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12-26-2013, 08:22 PM | #89 |
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Another owner with a recent catastrophic engine failure who didn't vote.
http://www.m3post.com/forums/showthread.php?t=916539 |
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12-27-2013, 04:10 AM | #90 | |
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OTOH if want a result that you can use to try to predict the % failure rate then only the owners of a car that has had an engine failure should have voted. Analogy: You want to get an idea how many of the population smoke...so you ask a random sample of people if they smoke and use the results to extrapolate to the entire population. You don't specifically invite known smokers into the sample. You don't ask the sample if they know of anyone who smokes and you definitely don't invite a tobacconists into the sample and ask him how many people he knows who smoke....unless of course you want skewed results for some particular reason. |
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12-27-2013, 06:31 AM | #91 | |
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Even polls conducted by professional pollsters have a margin of error. Let's say about 2,900 members looked at this thread,I'm sure of the 2,900 a good number are previous owners, prospect buyers etc, and remove the 2 or 3 votes you dont think should be included. Now let's assume we have a sample of 2,500 M3 owners that viewed this thread and 32 had an engine failure. That's about 1.3% of engine failures... |
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12-27-2013, 10:59 AM | #92 | ||
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Likewise, there's no legitimate reason unless you want a low number without much value to ignore motors you know have blown and can be proven to be blown. You use results from one thread to claim 8 failed motors and ignore the many other threads and photos given to you that demonstrate a much higher failure rate. See where this goes if we start questioning people's motives without proof? Let's not go there please. I'd prefer to believe people who voluntarily come here and were honest enough to tell you they are posting for somebody not on the forum. I don't believe they have anything to gain by lying and are only trying to do their part to help the community. Quote:
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12-27-2013, 11:53 AM | #93 |
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I applaud Regular Guy for trying to collect this sort of information, and am pleased he understands the error / uncertainty in this type of effort.
My own (hopefully objective) conclusions based on the data presented: 1. Some quantity of S65's have experienced catastrophic failures. It is not accurate, at this time, to quantify the percentage of affected vehicles but it seems to be exceptionally low. 2. I did not quite get how the totals were determined, but these failures do not seem to occur more consistently in one model year versus another (number of data points is too low to draw any substantive conclusions as to a pattern). 3. The failure effects differ - some are main bearings, some are bent rods, etc. No clear pattern has been established. It is not clear if the same cylinders are consistently the issue (some dialogue on cyl 5 was presented). 4. The failure causes differ - overheating, bearing clearance (?), etc. A proper analysis of the failed parts would need to be done to determine more details (i.e. material issue, brittle fracture, overheating due to oil starvation, oil starvation due to clearance issue, etc.). 5. The circumstances and condition of the cars leading up to the failure events are not documented (i.e. there could be a common cause attributed to geography, driving style, etc. that has nothing to do with design and more to do with exceeding design parameters). 6. It is not clear if the failed units have a common source of manufacture or not (this is often a key causal factor in statistical failure analysis over a large population). May be irrelevant, but we just do not have the data yet. What am going to go about? a. Continue to monitor this forum b. Continue to NOT over-rev the engine c. Continue to stay below 3000 RPM's when engine is below optimum temperature (i.e. drive a little more gently when the engine is cold). d. Continue to enjoy the HELL out of this car! |
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12-27-2013, 12:13 PM | #96 | |
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1) at any time on the M3 post forum I've seen the number of active users in the 6,000+ to 10,000. 2) There are 181,000+ registered member specifically to the E92 M3 forum. Which indicates there can be falsely counted # cases. Like the owner, his friend, his cousin, etc.. that are not intentional and self aware. honest or not. 3) In a period of half a month to one month most active members would have seen the title of this thread poll in the sub-forum. It has a special poll icon that is hard to miss. Yet we only see 39 cases. 4) The almost unanimous pool of people who had no engine problems or concerns they will may have already decided to ignore and no even click on this thread (probably rightly so) Ok, I think it is safe to say that by end of January all member votes will be in. At which point I will take the number of cases and divided it by 20,000. As of today that it is only 0.17%. Yes you make up numbers, so can I. You seem to have made a life goal of the activism on this topic. I do understand that you must have personal reasons -as - your car was affected but you seem to be biased. Last edited by V8FunNaturally; 12-27-2013 at 12:26 PM.. |
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12-27-2013, 12:39 PM | #98 | |
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Also, in addition to the 2900 views you have to add the X,000 members who saw the title, didn't have a failure and so didn't view the thread. |
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12-27-2013, 12:40 PM | #99 | ||||||
