Will the Real Estate market improve?

[jesm]

Everybody knows the US has been hit hard with the real estate market. Houses are being sold at least 50-150-200k less than what their value was before. People having hard time getting credits from banks, crappy appreciations, etc. etc.

My questions to you guys, is it going to get better or is it just going to stay crappy as it is now?
Reason for asking im debating about selling a house. Reason for selling is that I dont use it as often, and leasing is not an option.

I appreciate your input. Thanks, JESM.

[BTM]

If you don't need to sell, I wouldn't sell now. Still a buyer's market, but it won't be forever

[Buegie]

I think the worst part is that prices have been low for a while and anyone who can afford to hold out is waiting to sell their house. That means that there are alot of people out there who want to sell but are waiting for prices to go back up. As soon as prices start to inch up, all of these people will try to sell, the market will be flooded, and prices will fall again. Just my theory, but I think prices are going to be depressed for a looong time

[number335]

are you gonna short sale the property? why can't you rent it out? if you can make the payments, wait it out. the real estate market may take a while to recover, but your credit will take a hit if you short sale or foreclose. if you can rent it out, do that instead.

check with a real estate attorney. if you sell for a loss, i don't think you can write it off if you are the primary resident. if it is used as a rental property, you may be able to write off the loss.

[jesm]

Thank you all for your quick replies and comments, really appreciate them.

The reason why I cannot lease the house, is because by the end of the year I will have to pay taxes and insurance on it. All that will be far more than the money I could lease it for. If I wanted to cover that I would have to lease it for probably 1800 at least monthly to come up even.

I can come up with the payments for the house, but it sucks paying all this mortgage for a house you spend maybe 1 or 2 days every other week.

The big dilemma sell now at crappy price or wait until God knows how much time to see if it will get better....

Thanks again for your input.

[number335]

check with your lender to see if they can do a loan modification for you. they may either give you a lower rate, extend your loan out or give you some debt relief to make your payments lower. they may be able to make it low enough for you to rent it or make your payments more affordable. but check with a tax adviser anytime you receive debt relief from a lender since there are tax consequences.

[dth656]

houston has infinite land, which is why homes are so cheap there. also, in terms of an economic recovery, it doesn't seem like there is much job growth or reduction in unemployment--i would think improvement in the employment situation would be a necassary precursor to any housing rebound.

[BTM]

Originally Posted by dth656

also, in terms of an economic recovery, it doesn't seem like there is much job growth or reduction in unemployment--i would think improvement in the employment situation would be a necassary precursor to any housing rebound.

"June Unemployment Rates, by State: Most Regions Show Improvement"

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2010/...jobless-rates/

and while housing is down for June, "Permits for new construction, however, rose, signaling a pickup down the road for builders."

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...NewsCollection

[OC Guy]

ppl won't buy homes w/o jobs. It'll be awhile.

[PsychoSlug]

Yes

[ZStig]

its already improving in Philly

[jesm]

Thanks for all your input. Very interesting to read all the different point of views.....hoping this economy continues to get better....

[dth656]

not to threadjack, but those statistics are interesting. typically fed employement statistics don't capture people who have stopped looking for work, or people who are under employed (example: let's say you used to be an investment banker, but now you work at mcdonalds. while technically you are still employed, you are earning far less than you were previously)

to really get the economy to recover, we woudl need another bubble or consumer growth engine. US consumers are not purchasing as much as they used to, so perhaps chinese or indian consumers will pick up the slack? who knows..

Originally Posted by BTM

"June Unemployment Rates, by State: Most Regions Show Improvement"

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2010/...jobless-rates/

and while housing is down for June, "Permits for new construction, however, rose, signaling a pickup down the road for builders."

