Stock market tips and experiences

[EvosM3]

Farcebook has completely ruined the already poor relationship between the retail investor with Wall-Street. It's sad that so many people lost money but they should have know what they were getting into.

[Hisam135i]

Originally Posted by EvosM3

Farcebook has completely ruined the already poor relationship between the retail investor with Wall-Street. It's sad that so many people lost money but they should have know what they were getting into.

+1 it still amazes me how over publicized it was best rule to not lose money: If its on cnbc stay away

[Vanity]

Anybody seeing the incredible move in US 10 year yields? Anybody seeing the dollar breakout again today? And the euro collapsing? Selling pressure being compacted into a smaller trading week, for sure. The move in treasuries and us dollar tells me much more downside is coming.

Btw, if things get pretty bad (this isn't a timeline thing, just a reminder I guess) and the markets crash, do not trap yourself in stocks. ETFs are the only thing liquid enough to get out.

[EvosM3]

Another day of selling tomorrow? I thought about stacking up on JPM puts but ran out of time and the order didn't fill. I still have puts though, mostly GOOG. The Greeks will cause the European markets to collapse for sure and I'm sure it'll happen over the weekend or Friday afternoon, and that's to be expected.

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by EvosM3

Another day of selling tomorrow? I thought about stacking up on JPM puts but ran out of time and the order didn't fill. I still have puts though, mostly GOOG. The Greeks will cause the European markets to collapse for sure and I'm sure it'll happen over the weekend or Friday afternoon, and that's to be expected.

I'm expecting Spain to be our Lehman, not Greece. You get collapses from TBTF's, and Greece can fail. Spain cannot, and that's the trigger to the gun you should be eyeing right now. The 10-year Spanish bonds now soaring to a record of 6.5%, never has it been this high. Their 2-years are now over 5% because Bankia needs funding from the public, or government, or somewhere. And look at our current US treasury market, now the lowest recorded yield in history at 1.64% for our 10 year. Money is flying out of equities and into bonds. Look at the move in US dollar again, keeps making a new 52-week high every day almost. Made a new one today, and the Euro will collapse through 1.24. I've been betting on it to collapse down from late April when it was 1.32, and I expect the move to bottom somewhere 1.20 for the Euro.

ECB came out and said no more Bond-buying programs, no more LTRO3. ECB told governments they are "own their own". Chinese government has just come out and said the exact same thing; "We have no interest in launching any stimulus". And the FED will bring no QE3 or Twist extension this June. The end game is approaching very soon, and June will not be a pretty month. That's why I said a while back I expected a collapse not in May, but in June/July time frame. We shall see.

I should write a post sometime about how Solvent Banks can actually be very insolvent.

[r0wr]

Stay short or stay out of the market!

[Vanity]

Short covering rally today after news of IMF bailing out Spain. But look how quick the rumours prove to be, IMF is actually not in any negotiations with Spain at all about financial assistance, nor are they planning any.

Looks like the big boys are pumping rumors into the circuit to load up some short covers before this thing goes down. Ignore the tape, it's meant to distract you today. Concentrate on the USD, Euro, and yield movements. All have hit extremes, day after day. This is a telling sign of some very bad things to happen.

Either 1) US 10 & 30 yields, Spain 2 & 10 yields, USD, Euro, German Bunds, Commodities, Semi-conductor markets, Euro/Asian markets, and everything else are over-extended relative to the US equity markets, and they need to come down and reverse so that US Equities can take off,

OR,

2) Equities does not belong at these current levels and has to make an extreme move itself to re-establish equilibrium with all of the technical signals atm. This scenario is a crash. And I believe we are walking the fine line here, and a crash is either happening now or within the next days, weeks, or 2 months (June-July). This theory is completely invalid however, if more Stimulus arises. And as I've said in the previous post:

ECB came out and said no more Bond-buying programs, no more LTRO3. ECB told governments they are "own their own". Chinese government has just come out and said the exact same thing; "We have no interest in launching any stimulus". And the FED will bring no QE3 or Twist extension this June. The end game is approaching very soon, and June will not be a pretty month. That's why I said a while back I expected a collapse not in May, but in June/July time frame. We shall see.

Double-dip recession will come this year. I will probably re-quote this post in a future posting to time-mark it. Bring your attentions to the rollover in US data and the thick morass jobs numbers have had a hard time advancing through.

[BayMoWe335]

Originally Posted by BayMoWe335

I'm long AAPL too...just stay patient and buy more if you have the stomach.

I agree they need some hype to boost excitement again (although their last earnings report says the stock needs no hype), but they are trading at 7 times forward earnings minus cash.

