BMW M3 Forum (E90 E92)

BMW Garage BMW Meets Register Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read


Go Back   M3Post - BMW M3 Forum > BIMMERPOST Universal Forums > Off-Topic Discussions Board
 
Post Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
      02-14-2013, 08:50 AM   #3147
PSUSMU
Captain
95
Rep
985
Posts

Drives: 2008 Porsche 911 Carrera S
Join Date: Jun 2012
Location: Falls Church/Merrifield, VA

iTrader: (3)

Any thoughts on BBRY today? It's throwing me for a spin.
Put in a buy order at 13.10, but I missed it. Now kicking myself.

Last edited by PSUSMU; 02-14-2013 at 11:24 AM..
Appreciate 0
      02-15-2013, 03:45 PM   #3148
mact3333
Captain
mact3333's Avatar
United_States
121
Rep
876
Posts

Drives: 16' YMB/Blk F82
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: Portland Area

iTrader: (1)

Posted earlier this week that I am seeing a IT top and needed to hedge all my long positions...sold half my BBRY earlier this week and put a stop on rest at break even point...will hold FB and AAPL as I am hedged with short positions.
Appreciate 0
      02-15-2013, 03:59 PM   #3149
M5Rlz
Colonel
249
Rep
2,202
Posts

Drives: R8, f10m59(Rip), m4, GTR
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: MD

iTrader: (3)

I got pummeled on that CTL 22% drop
Appreciate 0
      02-18-2013, 08:28 AM   #3150
slamako
Metal cutter
slamako's Avatar
Canada
15
Rep
97
Posts

Drives: 135i 08 6MT Sed Red Met.
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Ontario Canada

iTrader: (0)

Vanity--are you setting up at TVIX trade? I'm eyeing that this week. Volitility at an all time low and with sequestration looming, I'm sure some Vol will get kicked back in.

The only kicker is how much government intervention (money printing) will suppress the volitility.

--------------------
Lastly-anybody else here a subscriber to TastyTrade?
Appreciate 0
      02-20-2013, 08:44 PM   #3151
r0wr
Lieutenant
573
Rep
509
Posts

Drives: Beater
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: Los Angeles, CA

iTrader: (0)

Rotation is just barley starting: out of hi betas, into staples (KO, MCD), and into other dividend paying stocks (safer). If you haven't closed out some of your longs, now is the time to do so. We're in for a correction. IMO, today's decline is considered a buy and we'll try one more time up before we see a true top.
Appreciate 0
      02-20-2013, 08:59 PM   #3152
Vanity
Private First Class
Vanity's Avatar
Canada
252
Rep
123
Posts

Drives: BMW E90 LCI
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: BC, Canada

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by slamako View Post
Vanity--are you setting up at TVIX trade? I'm eyeing that this week. Volitility at an all time low and with sequestration looming, I'm sure some Vol will get kicked back in.

The only kicker is how much government intervention (money printing) will suppress the volitility.

--------------------
Lastly-anybody else here a subscriber to TastyTrade?
Just happened to click the thread and saw my name! After the +10 move in SPX yesterday I exited my vol short position. I was expecting a dip today but I don't think anyone saw -20 SPX points today. Here's the kicker. Today the index lost -1.25% but cash VIX popped 19%. Not sure if you're familiar with vol but that is much too high of a jump. Usually correlated around +5-9% on the spot VIX when the index sells off 1% like this. Instead, we saw +19% which means we either go to hell tomorrow to justify this VIX pop (another -20 point day) or this vol is coming down. Here's a fact though: 10% of the VIX call volume was from ONE very large trader. This trader SOLD his long vol positions into the close today, which tells me even he realizes this was overdone today. I am short fol as of the close of the index. XIV @ $21.98. Time stamped.

