Stock market tips and experiences

[RandomHero]

Originally Posted by Vanity

Haven't postd here since I last wrote this comment June 24, about an hour after we bounced off 1560 as th level. Don't know if anyone bought in and went long on this call.

Can't decide right now what's going to happen to the markets tomorrow. Seems like we have been holding 1660 on the SPX all day. Mact, it's been a while. How you doing buddy?

Anyone else have a view on what is going to happen ST? I'm thinking we might bounce off 1660 and rally towards 1700. Unclear though about whether we break down first to 1625.

Chinese markets are having a face-ripping rally tonight.

While I rarely do this, using somewhat of a technical (rather than a fundamental) approach we should, in theory:
1.) Hit 1700 again by early September.
2.) Around October 1st we will see a dip to around 1680.
3.) We should rally for a month to around 1725
4.) Early November see a short pullback to around 1700
5.) Starting Mid November see a strong rally to around 1750.

I say this purely for amusement. This is not a timestamp either.

How I arrived at this conclusion:
1.) Measuring gains losses on 2-week price invervals for the S&P 500
2.) Noting that we have not had two consective 2-week pull backs
3.) Noting that generally those pullbacks have come about 1 month apart
4.) Noting that significant new highs have been reached every 3-4 months

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by RandomHero

While I rarely do this, using somewhat of a technical (rather than a fundamental) approach we should, in theory:
1.) Hit 1700 again by early September.
2.) Around October 1st we will see a dip to around 1680.
3.) We should rally for a month to around 1725
4.) Early November see a short pullback to around 1700
5.) Starting Mid November see a strong rally to around 1750.

I say this purely for amusement. This is not a timestamp either.

How I arrived at this conclusion:
1.) Measuring gains losses on 2-week price invervals for the S&P 500
2.) Noting that we have not had two consective 2-week pull backs
3.) Noting that generally those pullbacks have come about 1 month apart
4.) Noting that significant new highs have been reached every 3-4 months

Not to sure if there's any historical performance to back up that kind of methodology, but I agree with point 1). Haha

Well today we are seeing the VIX completely back off its highs made yesterday, down as low as ~-8% intraday. VIX market is saying we most likely just bottomed. I wonder how long it will take us to grind back to 1700. I went full-short on VIX into the close yesterday. Almost shit my pants thinking about "what-ifs". My first overnight trade in a long while, but the potential return was worth the risk (so far paying off). FOMC minutes next Wednesday. Maybe we rally from now into mid-week. VIX didn't even break 15 on this pullback. All other corrections have sent it 18+.

[mact3333]

Originally Posted by Vanity

Haven't postd here since I last wrote this comment June 24, about an hour after we bounced off 1560 as th level. Don't know if anyone bought in and went long on this call.

Can't decide right now what's going to happen to the markets tomorrow. Seems like we have been holding 1660 on the SPX all day. Mact, it's been a while. How you doing buddy?

Anyone else have a view on what is going to happen ST? I'm thinking we might bounce off 1660 and rally towards 1700. Unclear though about whether we break down first to 1625.

Chinese markets are having a face-ripping rally tonight.

First ST bounce will probably happen at 1625-1630

We will get a real scare in Oct-Nov timeframe I bet...but don't fall for it as I dont think it will be "the top"...but dont get super bullish all in either cause is it really worth trying to catch that "last" weak rally????...certainly not a buy and hold situation like it has been for past few yrs.

[RandomHero]

Originally Posted by Vanity

Not to sure if there's any historical performance to back up that kind of methodology, but I agree with point 1). Haha

I'll let you rethink that a bit....

-Comparing the price of the S&P 500 on a bi-monthly basis (1st – 15th) (15th-month end) there have been 5 periods of negative growth. 4 of them have been 1.5 months apart. The other was one month apart.
-Of those 5 periods, three of them have been followed by rallies of 2.9%, 6.9%, and 5.7% respectively. The fourth was flat. The period following the fifth ends on September 1st
-There is a technical indicator that starts around August 1st to suggest that the market has started to level off rather than making a potential run to 1800+