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...NewsCollection

[BTM]

Originally Posted by dth656

not to threadjack, but those statistics are interesting. typically fed employement statistics don't capture people who have stopped looking for work, or people who are under employed (example: let's say you used to be an investment banker, but now you work at mcdonalds. while technically you are still employed, you are earning far less than you were previously)

to really get the economy to recover, we woudl need another bubble or consumer growth engine. US consumers are not purchasing as much as they used to, so perhaps chinese or indian consumers will pick up the slack? who knows..

100% true, unemployment statistics are not completely accurate when it comes to discouraged workers and the underemployed. However, an improving unemployment rate is not to completely be dismissed. An underemployed person has a lot more purchasing power than an unemployed person.

I think you may also be misunderstanding the term bubble. Bubbles are not desirable (yet are almost unavoidable) - bubbles do not represent actual sustainable growth, which is why bubbles burst. The most stable economic expansion is bubble free, though theoretically possible this is regarded as practically impossible. So bubbles will always burst, often small and manageable. But in the case of the recent housing bubble, it was the great extent to which it burst that led to severely depressed market.

[KingOfJericho]

Originally Posted by jesm

Thank you all for your quick replies and comments, really appreciate them.

The reason why I cannot lease the house, is because by the end of the year I will have to pay taxes and insurance on it. All that will be far more than the money I could lease it for. If I wanted to cover that I would have to lease it for probably 1800 at least monthly to come up even.

I can come up with the payments for the house, but it sucks paying all this mortgage for a house you spend maybe 1 or 2 days every other week.

The big dilemma sell now at crappy price or wait until God knows how much time to see if it will get better....

Thanks again for your input.

Couple of things going on in this post. You don't want to lease it because you will not be completely positive on the deal but right now you're paying 100% of the mortgage. Why not have someone else cover 80-90% of that even if you're paying a few hundred a month? They're still paying down your mortgage and it will lighten your financial burden significantly. At the very least it will buy you time until the market picks up again.

[dth656]

i completely agree w/ you on the undesirability and definition of bubbles. however, i was more thinking of the irrational investment and exponential growth that are typically associated w/ a bubble--it might be the only way to jump start economic growth. specifically, i'm thinking of clean/green tech as the candidate for the next bubble...

Originally Posted by BTM

100% true, unemployment statistics are not completely accurate when it comes to discouraged workers and the underemployed. However, an improving unemployment rate is not to completely be dismissed. An underemployed person has a lot more purchasing power than an unemployed person.

I think you may also be misunderstanding the term bubble. Bubbles are not desirable (yet are almost unavoidable) - bubbles do not represent actual sustainable growth, which is why bubbles burst. The most stable economic expansion is bubble free, though theoretically possible this is regarded as practically impossible. So bubbles will always burst, often small and manageable. But in the case of the recent housing bubble, it was the great extent to which it burst that led to severely depressed market.

[Couch]

Originally Posted by dth656

houston has infinite land, which is why homes are so cheap there. also, in terms of an economic recovery, it doesn't seem like there is much job growth or reduction in unemployment--i would think improvement in the employment situation would be a necassary precursor to any housing rebound.

Houston FC's are up 34% in the first 6 months of '10 compared to this time last year.

Another problem are all the blooming idiots who can afford their mortgage, but are walking away because it's "underwater". Thanks assholes for helping make a bad problem worse.

[Kiemyster]

4-5 years untill the cycle picks up again.

[Kroy]

Originally Posted by Kiemyster

4-5 years untill the cycle picks up again.

+1 it'll be a couple years.

[Multimodal]

Housing will improve in 3 years. "Improve" doesn't mean "2005 boom time".

[klipseracer]

I'm looking to buy a home next year. Hopefully these housing prices will suck a fat dick then too... Sorry guys.

[lauer87]

Will home prices improve??? Of course they will in the long run, but I for one wouldn't expect a home prices to rebound at nearly the rate they shot up from 2001-07. The prices we saw in 2007 should be regarded as the exception, not the rule.

Sorry to say, but if your really underwater in the house, I don't think you will see a meaningful rebound.