Quote:
Originally Posted by r0wr View Post
Rotation is just barley starting: out of hi betas, into staples (KO, MCD), and into other dividend paying stocks (safer). If you haven't closed out some of your longs, now is the time to do so. We're in for a correction. IMO, today's decline is considered a buy and we'll try one more time up before we see a true top.
Vol would agree with you. If we get a flat to up day tmr, $vix could drop 6-12%, driving down futures by a lesser amount (probably 4-8%). This would hurt the most people. We would run up again, make a second lower high and then kaboom (possibility). $vix spike might have just been a warning flare, not the actual Calvary yet.

P.s. never touch TVIX, the vehicle does not track it's NAV correctly and will piss you off trying to capitalize on VIX spikes. Go with VXX. Never touch 2x Vix etfs unless you seriously want to not be able to cover your losses when it goes down.
__________________
Appreciate 0
      02-21-2013, 12:50 AM   #3153
r0wr
Lieutenant
573
Rep
509
Posts

Drives: Beater
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: Los Angeles, CA

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Vanity View Post
Just happened to click the thread and saw my name! After the +10 move in SPX yesterday I exited my vol short position. I was expecting a dip today but I don't think anyone saw -20 SPX points today. Here's the kicker. Today the index lost -1.25% but cash VIX popped 19%. Not sure if you're familiar with vol but that is much too high of a jump. Usually correlated around +5-9% on the spot VIX when the index sells off 1% like this. Instead, we saw +19% which means we either go to hell tomorrow to justify this VIX pop (another -20 point day) or this vol is coming down. Here's a fact though: 10% of the VIX call volume was from ONE very large trader. This trader SOLD his long vol positions into the close today, which tells me even he realizes this was overdone today. I am short fol as of the close of the index. XIV @ $21.98. Time stamped.



Vol would agree with you. If we get a flat to up day tmr, $vix could drop 6-12%, driving down futures by a lesser amount (probably 4-8%). This would hurt the most people. We would run up again, make a second lower high and then kaboom (possibility). $vix spike might have just been a warning flare, not the actual Calvary yet.

P.s. never touch TVIX, the vehicle does not track it's NAV correctly and will piss you off trying to capitalize on VIX spikes. Go with VXX. Never touch 2x Vix etfs unless you seriously want to not be able to cover your losses when it goes down.
I agree with what you said. There is actually a 75% chance of an up day tomorrow from my back test given such a big spike in VIX with such a small down day from SP500. In terms of the intermediate, I'm still bullish. Home builders took a fat hit today a well. Consider shorting XHB if you agree.
Appreciate 0
      02-21-2013, 12:53 AM   #3154
amanda hor$t
Banned
84
Rep
208
Posts

Drives: a380
Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: ny ny

iTrader: (0)

still holding steady with my french and german big caps here... yawn

Last edited by amanda hor$t; 02-21-2013 at 01:07 AM..
Appreciate 0
      02-21-2013, 07:16 AM   #3155
roastbeef
Lieutenant General
roastbeef's Avatar
United_States
11567
Rep
12,709
Posts

Drives: E92 M3
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Orange County, CA

iTrader: (4)

thoughts on SNY (sony)?
__________________
Instagram; @roastbeefmike
Appreciate 0
      02-21-2013, 09:12 AM   #3156
mact3333
Captain
mact3333's Avatar
United_States
121
Rep
876
Posts

Drives: 16' YMB/Blk F82
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: Portland Area

iTrader: (1)

Quote:
Originally Posted by mact3333 View Post
Posted earlier this week that I am seeing a IT top and needed to hedge all my long positions...sold half my BBRY earlier this week and put a stop on rest at break even point...will hold FB and AAPL as I am hedged with short positions.

Called for IT top a week ago...hope you guys listened...yeah the big picture over the next year is still up but hard to ride out a IT top unless you hedge your longs with short positions.

