WHat is up with the Stock Market???

[NaTuReB0Y]

Originally Posted by cgnahc

It's all relative (position); I see it as a 300pt gain for a short position.
Welcome to the jungle. Nice continuation for a change.

my wife had all her ING DIRECT accounts switched to "conservative"....

Is that the right thing to do?

I'm leaving my accounts alone....and

[Straz M3]

Originally Posted by NaTuReB0Y

my wife had all her ING DIRECT accounts switched to "conservative"....

Is that the right thing to do?

I'm leaving my accounts alone....and

You're wife is a typical investor. Chasing returns. Buy high and sell low. You are the smart investor...ride the wave if you are long term. It is definately going to be a rocky ride. BUY BUY BUY gradually as it lowers down. This is a 10% correction from the high in July but I wouldn't be surprised if it rock bottoms at 12.4, 12.5. This is the buying opportunity.

[DFW_M]

Originally Posted by Straz 335

You're wife is a typical investor. Chasing returns. Buy high and sell low. You are the smart investor...ride the wave if you are long term. It is definately going to be a rocky ride. BUY BUY BUY gradually as it lowers down. This is a 10% correction from the high in July but I wouldn't be surprised if it rock bottoms at 12.4, 12.5. This is the buying opportunity.

I can see it bottom at 12.5 shortly, but way below that by the end of the year, into next year...especially next 3 years...when the real wasting from current admin starts playing...

[cgnahc]

Originally Posted by NaTuReB0Y

my wife had all her ING DIRECT accounts switched to "conservative"....

Is that the right thing to do?

I'm leaving my accounts alone....and

Right thing to do now. There are also inversely related products in the exchange traded fund (ETF) world. You can buy these ETFs and make your gains when the indices head lower.

Sometimes when the account is lower and gets lower, you are in paralysis. Disbelief and hoping things would reverse. You may be right in the end that it will come back, but the market has too much elasticity that it will take you to ruin before it snaps back. So the factors of concern are your account size and time. What to do is to layout an exit strategy. Consider selling a partial position to reduce your exposure to the market since you believe you are on the wrong side of the trend. Consider a full cash position if you hit your max loss or pain threshold. Typically, like in Investor Business Daily, it would be around 8%. Right now you are most likely in a position to say that you are "making less money that you would have a few weeks ago". In other words, you are in a position to preserve your gains, and not limiting your losses and reaching your initial risk level.

[cgnahc]

Originally Posted by dr325i

I can see it bottom at 12.5 shortly, but way below that by the end of the year, into next year...especially next 3 years...when the real wasting from current admin starts playing...

Do not predict the future. You will only be disappointed when it proves you wrong. Instead anticipate the reversal. While the market is descending, and trending lower, pros are stalking for the reversal, because it is virtually guaranteed it will happen over time. That is the nature of the beast. Yes, we are looking to buy, but the difference is that we are not buying right now.
We let the market tell us when to buy, not the other way around.

[ACZakka325i]

I took half off the table today at the first low. I come back to the tv to see that the dow rallied 330 points!

I think ill sit in cash for a little while, after all cash is king. Just a little upset im not going to be collecting dividends for a while.

[cgnahc]

Nice little end of session rally, with legs to carry over to the next morning. Sure it was a lot of short covering, but large funds usually position themselves near end of session to prevent guys like us making things too expensive for them. This is when the market says hello, its ok to buy me now. This is a easy one. Looking to buy into the reversal Friday morning on this countertrend rally. Just have to be nimble with the market and be flexible.

[ACZakka325i]

hey cgnahc, what you think about GS at 171. I was playing with it when it was in the 220's and decided i couldnt deal with it anymore. Is it now a good time to settle into a long position from here?

[e90fanatic]

Originally Posted by ACZakka325i

hey cgnahc, what you think about GS at 171. I was playing with it when it was in the 220's and decided i couldnt deal with it anymore. Is it now a good time to settle into a long position from here?

set a limit order for 155-160

[cgnahc]

Originally Posted by ACZakka325i

I took half off the table today at the first low. I come back to the tv to see that the dow rallied 330 points!

I think ill sit in cash for a little while, after all cash is king. Just a little upset im not going to be collecting dividends for a while.

