Nope - they ain't selling

[lucid]

Originally Posted by 2002 Tii

If I underestand correctly; the general feeling here is that Moss has sadistic tendencies to wake up in the morning create false stories to get under the skin of M3 fans because he is an enemy who drives an Audi?

Look, you probably mean well, but I am not sure that you've been around this forum long enough to have witnessed what has happened in the past with "some" RS4 owners posting rubbish on this forum to stir up stuff and project whatever--to the extent that every other thread degenerated into some meaningless my car is better than the new M3 discussion. It has happened with some posters who own 335s as well (I am just saying some, so don't flame me for that). You can do a search and find some of those discussions. I, for one, don't want that to happen as I do rely on this forum as my primary source of information on the M3.

[2002 Tii]

Originally Posted by lucid

I, for one, don't want that to happen as I do rely on this forum as my primary source of information on the M3.

I agree.

[Keto]

Ditto, I come here to read about M3's, not for everyone's general "theory of cars."

[Leg]

You reap what you sow.

[mesier1111]

Originally Posted by moss

A month or so after the launch in the UK and heaps of M3's are available - most just sitting on forecourts - I’ve been watching three cars (at list price or below) sit for over three weeks now. I guess the game has just moved on since the E46 launch.

New M3 - brilliant car - but no longer with the residual halo that it once had - the E92 is gonna be very expensive to own.

Makes sense, an Audi owner comes on the and posts a short post about all these M3's sitting on the lot, and posted pics and source information for this statement.......oh, wait a second, he didnt.

[mesier1111]

Originally Posted by Keto

Sweet, now you can upgrade from the RS4 for less money.

best post in this thread

[Ray33]

Originally Posted by aerisolphaln

Hmm, very interesting.

What would the point of waiting until January and a new year be? I don't get it at all, but I'm no business man.

Why would you want to register a car in November of 07 and kill the resale value even further when you go to get rid of it in two years. Wait a couple of weeks and you are selling an 08 car. take it now and you will get less at resale as it is an 07 (doesnt matter that there is only a few weeks of a difference).
Also in Ireland your number plate states the year of first registration e.g. 08 D 19123 (08 for the year D for your county and a sequential number for each car registered). So nobody wants to buy an 07 at this late stage of the year.

[Ray33]

Originally Posted by AidenL

What neck of the woods are you in Ray? Donegal here

What spec did you go for?

Aiden i am in Dublin.

I went for standard Irish spec (obviously!) plus the following:

Alpine white
novillo Fox Red interior
19" wheels
Comfort access
Climate comfort screen
front seat heating
sliding front armrest
PDC front and rear
adaptive headlights
high beam assistant
voice control
bluetooth phone prep
Logic 7 hifi
USB
sun protection glass
tracker system
and nav disk

Picking it up on the 4th of Jan.

[moss]

Not really applicable in the Uk - plates change in March and September each year.

[moss]

PS. Whilst having a go at me, lets not forget that I went to the effort to provide scans of virtually all the initial road tests for you guys - (moss aka m3junkie) - I get the message from this thread - i'll leave you in peace and return to my audi forum - I'll leave someone else to post up the latest EVO 'long termer' review... etc..

[DonM3]

Please post pics when you get it. I'm torn between ordering Jerez black/Fox red and Alpine white/Fox red and would love to see some decent pics of the latter combination.

Originally Posted by Ray33

Aiden i am in Dublin.

I went for standard Irish spec (obviously!) plus the following:

Alpine white
novillo Fox Red interior
19" wheels
Comfort access
Climate comfort screen
front seat heating
sliding front armrest
PDC front and rear
adaptive headlights
high beam assistant
voice control
bluetooth phone prep
Logic 7 hifi
USB
sun protection glass
tracker system
and nav disk

Picking it up on the 4th of Jan.

[Ray33]

Originally Posted by DonM3

Please post pics when you get it. I'm torn between ordering Jerez black/Fox red and Alpine white/Fox red and would love to see some decent pics of the latter combination.

no problem will do...the killer is that it is sitting in the dealers now just waiting to be collected....:sad0147:

[DonM3]

why the wait to pick it up then?

Originally Posted by Ray33

no problem will do...the killer is that it is sitting in the dealers now just waiting to be collected....:sad0147:

[AidenL]

Originally Posted by Ray33

Aiden i am in Dublin.

I went for standard Irish spec (obviously!) plus the following:

Alpine white
novillo Fox Red interior
19" wheels
Comfort access
Climate comfort screen
front seat heating
sliding front armrest
PDC front and rear
adaptive headlights
high beam assistant
voice control
bluetooth phone prep
Logic 7 hifi
USB
sun protection glass
tracker system
and nav disk

Picking it up on the 4th of Jan.

Might I have seen your car in the showroom up Glasnevin way? Very nice if so

[moss]

Here we are doubting voices:

http://cgi.ebay.co.uk/BMW-M3-2007-57...QQcmdZViewItem

Even at the buy it now price that's £6000 ($12000) drop in 2 months and 1400 miles - and who know's what it will actually sell for?

The E46 did not do that. That was the only point of this post - I was not saying the M3 wasn't great - just pointing out that here in the UK, the residuals are not strong like they were on the e46.

