasy and false hope.

One last detail. Consider the poll results. I am not saying a poll can predict a price but it should be reasonable. Only 1 in 8 (12.5%) believe the car will come in less than $55k. The mean and median are both in the very high 50's. I suppose you could also argue here that I, the author of that poll, skewed the results by posting the range constructed the way I did. It is a fair/possible criticism but only if there is much of a chance for a low 50's price.

Okay I will give you my real reasoning.....

Your points are well made but I still stand by my estimate of 57K. Which by the way is more than what Military Sales is expecting by 2-3K grand. I think I have told this before but the estimates Military Sales uses come from BMW. The discount price of 49K through Military Sales is the required price given to the various BMW Military Sales programs in order to establish a contract with a given Military Customer. Thus this explains why both BMW Military Sales programs that I know use the same estimate. Those of us on this program already have signed orders for the car. Granted, the contract stipulates that the price may increase or decrease when official pricing is announced.

Also, the Military Sales estimates rarely are off by more than 1-2 grand. For example, the estimated price for the 335i through Mil Sales was right on. Another example, a fellow Marine asked me to find out what the Military Sales price was for the 135i about a month ago. My sales rep told me that they were taking pre-orders at around 31K with the discount. Without the 5-6% discount you get about 33k as the estimated price. So Mil Sales was off by about 2K for the 135i.

In my personal opinion BMW is going to have the last laugh on this one. The faults that exist in the new M3 could almost be overlooked at a 55K price tag or even at 57K. Although I also believe the 55-57K MSRP will be with almost no standard options. Not even leather. If leather and 19" were standard like on the RS4 then that alone would push the MSRP to over 60K (with my $56,999 estimate) but we both know that both those options are not standard. That alone makes me think the MSRP is going to be less than 60K.

Jason

[lucid]

Originally Posted by JEllis

Okay I will give you my real reasoning.....

Your points are well made but I still stand by my estimate of 57K. Which by the way is more than what Military Sales is expecting by 2-3K grand. I think I have told this before but the estimates Military Sales uses come from BMW. The discount price of 49K through Military Sales is the required price given to the various BMW Military Sales programs in order to establish a contract with a given Military Customer. Thus this explains why both BMW Military Sales programs that I know use the same estimate. Those of us on this program already have signed orders for the car. Granted, the contract stipulates that the price may increase or decrease when official pricing is announced.

Also, the Military Sales estimates rarely are off by more than 1-2 grand. For example, the estimated price for the 335i through Mil Sales was right on. Another example, a fellow Marine asked me to find out what the Military Sales price was for the 135i about a month ago. My sales rep told me that they were taking pre-orders at around 31K with the discount. Without the 5-6% discount you get about 33k as the estimated price. So Mil Sales was off by about 2K for the 135i.

In my personal opinion BMW is going to have the last laugh on this one. The faults that exist in the new M3 could almost be overlooked at a 55K price tag or even at 57K. Although I also believe the 55-57K MSRP will be with almost no standard options. Not even leather. If leather and 19" were standard like on the RS4 then that alone would push the MSRP to over 60K (with my $56,999 estimate) but we both know that both those options are not standard. That alone makes me think the MSRP is going to be less than 60K.

Jason

57k is not an unrealistic expectation. I'd say there is good chance it will come in at 57k-59k. My current thinking, after seeing that leather is not standard, is that we are looking at more like 58k. However, it is unrealistic to think it will come in at or under 55k. As Swamp is saying, it makes no sense to price it there given where the competition is. The low volume point has merit for the RS4, but this new MB is a C class; they must be planning to sell thousands. Even if you leave the C class point alone, I see several AMGs every day on my way to work. I rarely see any RS cars. Regardless, it would be interesting to get a hold of some unit projections for the C63 AMG.

[UltimateBMW]

^ First half of that post should of happened days ago in the thread where all the bets were being put. It's understandable for you to not want to make a bet with 5+ people but if that is your plan then you shouldn't talk such a big game.

As for magazine prices and BMW I think they really have little bearing, anything they come up with so can any one of their devoted readers that are similarly informed.

[lucid]

Originally Posted by westwest888

I haven't had the time to do due diligence on the person we want to send these checks to, but I will get around to it when we have vacation next week.

I'll send you and mkoesel a pm to work on the details...