That was the first thing you did wrong. You sold into weakness. You allowed fear to take hold and let the market control you. Although it is a very powerful emotion, it should not be a factor in your decision making. It's good that you recognize to reduce your exposure to risk. In light of the volatility, you may consider reducing your holding time frame. Dropping the time frame is one way to deal with volatility, choppy trading conditions, and high/low .VIX. Again, the market condition determines what strategy or trading style to employ.

[bulletproof]

Originally Posted by cgnahc

That was the first thing you did wrong. You sold into weakness. You allowed fear to take hold and let the market control you. Although it is a very powerful emotion, it should not be a factor in your decision making. It's good that you recognize to reduce your exposure to risk. In light of the volatility, you may consider reducing your holding time frame. Dropping the time frame is one way to deal with volatility, choppy trading conditions, and high/low .VIX. Again, the market condition determines what strategy or trading style to employ.

I did the same thing. I need to fold a few hands until the game starts going my way again. Everything is too volatile right now. Once I start seeing some steadiness, I will get back in. Losing 10K in two days doesnt sit well with me at all...

[cgnahc]

Originally Posted by ACZakka325i

hey cgnahc, what you think about GS at 171. I was playing with it when it was in the 220's and decided i couldnt deal with it anymore. Is it now a good time to settle into a long position from here?

Well, beside all that mumble jumble disclaimer stuff, GS as a sector has been trashed, but GS is like the jewel that always glitters even in the dark. If you believe GS is quality, absolutely no problem picking GS up on dips, especially today. Execution wise, I set buy stops with linked bracket order. I don't like limits because sometimes they don't get filled or not filled to the stated size. (I talk you listen mentality). If volatility is a problem for you, set a partial position on and set another one little higher to scale into a full position.

Now if you are looking to take on the position tomorrow morning, definitely, check out the futures market prior to open to see if there is any gapping, either up or down. If there is, WAIT. Let the market settle, because there will be fading, and it could take place within a time frame which I don't think you are into. It is very important to know and plan for an exit prior to your entry. What is it? If I were trading GS, (which I may, just for the hell of it), will be selling into the next swing high or some consolidation area. I will also prepare myself to exit early, because I know this is a countertrend rally, which is on a compressed time frame. I don't like to report targets or give price ranges because it sets up for disappointment and is not in line with allowing my trades for unlimited gains. I will however, say that I will be 100% sure I'll be selling a partial position into resistance.

[ACZakka325i]

Originally Posted by bulletproof

Once I start seeing some steadiness, I will get back in. Losing 10K in two days doesnt sit well with me at all...

I think tomorrow will be ugly. Theres nothing wrong with having some (1/2) peace of mind.

[cgnahc]

About GS:

See that bump at $198.50?, that's a swing high resistance. I'd say anything above $194.00 is a gift and you should take it. I'll be entering at $171.50 area ideally. Higher if rally continues. My risk is mid $162.00 about 5.5%. Looking to gain 13% in about 4-5 trading days. BTW, others should not be put off by the high price, just take on less shares. Do what you can afford and appropriate with your position size relative to you account size.

[jbake]

Originally Posted by ACZakka325i

I think tomorrow will be ugly. Theres nothing wrong with having some (1/2) peace of mind.

The earthquake in Peru will not help the cause. Stupid variable-rate mortgages messing everything up too.

[cgnahc]

Originally Posted by bulletproof

I did the same thing. I need to fold a few hands until the game starts going my way again. Everything is too volatile right now. Once I start seeing some steadiness, I will get back in. Losing 10K in two days doesnt sit well with me at all...

Did you lose or did you just made less? I too was hit unusually hard this morning with the volatility, but I came back. Very unlike me but, what can you say. There is always tomorrow. Standing on the sidelines is just fine. Just don't waste your time though. Take this opportunity to refine your strategy and figure out what you did right and what was wrong. It could be as simple as taking an extra 1/2 hr a day or week to adjust your positions.

Also whatever $ amount swings you have, trust me I've seen and personnally experienced large ones, make sure it is within the context of your account size. $10k on a $1M account is only 1%; on a $100K account is 10%, way to much. Typically, account $ amount should not swing lower than about 4% per month (about 20 trailing trading days). Otherwise, you are out of control.

