BMW M3 Forum (E90 E92)

BMW Garage BMW Meets Register Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read


Go Back   M3Post - BMW M3 Forum > BIMMERPOST Universal Forums > Off-Topic Discussions Board
 
ESS Tuning
Post Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
      06-21-2011, 10:35 AM   #1
mact3333
Captain
 
mact3333's Avatar
 
Drives: 11' Audi S4
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: Pacific NW

Posts: 778
iTrader: (1)

Stock market Thread II--Technical Analysis

This thread is meant for stock mkt trading based on technicals and other rational theories....not meant for blindly making recommendations based on air...we will all be right and wrong, but here lets at least have a reason why we think the way we do.

I posted this chart 1-2 wks ago and this was one of the reasons a long position was reasonable at the time.

the % of SPX stocks trading below the 50 day moving avg can sniff out bottoms...every time it goes below 30% usually marks a bottom...also need to watch blow off tops in the VIX(watch if its trading above 2 standard deviations above the mean).

I usually post on trading boards but since I spend alot of time on here, I will start a thread here.

http://screencast.com/t/3kiho4tgNrw

Last edited by mact3333; 06-21-2011 at 10:45 AM.
mact3333 is offline  
0
Reply With Quote
      06-21-2011, 10:42 AM   #2
NYCGP
WTF are you looking at?
 
NYCGP's Avatar
 
Drives: Bandwagon
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: Jungle

Posts: 1,578
iTrader: (0)

__________________
"It is better to be hated for what you are than loved for what you are not."
-André Gide
NYCGP is offline  
0
Reply With Quote
      06-21-2011, 10:42 AM   #3
mact3333
Captain
 
mact3333's Avatar
 
Drives: 11' Audi S4
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: Pacific NW

Posts: 778
iTrader: (1)

watch for VIX blowoffs to form bottom on SPX

http://screencast.com/t/0Mz0wvp6OP
mact3333 is offline  
0
Reply With Quote
      06-21-2011, 02:42 PM   #4
mact3333
Captain
 
mact3333's Avatar
 
Drives: 11' Audi S4
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: Pacific NW

Posts: 778
iTrader: (1)

Charts saying Greek PM will keep his job...Greek bailout will buy time...Bernanke gonna say economy weak tomorrow and open slight window for QE3...mkts ready to bounce...buy indicators coming in...hehe love talking to myself....
mact3333 is offline  
0
Reply With Quote
      06-21-2011, 04:42 PM   #5
wuzupfoo
First Lieutenant
 
wuzupfoo's Avatar
 
Drives: 08 Jet Black MTrizz Cpe
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Mean streets of Irvine

Posts: 304
iTrader: (2)

Im not a super technician though I watch for certain patterns, pivot points and such but either way I'll play!

im watchin for the test of the 1300, since we got a local bottom at 1250. I was fully expecting the bounce off of 1250, now the question is can it reverse the short run trend of making lower highs?

Im pulling back longs in my main portfolio have been since the 1350 high was set and goin cash for now. Too much headline risk though I was very tempted to play the bounce off 1250, now its too late and we're already at resistance. Action over the next couple days will determine if this market can breakout.. at which point I will continue to liquidate main portfolio (ie. for investing) into rallies and look for a put opportunity in my speculative option account.

Obviously my bias short run is for falling prices overall until the market proves otherwise so im looking for a strong rally ultimately to fail at the 1350 high set earlier this year then falling rapidly then leading to QE3. And if Im wrong and it goes beyond 1350 and rally looks like it has legs, well its risk on again

now back to work! haha
__________________
HRE C20/Remus Race/MS Filter/KWV3/Vorsteiner Diffuser/JL Lip/Murdered Grills/Pinnacle F1 Ceramic/ZCP Wing/Alcantara Wheel/Custom Alcantara Boots/Custom ZCP Shifter

Last edited by wuzupfoo; 06-21-2011 at 04:49 PM.
wuzupfoo is offline  
0
Reply With Quote
      06-22-2011, 10:21 AM   #6
mact3333
Captain
 
mact3333's Avatar
 
Drives: 11' Audi S4
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: Pacific NW

Posts: 778
iTrader: (1)

I think we rally for next week or two....looking for ES target of 1320...we either pull back at at this level but if mkts accept prices above this level we will rally for rest of yr and make new all time highs in the mkts.


http://screencast.com/t/XZn5GHfM1nse






Quote:
Originally Posted by wuzupfoo View Post
Im not a super technician though I watch for certain patterns, pivot points and such but either way I'll play!

im watchin for the test of the 1300, since we got a local bottom at 1250. I was fully expecting the bounce off of 1250, now the question is can it reverse the short run trend of making lower highs?

Im pulling back longs in my main portfolio have been since the 1350 high was set and goin cash for now. Too much headline risk though I was very tempted to play the bounce off 1250, now its too late and we're already at resistance. Action over the next couple days will determine if this market can breakout.. at which point I will continue to liquidate main portfolio (ie. for investing) into rallies and look for a put opportunity in my speculative option account.