[13eastie]

Originally Posted by moss

Here we are doubting voices:

http://cgi.ebay.co.uk/BMW-M3-2007-57...QQcmdZViewItem

Even at the buy it now price that's £6000 ($12000) drop in 2 months and 1400 miles - and who know's what it will actually sell for?

The E46 did not do that. That was the only point of this post - I was not saying the M3 wasn't great - just pointing out that here in the UK, the residuals are not strong like they were on the e46.

I continue to be amazed at the mental jumps you seem happy to make. At the risk of pointing out the bleedin' obvious, this is an auction that is still accepting bids! Do you actually know what the sale price will be?

You are trying to indicate a trend by plotting a single point on a graph! For all you know, this guy could have suddenly come into a desperate need for cash (maybe someone he knows needs an urgent operation, who knows?).

And what should we conclude if the car doesn't sell on Ebay?

1) Maybe the seller figures that people might expect a discount for buying a third-hand car with a number plate that cannot be HPI-checked in a less desirable colour on Ebay from someone who believes he has been driving an E93 M3 for two months? (Because I wouldn't touch this with a barge-pole).
2) Maybe the seller got lucky and his car sold under the counter or elsewhere?
3) Or perhaps the M3 really is depreciating at almost 50% per annum

Finally, of course, before our American brethren go into a state of panic, the buy-it-now price listed does not equate in USD terms to a drop of $12,000 since this actually represents 20% of an anticipated $60k price tag, rather than the 10% I calculate here.

[moss]

I based the above on the buy it now price - i think it is logical to suggest that it will not sell for above the buy it now price! Though i would have thought that was 'bleeding obvious'.

I think you are jumping ahead by stating 50% in the first year. 20% is more realistic i would think.

Why the car is in a less desirable colour only you know. It was the lauch colour - i doubt BMW thought it was undesirable.

[Keto]

Originally Posted by moss

Here we are doubting voices:

http://cgi.ebay.co.uk/BMW-M3-2007-57...QQcmdZViewItem

The auction seller notes the long waitlist in the listing. I guess he is a doubter in your theory too.

[13eastie]

Originally Posted by moss

I based the above on the buy it now price - i think it is logical to suggest that it will not sell for above the buy it now price! Though i would have thought that was 'bleeding obvious'.

I think you are jumping ahead by stating 50% in the first year. 20% is more realistic i would think.

Why the car is in a less desirable colour only you know. It was the lauch colour - i doubt BMW thought it was undesirable.

The maths is sound and is based on your preferred sale price:

(1-(5700/57200))^(12/2)=0.53

But my point really was that this is no way to establish a trend.

It is a fact that this colour combination has been shown to be one of the least desirable. But don't take my word for it. Look at the poll.

Thankfully, I can tell you that this seller's desire for a quick sale is due neither to impecuniosity nor morbidity.

[lucid]

Moss, have you actually read the posts that discussed why it is too early to make conclusions about residuals based on a small sample size? If you have, why do you keep on small sample sizes? Single datapoints can mean just about anything. How do you know this car wasn't wrecked, or that this guys needs the money tomorrow, or that this guy is rich and doesn't care and so on? And have do you know that this would not have happened with the E46 M3? Did you actively search auction sites at that point to know there was no such thing?

You need to come up with larger "n"s, and then, depending on the trend the data establish, you can make an argument. But the point is that a large "n" survey is not possible at this time since there aren't a whole lot of transactions taking place. What is so hard to understand about that?

[Leg]

Originally Posted by moss

Here we are doubting voices:

http://cgi.ebay.co.uk/BMW-M3-2007-57...QQcmdZViewItem

Even at the buy it now price that's £6000 ($12000) drop in 2 months and 1400 miles - and who know's what it will actually sell for?

The E46 did not do that. That was the only point of this post - I was not saying the M3 wasn't great - just pointing out that here in the UK, the residuals are not strong like they were on the e46.

I take it everyone has noticed that the next buyer will be the third owner on that car? I wouldnt be surprised if it did sell for less than list, so it should!

Whoever buys it will take a hit when they sell it on to the 4th owner (probably be a 4 owner car within 2 years) so they would expect to buy it cheaper now.

So, your argument is that a 2 owner, used, pre specced, ex demo M3 is worth less than a brand spanking, spec it how I want it, never driven by anyone else M3?

Err, yeah, obviously. In fact, to paraphrase your goodself, bleeding obviously

[JerezBlue!]

Originally Posted by moss

A month or so after the launch in the UK and heaps of M3's are available - most just sitting on forecourts - I’ve been watching three cars (at list price or below) sit for over three weeks now. I guess the game has just moved on since the E46 launch.

New M3 - brilliant car - but no longer with the residual halo that it once had - the E92 is gonna be very expensive to own.

The UK seems to be slowly but surely moving into recessionary times; or at least spending power is getting slammed right now.

This is why you can get loads of M cars and Porsche's all over the place. And then BMW increase supply of the M3 like there is no tomorrow.

It's quite simple really - buy the M3 cause you want it -you are most likely going to love it. Then, don't look back for at least 5 years!

Strangely, the Audi R8 is one of the few cars actually bucking this trend. It'll be interesting to see when its residuals start going south.

JB!