[bulletproof]

Originally Posted by cgnahc

Did you lose or did you just made less? I too was hit unusually hard this morning with the volatility, but I came back. Very unlike me but, what can you say. There is always tomorrow. Standing on the sidelines is just fine. Just don't waste your time though. Take this opportunity to refine your strategy and figure out what you did right and what was wrong. It could be as simple as taking an extra 1/2 hr a day or week to adjust your positions.

Also whatever $ amount swings you have, trust me I've seen and personnally experienced large ones, make sure it is within the context of your account size. $10k on a $1M account is only 1%; on a $100K account is 10%, way to much. Typically, account $ amount should not swing lower than about 4% per month (about 20 trailing trading days). Otherwise, you are out of control.

I know I like a steady stock market and when there are 200-300 point swings everyday, there is just too much risk involved.

What I've learned is to get out as soon as the market gets crazy and get back in when it steadies out again. If I would have done this earleir, I could have saved my profits and sat on the sidelines while these problems worked themselves out.

[cgnahc]

Originally Posted by bulletproof

I know I like a steady stock market and when there are 200-300 point swings everyday, there is just too much risk involved.

What I've learned is to get out as soon as the market gets crazy and get back in when it steadies out again. If I would have done this earleir, I could have saved my profits and sat on the sidelines while these problems worked themselves out.

OK, good. Now how are you going to recognize a "crazy" market earlier? Here is the answer. Assuming that you already have the a long position on, your mentality should be a money hunger bastard. Price is king for you. Don't worry about earning, cnbc, announcements, bla bla bla. You are looking to exit if the price meets certain conditions for you. Either it hits a target or it hits a stop. Volatility will either spike up and hit your target prematurely, or spike down to hit your stop, which you have set by accepting the fact you will be satisfied with exiting at this price point. My point is to take the uncontrollable factors out of the equation and deal only with tools you have control over.

[cgnahc]

Originally Posted by cgnahc

Do not predict the future. You will only be disappointed when it proves you wrong. Instead anticipate the reversal. While the market is descending, and trending lower, pros are stalking for the reversal, because it is virtually guaranteed it will happen over time. That is the nature of the beast. Yes, we are looking to buy, but the difference is that we are not buying right now.
We let the market tell us when to buy, not the other way around.

check that...after some re-evaluation, pros may dip into this for some lunch money. I anticipate that a gap up will continue to sqeeze the shorts until the buying frenzy cease then that's about time when the funds finish up their morning meetings and begin to crank the market higher. Anyways, it's fun to visualize it out.

[bulletproof]

I think Im going to play the Hollywood Stock Exchange instead.

www.hsx.com

Its much less stressfull!

[yomash]

Originally Posted by ScBlacksunshine

Sad thing is, this market slide is trigger by credit squeeze combine with collapse of sub-prime, decline housing market, squeeze on regular prime, hedge funds selling and covering but the the sad thing is, I was reading the paper yesterday and median home prices in L.A. and OC is still mostly half a million and above....it's purely insane..not only are the funds in stock quickly erroding away...houses are still way out of reach for most regular folks. At this point, I honestly don give a F*** if an asteroid hit earth and wipe everything out........:mad:

No worries, Im in the same boat.. I am looking to buy my first home.. but people are just so stuck on their prices.. they don't want to admit or give in that their home is just not worth what it was a couple years ago. But also, I can't blame them becuase many simply cant afford to take that kind of a loss - they were crazy enough to spend that kind of money on their home and now the expect someone else to do the same. With the tightening lending standards and the winter months around the corner.. something has got to give. So either they give in.. or we all go down.

[ScBlacksunshine]

Originally Posted by cgnahc

That was the first thing you did wrong. You sold into weakness. You allowed fear to take hold and let the market control you. Although it is a very powerful emotion, it should not be a factor in your decision making. It's good that you recognize to reduce your exposure to risk. In light of the volatility, you may consider reducing your holding time frame. Dropping the time frame is one way to deal with volatility, choppy trading conditions, and high/low .VIX. Again, the market condition determines what strategy or trading style to employ.

Well said...although yesterday was ugly..the important thing is buying and selling base on fundamental of the company if you're in long position. For shorts, market pyscology plays a big part..that's why you're still seeing pops in stock such as Salesforce.com with their crazy PE of 333 and forward PE of 142