Obviously my bias short run is for falling prices overall until the market proves otherwise so im looking for a strong rally ultimately to fail at the 1350 high set earlier this year then falling rapidly then leading to QE3. And if Im wrong and it goes beyond 1350 and rally looks like it has legs, well its risk on again

now back to work! haha
mact3333 is offline  
0
Reply With Quote
      06-22-2011, 01:06 PM   #7
wuzupfoo
First Lieutenant
 
wuzupfoo's Avatar
 
Drives: 08 Jet Black MTrizz Cpe
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Mean streets of Irvine

Posts: 304
iTrader: (2)

Quote:
Originally Posted by mact3333 View Post
I think we rally for next week or two....looking for ES target of 1320...we either pull back at at this level but if mkts accept prices above this level we will rally for rest of yr and make new all time highs in the mkts.


http://screencast.com/t/XZn5GHfM1nse
agreed.. sorry was not looking at my charts at work so I was quoting roundabout numbers from memory of my charts.. I think we are pretty much in agreement. It can be a good thing to get verification from someone else but I would love to see someone disagree... you only learn when someone questions your thought process... but I dont think we are gonna get that here..
__________________
HRE C20/Remus Race/MS Filter/KWV3/Vorsteiner Diffuser/JL Lip/Murdered Grills/Pinnacle F1 Ceramic/ZCP Wing/Alcantara Wheel/Custom Alcantara Boots/Custom ZCP Shifter
wuzupfoo is offline  
0
Reply With Quote
      06-22-2011, 04:00 PM   #8
mact3333
Captain
 
mact3333's Avatar
 
Drives: 11' Audi S4
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: Pacific NW

Posts: 778
iTrader: (1)

Quote:
Originally Posted by wuzupfoo View Post
agreed.. sorry was not looking at my charts at work so I was quoting roundabout numbers from memory of my charts.. I think we are pretty much in agreement. It can be a good thing to get verification from someone else but I would love to see someone disagree... you only learn when someone questions your thought process... but I dont think we are gonna get that here..
Bernanke disappointed so all bets off...mkts can go either way now...we needed a sniff of QE3 and didnt get it...
mact3333 is offline  
0
Reply With Quote
      06-22-2011, 04:20 PM   #9
AngelinIsRich08
Banned
 
Drives: '11 X5M, '09 CTS
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: St. Louis, MO

Posts: 709
iTrader: (0)

No QE3 and SLV has not budged. WTF????? I thought owning SLV ETF's would offset my other losses. Guess not.
AngelinIsRich08 is offline   United_States
0
Reply With Quote
      06-23-2011, 12:38 PM   #10
wuzupfoo
First Lieutenant
 
wuzupfoo's Avatar
 
Drives: 08 Jet Black MTrizz Cpe
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Mean streets of Irvine

Posts: 304
iTrader: (2)

No QE3 hint is precisely why its going nowhere. Commodities are a poor hedge when overall economy is about to tank.. slv is better for when things are heating up, inflation wise, with deflationary head winds coming precious metals are not the ideal hedge.. but wait till QE3 ... it will take off!
__________________
HRE C20/Remus Race/MS Filter/KWV3/Vorsteiner Diffuser/JL Lip/Murdered Grills/Pinnacle F1 Ceramic/ZCP Wing/Alcantara Wheel/Custom Alcantara Boots/Custom ZCP Shifter
wuzupfoo is offline  
0
Reply With Quote
      06-23-2011, 12:47 PM   #11
mact3333
Captain
 
mact3333's Avatar
 
Drives: 11' Audi S4
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: Pacific NW

Posts: 778
iTrader: (1)

Quote:
Originally Posted by AngelinIsRich08 View Post
No QE3 and SLV has not budged. WTF????? I thought owning SLV ETF's would offset my other losses. Guess not.
Metals and the general mkts move the same way...QE means weak dollar...weak dollar means hidden inflation , which ultimately means asset prices must go up, including metals....so no QE3 means strong dollar(look at the USD today up big) which means the metals will get crushed along with the general mkts.

If you want to hedge long positions, either buy deep in the money SPY puts or ZSL, which is a double inverse short silver etf.
mact3333 is offline  
0
Reply With Quote
      06-23-2011, 01:02 PM   #12
ghosthi32
Banned
 
Drives: Water camel
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: strait of hormuz

Posts: 2,516
iTrader: (0)

not you again
ghosthi32 is offline  
0
Reply With Quote
      06-23-2011, 01:36 PM   #13
mact3333
Captain
 
mact3333's Avatar
 
Drives: 11' Audi S4
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: Pacific NW

Posts: 778
iTrader: (1)

Quote:
Originally Posted by ghosthi32 View Post
not you again
Chickar Meekhani my friend....

This board for actual traders so GTFO!...just kiddin ya....