Divergences showing up weeks ago....sentiment was too high...need a reset.
Appreciate 0
      02-21-2013, 01:23 PM   #3157
mact3333
Captain
mact3333's Avatar
United_States
121
Rep
876
Posts

Drives: 16' YMB/Blk F82
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: Portland Area

iTrader: (1)

anyone getting afraid yet?....prob not...too early for fear...that will come abit later...


.........
Appreciate 0
      02-21-2013, 03:16 PM   #3158
slamako
Metal cutter
slamako's Avatar
Canada
15
Rep
97
Posts

Drives: 135i 08 6MT Sed Red Met.
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Ontario Canada

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Vanity View Post

P.s. never touch TVIX, the vehicle does not track it's NAV correctly and will piss you off trying to capitalize on VIX spikes. Go with VXX. Never touch 2x Vix etfs unless you seriously want to not be able to cover your losses when it goes down.
Thanks for the tip. New to Vol trading. I'm planning to jump out by month's end. I want to have fear and uncertainty brew over the weekend.

Would you say the same applies for any leveraged (double/triple) underlying?

Since you mentioned this, I will watch this trade tighter. Thanks.
I'm on the right side of the trade (thus far) but will watch the decay.
Appreciate 0
      02-21-2013, 03:29 PM   #3159
PSUSMU
Captain
95
Rep
985
Posts

Drives: 2008 Porsche 911 Carrera S
Join Date: Jun 2012
Location: Falls Church/Merrifield, VA

iTrader: (3)

Quote:
Originally Posted by mact3333 View Post
anyone getting afraid yet?....prob not...too early for fear...that will come abit later...


.........
Scared money don't make money.
Appreciate 0
      02-21-2013, 11:20 PM   #3160
Vanity
Private First Class
Vanity's Avatar
Canada
252
Rep
123
Posts

Drives: BMW E90 LCI
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: BC, Canada

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by slamako View Post
Thanks for the tip. New to Vol trading. I'm planning to jump out by month's end. I want to have fear and uncertainty brew over the weekend.

Would you say the same applies for any leveraged (double/triple) underlying?

Since you mentioned this, I will watch this trade tighter. Thanks.
I'm on the right side of the trade (thus far) but will watch the decay.
TVIX.IV will tell you how much the product should be worth. Tbh, choose UVXY over TVIX if you are going to be doing a 2x VIX long. Just remember that the collapse of volatility is fast and going at 2x the speed is dangerous when you're on the wrong side. Case in point, UVXY dropping 10% in 30 mins today.

Also, I averaged my XIV position today into the black. Sold earlier in the day and then bought back into XIV at $20.89, right before that epic vol collapse today. VIX was definitely over priced on the ST and this will cause a bounce back rally that might go to 1520 or even 1530 before a large (possible) correction takes place. 1500 held well today. As of this writing, SPX was up around +6 on ES.

Quote:
Originally Posted by PSUSMU View Post
Scared money don't make money.
+1. Money must be an army that we send out daily. And what we want is for them to take back prisoners so we can send them out to get more prisoners.
__________________
Appreciate 0
      02-22-2013, 01:46 PM   #3161
slamako
Metal cutter
slamako's Avatar
Canada
15
Rep
97
Posts

Drives: 135i 08 6MT Sed Red Met.
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Ontario Canada

iTrader: (0)

Thanks Vanity-I locked in a profit in TVIX and got out. Thanks for the tip.

Waiting for a GLD, SLV bottom and go.
Will try my first option trades (covered calls and naked short puts) once I get my account authorized.

