Unconventional View of China

[ganeil]

This is an interesting article with an unconventional take on China.

The Empire of Lies
Guy Sorman

The twenty-first century will not belong to China.

The Western press is full of stories these days on China’s arrival as a superpower, some even heralding, or warning, that the future may belong to her. Western political and business delegations stream into Beijing, confident of China’s economy, which continues to grow rapidly. Investment pours in. Crowning China’s new status, Beijing will host the 2008 Summer Olympics.

But China’s success is, at least in part, a mirage. True, 200 million of her subjects, fortunate to be working for an expanding global market, increasingly enjoy a middle-class standard of living. The remaining 1 billion, however, remain among the poorest and most exploited people in the world, lacking even minimal rights and public services. Popular discontent simmers, especially in the countryside, where it often flares into violent confrontation with Communist Party authorities. China’s economic “miracle” is rotting from within...
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[742]

Originally Posted by ganeil

This is an interesting article with an unconventional take on China.

Nothing unconventional. This is fully in line with the understanding of those who actually have been to China and those who seriously watch it. That this should be a surprise to anyone is yet another example of the shallow, simplistic and manipulated crap that passes for “news” in the United States.

Fact is that the economic growth is limited to the Eastern coast. Fact is that the Communist Party control of the country is weak in many locations. Fact is that the PLA is a big player often independent of the central government.

Another hidden fact is that American military technology passes to China through Israel. Witness the J-10 fighter and the air to air missiles under the wings of the fighters that intercepted the EP-3.

I aggravate my financial advisory by refusing to put any money into mutual funds that have anything to do with China.

Bit of a spleen vent, I hope it does not come off as critial of the OP.

[dr335is]

Originally Posted by 742

Fact is that the economic growth is limited to the Eastern coast. Fact is that the Communist Party control of the country is weak in many locations. Fact is that the PLA is a big player often independent of the central government.

.

I disagree!
The economic growth is anything BUT limited to the east coast. Obviously the words coming from someone just reading about China or someone that has only visited Beijing and Shanghai.
I spent about 16 weeks of last 12 months in China. China Government has heavily invested into certain cities/areas (about 10-12 of them) in last 10-12 years. Shanghai was the first one to see it, and is the most obvious one. However, besides Shanghai -- Beijing, Xi'an, Chengdu, Shenzhen, Guangzhou are a few other to mention that have nothing to do with the "East Coast". Those are the ones I frequently visit and that look equally impressive as Shanghai itself.

As for the Government -- I would not really call it a typical Communist regime that still exists for example in NK, and used to exist in China, USSR, and so on. Some liberties are still limited in China, but far, far from the Communism. We, claiming to be to most Capitalist and Democratic society have limitions too. It is natural to have the government control over almost 2 billion people, otherwise it could be dangerous. So, I would not call it a typical Gov't "control" but the presence.

Now, my take on China as the future super-power would be that it may happen, but it may not. Many indicators point that it may be on the right direction -- devleopment, size, debt (zero), savings (enough to drown us), world support (I believe the world appreciates China far more than the US for obvious reasons).

The negative side is -- the mentality of Chinese people itself. That is something hard to change and "invest in". The disciplline is bad and obvious as soon as you clear the customs at the major airport -- from no formal lines, to fake taxis, to no traffic rules... We are "programmed" here, and that may be a good thing sometimes, that is what Chinese need...

Also, my opinion is that China has passed its peak, and is leveling off at this point. A lot of things are centeresd around the 2008 Olympics and to show off in front of the World. All the building, infrastructure improvement, cleaning, taxi updates, etc., is just for the event. Beijing for example has taken out all the old taxis and the Gov't has given the taxi drivers all the new cars (Elantras and VWs), and that is the city with the most taxis in the World. WHat happens after that is to be seen.

China will certainly remain a strong market for some time -- it is big, rich, smart, and over-invested from the outside. However, I'd keep and eye on possible other players like India, Russia...

[ganeil]

Originally Posted by 742

Nothing unconventional. This is fully in line with the understanding of those who actually have been to China and those who seriously watch it. That this should be a surprise to anyone is yet another example of the shallow, simplistic and manipulated crap that passes for “news” in the United States.

