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11-16-2007, 02:12 PM | #1 |
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Evidence that Mag Price Estimates are wrong
Picked up the latest issue of Car and Driver with the GTR in it. There estimate for the base price was $85,000...
Evidence not to put too much stock into what Magazines are estimating the M3's price to be. Jason
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11-16-2007, 02:42 PM | #2 |
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Now, with some of the logic tossed around this forum, we should be able to figure out the true price of the M.
Simply take the C&D price of the M and reduce it by the same ratio as they overstated the price on the GTR. There we have it! Ok people, who wants to do the math........ |
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11-16-2007, 03:31 PM | #3 | |
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11-16-2007, 05:04 PM | #5 |
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I have the same mag and they list the est. M3 base at $65,000 with as tested price just over $75,000. Where did you see $85,000?
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11-16-2007, 05:32 PM | #6 |
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He's talking about the estimated base price of the GT-R, which has now been placed in the mid 60's.
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11-16-2007, 05:55 PM | #7 | ||
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Just kidding... yeah I was talking about the est of the GTR which C&D said was 85k. The price was released and is basically 70k.... Jason
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11-16-2007, 07:22 PM | #8 | |
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Hopefully the same will happen with the price of the M#. I couldn't imagine paying the same price for an M3 as an M5.
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11-17-2007, 03:18 PM | #9 |
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Yeah,
We all have our estimates but I honestly believe that BMW is going to shock us with a relatively low MSRP. The M3 was great for many reasons and one of the biggest has always been great performance for bargain. To me 65K is not a bargain especially when the RS4 and C63 AMG can be had for the same price. Not to mention the GTR comes almost loaded at 69K. I believe the M3 will significantly undercut the competition as it has historically. However, only time will tell. Hopefully we find out sooner than later. Jason
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11-17-2007, 03:23 PM | #10 | |
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11-17-2007, 03:38 PM | #11 |
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Estimates based on premiums in other countries have already been posted throughout this forum. Depending on which country you look at the M3 in the US could cost between 55k and 65K.
Also, the talk that BMW is delaying the release of US pricing is ridiculous. BMW priced this thing a long time ago. There release of pricing in the US will follow the same flow it did in Europe. Expect to find out the price here a few months prior to the beginning of production for the US. Jason
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11-17-2007, 06:00 PM | #12 |
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Yep, that's right, with me. I didn't hear from you, so I was beginning to think you back out. Shall we send in the checks to mkoesel then?
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11-17-2007, 08:21 PM | #13 | |
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Agreed, I sense a fellow economist in our midst. IMO, the estimates for the new M3 have become way over inflated some how. I think mostly because MB and Audi are selling there relatively low volume AMG's and R models, respectfully, at a significant premium (65K thereabouts). And, the M3's high sales volume (read supply and demand) in the USA is simply being disregarded by the media and most journalists that did better in English than Economics in school. The bottom line is that we will all just have to wait and see. But ask yourselves this. What would you think if the M3 was 55k MSRP? My opinion, the M3 would be the best bang for the buck luxury sports car in existence. A title the M3 has had for years. Do you think BMW could sell 50,000 of these babies at 55k? Jason
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11-17-2007, 08:43 PM | #14 | |
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11-18-2007, 02:11 AM | #15 |
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No bet
Unless te bet was confirmed by PM there is no bet. I constanly ribbed westwest about not stepping up to the plate and taking the bet both with you and with me as well. Westwest, I say it again, put up or shut up.
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11-18-2007, 03:02 AM | #16 | |
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Yes, but
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IS-F: low $50's k (est) C63 AMG: $63k (est.) RS4: $66k 911: $73.5k Why would BMW come in in the mid to low 50's? As much of a good performer the Lexus has already shown to be, I don't think BMW has to worry about it stealing too much market share. Different demographic, different "league" in most folks minds (yes there are many badge whores out there and those who will buy on reputation alone). Sure they can not discount the IS-F totally and that should indeed be a factor that will push the price lower. By the way anyone have any better estimates than those above? Hmmm looking at that list why not charge high 50's, keep it less expensive by a healthy couple of grand than the two closest competitors, keep it just below the important psychological barrier of $60k and meet both goals of besting most of your competitors on price and besting them as being the best drivers car as well? This sounds like the forumula for success to me. So like I have said over and over I think the real question is can they push the price just above $60k or will they keep it just below $60k? I think discussions far outside of this range are simply personal fantasy and false hope. One last detail. Consider the poll results. I am not saying a poll can predict a price but it should be reasonable. Only 1 in 8 (12.5%) believe the car will come in less than $55k. The mean and median are both in the very high 50's. I suppose you could also argue here that I, the author of that poll, skewed the results by posting the range constructed the way I did. It is a fair/possible criticism but only if there is much of a chance for a low 50's price. |
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11-18-2007, 07:36 AM | #17 |
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If he has indeed backed out, it would be pretty stupid of him to bring it up again on his own. So, I don't understand this guy...
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11-18-2007, 09:36 AM | #18 | |
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Your points are well made but I still stand by my estimate of 57K. Which by the way is more than what Military Sales is expecting by 2-3K grand. I think I have told this before but the estimates Military Sales uses come from BMW. The discount price of 49K through Military Sales is the required price given to the various BMW Military Sales programs in order to establish a contract with a given Military Customer. Thus this explains why both BMW Military Sales programs that I know use the same estimate. Those of us on this program already have signed orders for the car. Granted, the contract stipulates that the price may increase or decrease when official pricing is announced. Also, the Military Sales estimates rarely are off by more than 1-2 grand. For example, the estimated price for the 335i through Mil Sales was right on. Another example, a fellow Marine asked me to find out what the Military Sales price was for the 135i about a month ago. My sales rep told me that they were taking pre-orders at around 31K with the discount. Without the 5-6% discount you get about 33k as the estimated price. So Mil Sales was off by about 2K for the 135i. In my personal opinion BMW is going to have the last laugh on this one. The faults that exist in the new M3 could almost be overlooked at a 55K price tag or even at 57K. Although I also believe the 55-57K MSRP will be with almost no standard options. Not even leather. If leather and 19" were standard like on the RS4 then that alone would push the MSRP to over 60K (with my $56,999 estimate) but we both know that both those options are not standard. That alone makes me think the MSRP is going to be less than 60K. Jason
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11-18-2007, 09:58 AM | #19 | |
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57k is not an unrealistic expectation. I'd say there is good chance it will come in at 57k-59k. My current thinking, after seeing that leather is not standard, is that we are looking at more like 58k. However, it is unrealistic to think it will come in at or under 55k. As Swamp is saying, it makes no sense to price it there given where the competition is. The low volume point has merit for the RS4, but this new MB is a C class; they must be planning to sell thousands. Even if you leave the C class point alone, I see several AMGs every day on my way to work. I rarely see any RS cars. Regardless, it would be interesting to get a hold of some unit projections for the C63 AMG. Last edited by lucid; 11-18-2007 at 10:15 AM.. |
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11-18-2007, 01:30 PM | #20 |
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^ First half of that post should of happened days ago in the thread where all the bets were being put. It's understandable for you to not want to make a bet with 5+ people but if that is your plan then you shouldn't talk such a big game.
As for magazine prices and BMW I think they really have little bearing, anything they come up with so can any one of their devoted readers that are similarly informed. |
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11-18-2007, 01:34 PM | #21 |
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