It's frustrating to see the best tech company in the world struggle and trade so cheaply, especially after the monster quarter. They had a perfect quarter, have zero debt, $100+ billion in cash, and will start paying a dividend. Yet companies like FB are valued at $100b with $3.7b in sales? LNKD? SF.com? It's a joke, but makes me feel people are doubting AAPL's ability to keep momentum with such large numbers. This may be true, but I believe AAPL has another leg up before it starts to decline for good. We just haven't seen any evidence in the numbers that they are slowing down, but AAPL is having to "prove" it every quarter. That's not the best thing for a stock. I think right now AAPL is being manipulated to shake out the weak hands.

Also, the iPhone 5 is going to be a beast. Mark it down.

As I predicted (and put money where my mouth is), it's already up a lot from here, but I believe AAPL is setting up to break out. That is, unless the entire market tanks...then all bets are off.

[r0wr]

Originally Posted by BayMoWe335

As I predicted (and put money where my mouth is), it's already up a lot from here, but I believe AAPL is setting up to break out. That is, unless the entire market tanks...then all bets are off.

AAPL already bourght above it's ascending triangle break out by a little and is riding the top of its trend line. Target is around 595.

Vanity, what do you think about the market going onto the fifth elliot wave on the daily/weekly chart? We seem to be completing wave four right now and we should be seeing wave five soon. Not my chart but this is what I'm referring to. http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/wp-c...PlanWeekly.png

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by r0wr

AAPL already bourght above it's ascending triangle break out by a little and is riding the top of its trend line. Target is around 595.

Vanity, what do you think about the market going onto the fifth elliot wave on the daily/weekly chart? We seem to be completing wave four right now and we should be seeing wave five soon. Not my chart but this is what I'm referring to. http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/wp-c...PlanWeekly.png

I think for EW I would put the count currently at a Major C wave down.

[Vanity]

That sandwich is us. Welcome Mama Bear

[r0wr]

Originally Posted by BayMoWe335

As I predicted (and put money where my mouth is), it's already up a lot from here, but I believe AAPL is setting up to break out. That is, unless the entire market tanks...then all bets are off.

Looks like AAPL was a rising wedge instead of an ascending triangle.

Vanity, do you not wanna buy this dip? I sort of do..

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by r0wr

Looks like AAPL was a rising wedge instead of an ascending triangle.

Vanity, do you not wanna buy this dip? I sort of do..

Buy at your own risks. There is a possibility if we close above 1290 (lol) on the SPX that this will be a ST bottom where the bulls might rally a bit (nothing extreme). But I'm favouring this being an out-right crash, and definitely worst than last July/August. Tbh, the 25-30 handle down we're seeing today on the tape is not even in panic territory yet. Remember last year? 60-80 handles everyday.

And I'm updating my chart from last week.

[r0wr]

Vanity, $NYMO speaks volumes and is one indicator that cannot be excluded. I say retrace to 1300 before we fall

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by r0wr

Vanity, $NYMO speaks volumes and is one indicator that cannot be excluded. I say retrace to 1300 before we fall

Put up the NYSE chart you're looking at. From what I can see, there is plenty of room to fall before a bottom occurs?

[Vanity]

Dear mother of goodness, I hope everyone followed the last few posts and sold everything long....

Rowr, you didn't buy into the close for Friday, did you? :/

[EvosM3]

I'm still 40% long and am heavily hedged with inverse index ETF's and puts. Lol, I think we will have a repeat of 2008 by August.

[r0wr]

I'm still a couple k into SPXU @ 50 (well, 10 before the split) and I've been in TVIX since thursday so I'm good right now. I bought LNKD options for their June ER so I might lose a little on that but other than that, I'm not long at all.

[Hisam135i]

Originally Posted by r0wr

I'm still a couple k into SPXU @ 50 (well, 10 before the split) and I've been in TVIX since thursday so I'm good right now. I bought LNKD options for their June ER so I might lose a little on that but other than that, I'm not long at all.

I also picked up some MS calls for June Might lose a bit on but other than that I'm short so it's fine

[Hisam135i]

Glad I was up early when the market was up and was able to sell those calls

[Vanity]

Big intraday reversal, today was supposed to be our firework crash down. It didn't happen. Market participants are now trying to hold this house of cards together with rumors: master plan in Germany, ECB talks on Wed, Bernanke on thurs. today's intraday reversal on the day of a crash tells me we will be seeing one final pump and dump (possibly).

Scenario 1: we rally to 1290-1340 on news, that will ultimately disappoint. This sets us up for an absolutely enormous meltdown (more than scenario 2) so it would be good to buy shorts all the way up to these levels.

Scenario 2: this is the resemblance of August 3rd, 2011, where the day looked like a bottom but then was follow by 60 and 80 handles down the following next day. Is would take us to, in his scenario, 1200 before a relief, and then resume the crash (ultimate target 900-1050).

[EvosM3]

Hmmm. A strange week so far, we still have room to the upside and I will probably unload my calls tomorrow and play whatever happens next safely. Doesn't Bernanke speak on Thursday?