Historically:
-August has been a flat month (in regards to average return) with the market up 58% of the time.
-September has been a down month for the market. Over the past 50 years, it has been down 52% of the time with an average return of (-.65%).
-Over the past 50 years, September has been the worst month for the market. The average loss for September was 270% greater than any other month.
-More significantly: In the 21st century September has been a horrible month. From 2000-2012 returns for the month of September averaged (-1.71%). From 2000-2012 there have been five September months that realized AT LEAST a 5% or more decline for the S&P 500:
2011-down 7.19%
2008-down 9.56%
2002- down 11.00%
2001- down 8.17%
2000- down 5.35%
-October has been a big recovery month. In the 21st century, October was the fourth best performing month (behind March, April, and December)
-Over the past 50 years, November has been a strong month for the S&P 500 with the average performance around .92%. In the 21st century the average return has been around .55%.
-The market has shown positive performance in December about 85% of the time over the last 80 years
-The market has shown positive performance in December 80% of the time over the past 20 years
-November-January is statistically the strongest period for the market
-Summer time through September has statically been the weakest period for the market

So how does 2013 compare so far:
January-normal a strong month +4.95%
February- normally a weak month (-1.5%)
March- Normally a strong month +2.08%
April- Normally the strongest +1.81%
May- Normally an average month +3.6%
June- Normally a weak month +1.11%
July- Normally an average month +5.04%

January, February, March, May, June, and June are all positively correlated to the historical averages.

Only April and July of 2013 show to be negatively correlated to the historical monthly average performance. Even still, April 2013 was up 1.81% compared to the 50 year average of 1.51% and the 21st century average of 1.85%.

So you could argue that so far, 2013 has shown an extremely positive correlation to past historical performance. Get ready for a roller coaster ride in September!

Going to go play golf now. Be back later to check this.

[Ubersmooth]

Scenario: if you had $100 what would you invest in right now?
Personally I'd buy PAL but its a little risky.

I'd just like to see what you guys would do.

[F1Venom]

Originally Posted by Amer328i

Scenario: if you had $100 what would you invest in right now?
Personally I'd buy PAL but its a little risky.

I'd just like to see what you guys would do.

You can't even open a trading account with $100.

[Kwando]

Originally Posted by Amer328i

Scenario: if you had $100 what would you invest in right now?
Personally I'd buy PAL but its a little risky.

I'd just like to see what you guys would do.

Depending where you open you're account, you can spend up to $30 in fees for a single trade.

[Ubersmooth]

Originally Posted by Kwando

Depending where you open you're account, you can spend up to $30 in fees for a single trade.

Scottrade has around a $7 fee I think, not that bad.

[Ubersmooth]

Originally Posted by F1Venom

You can't even open a trading account with $100.

Lets assume you already have an account

[F1Venom]

Honestly? You can't do much with $100. But I would just buy as many shares of TVIX as possible when the market rolls over. Could see a return of 50-100x.

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by RandomHero

I'll let you rethink that a bit....

-Comparing the price of the S&P 500 on a bi-monthly basis (1st – 15th) (15th-month end) there have been 5 periods of negative growth. 4 of them have been 1.5 months apart. The other was one month apart.
-Of those 5 periods, three of them have been followed by rallies of 2.9%, 6.9%, and 5.7% respectively. The fourth was flat. The period following the fifth ends on September 1st
-There is a technical indicator that starts around August 1st to suggest that the market has started to level off rather than making a potential run to 1800+

Historically:
-August has been a flat month (in regards to average return) with the market up 58% of the time.
-September has been a down month for the market. Over the past 50 years, it has been down 52% of the time with an average return of (-.65%).
-Over the past 50 years, September has been the worst month for the market. The average loss for September was 270% greater than any other month.
-More significantly: In the 21st century September has been a horrible month. From 2000-2012 returns for the month of September averaged (-1.71%). From 2000-2012 there have been five September months that realized AT LEAST a 5% or more decline for the S&P 500:
2011-down 7.19%
2008-down 9.56%
2002- down 11.00%
2001- down 8.17%
2000- down 5.35%
-October has been a big recovery month. In the 21st century, October was the fourth best performing month (behind March, April, and December)
-Over the past 50 years, November has been a strong month for the S&P 500 with the average performance around .92%. In the 21st century the average return has been around .55%.
-The market has shown positive performance in December about 85% of the time over the last 80 years
-The market has shown positive performance in December 80% of the time over the past 20 years
-November-January is statistically the strongest period for the market
-Summer time through September has statically been the weakest period for the market

So how does 2013 compare so far:
January-normal a strong month +4.95%
February- normally a weak month (-1.5%)
March- Normally a strong month +2.08%
April- Normally the strongest +1.81%
May- Normally an average month +3.6%
June- Normally a weak month +1.11%
July- Normally an average month +5.04%

January, February, March, May, June, and June are all positively correlated to the historical averages.