To All-any advice to a newbie in Options? Should I go directly into a spreading strategy? (verticals?)
Appreciate 0
      02-22-2013, 02:50 PM   #3162
PSUSMU
Captain
95
Rep
985
Posts

Drives: 2008 Porsche 911 Carrera S
Join Date: Jun 2012
Location: Falls Church/Merrifield, VA

iTrader: (3)

BBRY is scaring me. Nibbled on a lil more at $13.25.
Appreciate 0
      02-22-2013, 03:08 PM   #3163
Inspired
Colonel
Inspired's Avatar
148
Rep
2,368
Posts

Drives: 335i
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: California

iTrader: (2)

BBRY is all over the place. If $13 don't hold I can see it go back to $12 really quickly
Appreciate 0
      02-23-2013, 01:39 AM   #3164
r0wr
Lieutenant
573
Rep
509
Posts

Drives: Beater
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: Los Angeles, CA

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by r0wr View Post
Rotation is just barley starting: out of hi betas, into staples (KO, MCD), and into other dividend paying stocks (safer). If you haven't closed out some of your longs, now is the time to do so. We're in for a correction. IMO, today's decline is considered a buy and we'll try one more time up before we see a true top.
As stated, the declines were considered a buy and I still see us trying the top again before we see a true reversal.
Appreciate 0
      02-23-2013, 12:52 PM   #3165
Hisam135i
Major
Hisam135i's Avatar
United_States
54
Rep
1,166
Posts

Drives: 335i
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: Irvine, CA

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by slamako
Thanks Vanity-I locked in a profit in TVIX and got out. Thanks for the tip.

Waiting for a GLD, SLV bottom and go.
Will try my first option trades (covered calls and naked short puts) once I get my account authorized.

To All-any advice to a newbie in Options? Should I go directly into a spreading strategy? (verticals?)
If your looking at GLD watch for support at 155
__________________
2008 Monaco Blue 335i | Terracotta | Premium | Auto | Comfort Access | Matte-black Grills | Carbon Fiber Splitters | 20% Tint | 1- point E9x Picture Game | Staggered 19' VMR V701 | Legal Disclaimer: My posts on this website cannot be held against me in any issues, such as warranty claims. |
Appreciate 0
      02-23-2013, 01:58 PM   #3166
Hisam135i
Major
Hisam135i's Avatar
United_States
54
Rep
1,166
Posts

Drives: 335i
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: Irvine, CA

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by r0wr
Quote:
Originally Posted by r0wr View Post
Rotation is just barley starting: out of hi betas, into staples (KO, MCD), and into other dividend paying stocks (safer). If you haven't closed out some of your longs, now is the time to do so. We're in for a correction. IMO, today's decline is considered a buy and we'll try one more time up before we see a true top.
As stated, the declines were considered a buy and I still see us trying the top again before we see a true reversal.
Agreed, I'm looking at a turnaround in almost all currencies against the dollar. Meaning the dollar should lose some value in the coming week or so leading to equities rallying
__________________
2008 Monaco Blue 335i | Terracotta | Premium | Auto | Comfort Access | Matte-black Grills | Carbon Fiber Splitters | 20% Tint | 1- point E9x Picture Game | Staggered 19' VMR V701 | Legal Disclaimer: My posts on this website cannot be held against me in any issues, such as warranty claims. |
Appreciate 0
      02-25-2013, 02:56 PM   #3167
slamako
Metal cutter
slamako's Avatar
Canada
15
Rep
97
Posts

Drives: 135i 08 6MT Sed Red Met.
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Ontario Canada

iTrader: (0)

Whoa! What a finish!
Out of TVIX, but got in VXX midday for some of the action!
Beginning of the (minor) correction gents?
Appreciate 0
      02-25-2013, 03:22 PM   #3168
mact3333
Captain
mact3333's Avatar
United_States
121
Rep
876
Posts

Drives: 16' YMB/Blk F82
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: Portland Area

iTrader: (1)

is anyone afraid yet?...prob not...you will be...

Did anyone accept my warnings over a week ago?...act one it?...prob not...but you will...
Appreciate 0
Post Reply

Bookmarks

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 01:16 AM.




m3post
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.
1Addicts.com, BIMMERPOST.com, E90Post.com, F30Post.com, M3Post.com, ZPost.com, 5Post.com, 6Post.com, 7Post.com, XBimmers.com logo and trademark are properties of BIMMERPOST