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Here's how you can test your claims. I strongly encourage you to do this to prove your theory. Start a poll with the following question: If you are a current E9x M3 owner, have you ever blown your motor?If your theory is correct, in six weeks you will have 20000 votes. I look forward to your poll and these very interesting results. Quote:
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12-27-2013, 01:14 PM | #100 | |
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A poll uses a sample of the population, You know like they do in the elections.Some choose not to participate. Example : Candidate x is polling under 30%. It's not 100% accurate but it gives you an idea of what's going on. |
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12-27-2013, 11:39 PM | #101 | ||||
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I personally believe that the E92 M3 is one of the most user abused enthusiast car on the road, due to : 1) increased number of people who leased the M3 over the previous gen. The car is only theirs for a couple of years. They objectively have no invested interest whatsoever to keep the car running after the end of their lease. What is there to stop them to launch it to death daily. Nothing. Ideally the car should be dead one day after they end their lease to make them feel they had their money's worth... Note: their cars may be entirely stock. 2) This one is a personal observation, so do not misrepresent what I am saying. But I think the population of modded cars from a given model is correlated to the proportion of cars of that model that go through abuses. It is an indicator of people wanting to push a car further from what the mfg intended. People (not all, cf #1) who keep their car stock usually take better care of it while modders (not all) need sth more and end up abusing their cars and selling it. There are A LOT of modders on the E92 M3. I know you will say as you told me before there are stock engines that blew up, but that is not accounting for 1) can you trust how it was driven ? 3) Start by removing all supercharged engines from the list. Unfortunately you will never know if the remaining ones may have been abused. Quote:
- They probably saw this thread but decided not to participate. In fact some of them who abused their cars might finally have a conscience. Quote:
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12-28-2013, 12:11 AM | #102 | |||||
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Lastly, if you want to comment on that thread, maybe you should do so in the correct place. This isn't the place for it. |
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12-28-2013, 10:24 AM | #103 | |
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Also your numbers are total rubbish. Total views of a certain thread doesn't mean much. Just like someone said it's possible most of those viewers don't even have an M3. Also I think multiple views by the same person are counted as multiple numbers. So for example if I click on this thread every day for the next couple of weeks, I believe that will be counted as 14 extra viewers on that thread. And that 181000 number of members is for the entire Bimmerpost forum. It's certainly ridiculous to suggest there are 181000 members on the M3 forum when BMW only made a bit over 60000 cars. |
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12-28-2013, 10:54 AM | #104 | |
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12-28-2013, 10:56 AM | #105 |
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I agree with the statement about the e9x m3 being one of the most abused cars out there, I read on this site about members tuning and supercharging new cars all the time and all the colourful statements about driving the shit out of the car.
How the motor was treated, abused, modified etc. may have little relevance on the bearing clearance thread but should have major relevance on this thread because it seems obvious to me that when you drive a car beyond what the manufacturer has designed it to be driven then the motor will blow at some point. |
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12-28-2013, 11:01 AM | #106 | |
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So is the N54...how many N54's have been produced? A lot of M3 owners used to say the S65 was more reliable than the N54, looking at these numbers, I disagree. Also the rod bearings issue affected mainly 08's. |
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01-02-2014, 05:21 AM | #107 |
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So I got a PM from someone collating data on these failures. I haven't kept up with all the threads. What are people trying to achieve with these threads? Is this to gather evidence for a class action, because I hope so? Regular guy, has your engine failed too?
My experience is BMW and also BMW Germany don't give a shit. |
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01-02-2014, 05:44 AM | #108 | |
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I will also be Messaging owners who recorded failures in a previous thread to get their information. My car is fine and will be under extended warranty as long as I own it so this is just as a matter of interest for me. I'll add the data to this post and the "bearing" thread when its all in. I've asked for: Location Month/year of production MT/DCT Mileage If Engine modified If ECU tuned Reason for fail. Last edited by SenorFunkyPants; 01-02-2014 at 05:52 AM.. |
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01-02-2014, 09:36 PM | #109 | |
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01-02-2014, 09:39 PM | #110 | |
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Keep in mind, any engine that was replaced by BMW was not root caused for failures. Only motors that were disassembled could be diagnosed for failures. I have a feeling you'll get mostly hearsay responses for "cause of failure" questions. |
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