Stay but if you do, please try to contribute something other than sracasm...
mact3333 is offline  
0
Reply With Quote
      06-23-2011, 02:46 PM   #14
ghosthi32
Banned
 
Drives: Water camel
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: strait of hormuz

Posts: 2,516
iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by mact3333 View Post
Chickar Meekhani my friend....
divooneh
ghosthi32 is offline  
0
Reply With Quote
      06-24-2011, 09:47 AM   #15
ES_TRADER
Colonel
 
Drives: 328i, 335i, M3, 535i, X5, 36M
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: OC

Posts: 2,464
iTrader: (3)

Garage List
2014 Ford Raptor (o ...  [0.00]
2012 328i E92  [5.00]
2013 X5  [0.00]
2013 335i F30  [4.00]
1990 Toyota Previa  [0.00]
1997 E36 M3  [5.00]
2011 E92 M3  [0.00]
2011 535i  [0.00]
there's a gap above @ 1313 ES_F....target fill and reverse to short
ES_TRADER is offline  
0
Reply With Quote
      06-24-2011, 10:12 AM   #16
AngelinIsRich08
Banned
 
Drives: '11 X5M, '09 CTS
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: St. Louis, MO

Posts: 709
iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by ghosthi32 View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by mact3333 View Post
Chickar Meekhani my friend....
divooneh
Does divooneh mean bastard or something or is that his name? Lol.
AngelinIsRich08 is offline   United_States
0
Reply With Quote
      06-24-2011, 10:34 AM   #17
mact3333
Captain
 
mact3333's Avatar
 
Drives: 11' Audi S4
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: Pacific NW

Posts: 778
iTrader: (1)

Quote:
Originally Posted by richpuer View Post
there's a gap above @ 1313 ES_F....target fill and reverse to short
If we could just take out 1290 to complete the mini cup handle pattern we should head towards your 1313 target...buying pressure is coming in though...you can see the money flow coming into the metals including miners(although SLV down today).

http://screencast.com/t/OCJI4xu7lHK
mact3333 is offline  
0
Reply With Quote
      06-24-2011, 01:41 PM   #18
ghosthi32
Banned
 
Drives: Water camel
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: strait of hormuz

Posts: 2,516
iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by AngelinIsRich08 View Post
Does divooneh mean bastard or something or is that his name? Lol.
means crazy lol
ghosthi32 is offline  
0
Reply With Quote
      06-28-2011, 08:12 PM   #19
mact3333
Captain
 
mact3333's Avatar
 
Drives: 11' Audi S4
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: Pacific NW

Posts: 778
iTrader: (1)

we are 1 gap up from completing cup/handle pattern...LT and ST trend up now...if ES clears 1295-7 and mkt accepts prices above this area then IT trend flips upward also and the 2 month bear we witnessed prob over...sentiment readings say we rally for awhile now...we were too oversold and bear sentiment too high.

Despite silver price going down for past 2 wks, the effective volume(money flow ) has been positive, that tells me something.
mact3333 is offline  
0
Reply With Quote
      06-28-2011, 08:37 PM   #20
AngelinIsRich08
Banned
 
Drives: '11 X5M, '09 CTS
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: St. Louis, MO

Posts: 709
iTrader: (0)

What I'm expecting is the Dow to fall below 12k after the jobs reports come out this Friday, July 1.
AngelinIsRich08 is offline   United_States
0
Reply With Quote
      06-29-2011, 11:29 AM   #21
mact3333
Captain
 
mact3333's Avatar
 
Drives: 11' Audi S4
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: Pacific NW

Posts: 778
iTrader: (1)

Trend is up in all 3 time frames now....IT flipped up above 1295-7....hope you took bullish bias, as this thread did, 1-2 wks ago.

The actual stock isnt important...the overall mkt is.

I have been long AGQ for past week and will accumulate more.
mact3333 is offline  
0
Reply With Quote
      06-30-2011, 10:29 AM   #22
mact3333
Captain
 
mact3333's Avatar
 
Drives: 11' Audi S4
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: Pacific NW

Posts: 778
iTrader: (1)

anybody remember this chart posted awhile back...TA doesnt lie, only humans...not sure what that means but it sounds cool.......this is why charts are so important, its cuts through the BS...I want targets people and why!.......this chart was posted 8 days ago.

http://screencast.com/t/XZn5GHfM1nse

ES/SPX should hit resistance just about now at 1318 level...what we do here will be key for rest of the year.

If mkts accept above this level we will hit new all time highs in the mkts in approx 6 months...if mkts reject this level, the bear mkt will cont and make new intra-year lows.
mact3333 is offline  
0
Reply With Quote
Post Reply

Bookmarks

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 11:02 PM.




m3post
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.7.0
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
1Addicts.com, BIMMERPOST.com, E90Post.com, F30Post.com, M3Post.com, ZPost.com, 5Post.com, 6Post.com, 7Post.com, XBimmers.com logo and trademark are properties of BIMMERPOST