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01-16-2014, 04:13 AM | #1 |
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Cumulative data on S65 engine failures.
Below are details of S65 engine failures taken from the engine fail poll started by US///M3:
http://www.m3post.com/forums/showthread.php?t=924916 Combined with details from the thread started by aus: http://www.m3post.com/forums/showthread.php?t=786615 Last update March 2015 Headline numbers: (Excluding Supercharged cars) USA/Canada cars only Notes Fails = failures excluding cars fitted with Superchargers. Prod #s = Total number of cars built in that year for the USA & Canada market. Average mileage is lightly smoothed out. Prod#/Fails is the total M3 production number for that year(s) divided by number of failures (higher is better). Graph showing fail rate relative to mileage at fail. Excludes Supercharged cars. The above is for USA/Can cars without superchargers. The "average mileage at engine failure in production year" green line is pretty much as expected. The "number of cars produced in year divided by the number of failures" purple line however is not. It should follow the green line to show that newer cars are less likely to fail but clearly doesn't. Currently of the 47 entries: 22 are 2007/8/9/10 cars from a total production of 15203 cars @ an ave miles at failure of 61,500. 25 are 2011/12/13 cars from a total production of 15053 cars @ an ave miles at failure of 25,800. The change in rod bearing spec occurred sometime around July/Aug 2010 (probably for the 2011 MY) Spreadsheet of data: Notes: “Anon” usernames are users who gave their details but preferred to remain anonymous online. Blank entries are where no data was provided. USA/CAN production numbers supplied by "Sickfinga". The total numbers are greater than previously noted as they contain the final data for LCI E93 to end of production. The Excel file as a zip file is attached: Last edited by SenorFunkyPants; 04-03-2015 at 06:01 AM.. Reason: Update |
01-16-2014, 04:14 AM | #2 |
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If you have details of an engine failure please message me the details and I will add it to the spreadsheet. If you wish to remain anonymous please advise me in your message.
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01-16-2014, 07:13 AM | #4 |
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So basically an average of just around .003% of S65s fail. Of those that failed, just over 25% were supercharged and 36% of those that failed were 'modified'.
Great data here so far, now lets continue to panic about the rod bearing epidemic that plagues .003% of owners!
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01-16-2014, 08:13 AM | #5 | |
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01-16-2014, 08:26 AM | #6 |
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I thought there were lot more E90/92/93 built over those years. In fact you haven't taken into consideration cars built in 2007 - mine is one of them. Numbers for '08 looks high and assume 2007 and 2008 counted in the latter. Any idea?
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01-16-2014, 08:34 AM | #7 |
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I believe he's capturing the model year and not necessarily the year of manufacture. For example, 2011 was a long model year and had many cars manufactured in 2010 through nearly the end of 2011. Though I do see the first entry in the spreadsheet has the year as "2007".
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01-16-2014, 08:44 AM | #8 | ||
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I think I read that only USA/CAN cars have the production year included in the Vin number which is how Sickfinga gets the totals - I guess breakdown figures for the ROW would have to come from BMW themselves. 2007 production numbers are included in the 2008 total. There are a few non USA/CAN engine fails in the totals but I have left them in. |
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01-16-2014, 08:46 AM | #9 | |
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01-16-2014, 09:05 AM | #10 | |
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I dont think all M3 owners post here, I remember a doctor who had an engine failure that was reported on bimmerfest.
Even some who are here like the guy from Texas with the "rumad" plates ,the guy from Brooklyn, the russian guy with 3 ESS Sc'ed engine failures etc. didnt participate in the polls. is it fair to say most dont even frequent the forums. Quote:
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01-16-2014, 09:44 AM | #11 | |
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01-16-2014, 09:55 AM | #12 | |
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01-16-2014, 09:55 AM | #13 | |
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And Some people didnt reply to your emails not because they dont have legimate claims but because they dont check their mailbox or just dont have the time. |
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01-16-2014, 10:14 AM | #14 |
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I really like what you've done here SFP! Fine work.
It's worth reiterating what US///M3 mentioned above. Most owners don't go on and/or post on the forums. I assume there's less than 1000 posters of the total 30000 NA owners. I wouldn't even be surprised if the actual number was ~500 posters. But admittedly I'm just pulling a number out of thin air based on a gut feel -- kind of like all these tune reviews using butt dynos. |
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01-16-2014, 10:24 AM | #15 | |
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Its also worth noting that there are 182,000 members on M3Post, a decent number will be E9x M3 owners or who will know E9x M3 owners. Those who have had an engine failure will almost certainly have posted about their experiences, its human nature that people with a problem will want to vent their anger. Clearly the failures represent an unknown % of the actual failures that exist but all you can work with is the data that there is available. And what there is, points to: No epidemic of engine failures No correlation between failures and engine bearing revisions. |
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01-16-2014, 10:34 AM | #16 | |||
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Many m3 owners would not report and vent even if they are on the boards. I gave you some. I also doubt the guy who was filmed driving through a deluge of water on a Florida street and hydrolocked his motor (on camera) will be coming here to admit he's a bonehead and create a post about it. Engines that are replaced as goodwill or behind the scenes will never appear on here. There's no way to count the six blown engines reported by kawasaki00 in the Charlotte NC area in the past few weeks, and no way to count the four my local dealer told me about a few months ago. But the numbers are real nonetheless. Quote:
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01-16-2014, 10:39 AM | #17 | |
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You're under the assumption that the vast majority of guys with engine failures will come vent on here, not true. Let's go with the data that's available, not assumptions. It's like if you poll 500 people after you get the numbers, you include the 10,000 that didnt view or participate in a poll. |
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01-16-2014, 10:44 AM | #18 |
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Nice work SFP!
.. but question to all: since not every owner/car is a forum member, why are we focusing on an *overall* failure rate? I would assume the failure rate to be reported needs to a function of known forum number of cars. Right now, all we can do is infer the overall failure rate from the known (sample) failure rate. I think this is why there is misinterpretation of the likely failures because people are taking the estimated overall failure rate to be the actual failure rate. It's not! Only if we knew the total number of all failed cars over the known full production numbers can we definitely calculate the overall failure rate. |
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01-16-2014, 11:05 AM | #20 |
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The only way forward is for an Admin (or mod is they have access) to interrogate the M3post database for: Drives M3.
Copy all the entries and then manually check the field for E9x owners. I would be greatly surprised if it wasn't in the several thousands. |
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01-16-2014, 11:45 AM | #21 | |
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Also other cases only came to light because BMW denied a legimate warranty work like the Physician on Bimmerfest (not Bimmerpost). It's in a site's best interest to show more members, not less, including inactive members, members with multiple accounts etc. |
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