Fact is that the economic growth is limited to the Eastern coast. Fact is that the Communist Party control of the country is weak in many locations. Fact is that the PLA is a big player often independent of the central government.

Another hidden fact is that American military technology passes to China through Israel. Witness the J-10 fighter and the air to air missiles under the wings of the fighters that intercepted the EP-3.

I aggravate my financial advisory by refusing to put any money into mutual funds that have anything to do with China.

Bit of a spleen vent, I hope it does not come off as critial of the OP.

I did not take it as criticism but I think you misinterpreted my description of it as unconventional. As you point out, it is not what is normally heard in the US or western media.

[MrFrizzle]

I had just come back from a two week trip to China over Spring Break. China is interesting, in how westernized and successful it has become.

But what a lot of people do not realize, is that the goverment is trying as hard as it can to make China "look" better from the outside. It is putting up a facade, and trying to increase its prestige. Right now as we speak, they are madly renovating every single historical building in Beijing, to make it look nice for the 2008 Olympics. The Forbidden Palace is covered in scaffolding and covers right now.

Even literally, China is covering itself up. The post huge billboards over slum neighborhoods to hide them from view. The government sponsered tour guides (meaning all tour guides) have specific places they must go, to show the glamourous and famous side of China, and thats it.

[dr335is]

Originally Posted by MrFrizzle

I had just come back from a two week trip to China over Spring Break. China is interesting, in how westernized and successful it has become.

But what a lot of people do not realize, is that the goverment is trying as hard as it can to make China "look" better from the outside. It is putting up a facade, and trying to increase its prestige. Right now as we speak, they are madly renovating every single historical building in Beijing, to make it look nice for the 2008 Olympics. The Forbidden Palace is covered in scaffolding and covers right now.

Even literally, China is covering itself up. The post huge billboards over slum neighborhoods to hide them from view. The government sponsered tour guides (meaning all tour guides) have specific places they must go, to show the glamourous and famous side of China, and thats it.

you need to go back for another 2-week tour to understand it better...

[DustinDallas]

Originally Posted by dr325i

you need to go back for another 2-week tour to understand it better...

you may be right..but what he says is still true. they are, without question, putting up a facade.

[dr335is]

Originally Posted by DustinDallas

you may be right..but what he says is still true. they are, without question, putting up a facade.

yes and no...
Beijing -- yes.

Other cities not that much -- Shenzhen is something this part of the world will never see (21 year old city with 15+ M people), Guangzhou, Nanjin, Hangzhou... Even Shanghai is more than a facade. Beijing is pretty much as described, but for a good reason. Chinese are going to blow everyone away with the Olympics stuff, what will happen after that, we'll see.

Again, 2-week vacation trip to China will leave some (right or wrong impression). I go there every month and see both the "facade" things and real development and improvement...

[ehhhwik]

I disagree with that jounalist, all of these expansion and growth in China's economy was already been forseen by Deng Xiao Ping (Chinese leader after Mao Zhi Dong) and he basically said that a small group of people in China must get rich in order to drive the country onto a middle class, modern society and to remain a communist state with economical reforms

Don't forget, China is still a country that is majority peasants, but the urban population is also growing very very fast, so it will take sometime in order for China's major population to be considered to the western world "middle class"

[dr335is]

Originally Posted by ehhhwik

I disagree with that jounalist, all of these expansion and growth in China's economy was already been forseen by Deng Xiao Ping (Chinese leader after Mao Zhi Dong) and he basically said that a small group of people in China must get rich in order to drive the country onto a middle class, modern society and to remain a communist state with economical reforms

Don't forget, China is still a country that is majority peasants, but the urban population is also growing very very fast, so it will take sometime in order for China's major population to be considered to the western world "middle class"

Exactly.
I am in Beijing right now, and it is still changing rapidly (I was here about 40 days ago and noticed difference), but yes, it will take some time for the whole country to catch up...

[Zephyr15]

I thought I'd resuscitate this thread with a very interesting and thorough BuisnessWeek article about China's economy that was posted on MSN.

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com...on.aspx?page=1