Only April and July of 2013 show to be negatively correlated to the historical monthly average performance. Even still, April 2013 was up 1.81% compared to the 50 year average of 1.51% and the 21st century average of 1.85%.

So you could argue that so far, 2013 has shown an extremely positive correlation to past historical performance. Get ready for a roller coaster ride in September!

Going to go play golf now. Be back later to check this.

That's all very nice and all, but this sort of method (in my mind) is like trading on a stock alamanac.

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by Amer328i

Scottrade has around a $7 fee I think, not that bad.

Isn't that $7 per trade? As in Buy/Sell? So you're effectively losing 14% when you close your first position.

[r0wr]

Originally Posted by mact3333

Agree!.. I wouldn't trust Icahn ... He comes out with news only after he is done accumulating and you can be sure he will be trying to sell into late coming mom and pop

Aapl will not be visiting 700 any time soon and maybe never.

I'd be surprised if Apple topped 600.. Jobs isn't there to steal anymore.

[F1Venom]

Who cares about fundamentals. If investors love AAPL right now, then it'll go higher. They've already exhausted every known stock out there pumping them higher, and AAPL seems like the last best thing to run up.

[mact3333]

Originally Posted by mact3333

ST top is imminent.

As posted on 8/12/13 while SPX at 1690...now 50 pt's down from there...ST selling should ease soon, to be followed by more selling.....

Not sure if I will be posting any more updates when the true selling begins...might be busy then.

[F1Venom]

Originally Posted by mact3333

As posted on 8/12/13 while SPX at 1690...now 50 pt's down from there...ST selling should ease soon, to be followed by more selling.....

Not sure if I will be posting any more updates when the true selling begins...might be busy then.

Awww. No more ATH's any time soon? The close today looked horrible, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the week end flat.

[mact3333]

FB...AAPL...DDD...SSYS...TSLA...AMAVF.

Some of these up 100-300% since I "kinda" rec'd!

Only one thats even if BBRY.

Stick with the winners that have the crowds favor ...like the movie Gladiator--->"win the crowd!"

I will say when we top, we're not there yet.

[PSUSMU]

Up 10% on NDLS recently. Hoping for some Chipotle progress with their business.
Time to short NFLX. I want to short TSLA, but skeptical.

[Vanity]

Expecting this to resolve itself by next week. Hit 1630 in a dramatic fashion. Shorting the VIX now. Expecting it to remake a move back down to 12's. we shall see.

[RandomHero]

Anyone up for a friendly game?

Rules:
1.) Pick three individual equities.
2.) Must be trade on either the NYSE or NASDAQ
3.) Must be corporations (no ETFs, benchmarks, etc)
4.) Share price must be at least $5 (no penny stocks)
5.) Starts today 8/28
6.) Ends 9/11 (two weeks from today).
7.) Largest average gain wins (all three will be equally weighted)

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by RandomHero

Anyone up for a friendly game?

Rules:
1.) Pick three individual equities.
2.) Must be trade on either the NYSE or NASDAQ
3.) Must be corporations (no ETFs, benchmarks, etc)
4.) Share price must be at least $5 (no penny stocks)
5.) Starts today 8/28
6.) Ends 9/11 (two weeks from today).
7.) Largest average gain wins (all three will be equally weighted)

I'm down for that!

Except I can't, because all I trade is the VIX. Goodluck to the winner, whoever it is.

[Inspired]

Originally Posted by RandomHero

Anyone up for a friendly game?

Rules:
1.) Pick three individual equities.
2.) Must be trade on either the NYSE or NASDAQ
3.) Must be corporations (no ETFs, benchmarks, etc)
4.) Share price must be at least $5 (no penny stocks)
5.) Starts today 8/28
6.) Ends 9/11 (two weeks from today).
7.) Largest average gain wins (all three will be equally weighted)

I'll give it a shot but I'm more of a day trader not a swing trader.

1) JCP (short)
2) BBRY long
3) YELP long