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      10-06-2010, 09:01 PM   #67
Rawhide
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Haha how did I miss this before? You know what - he's totally right. Wait, I didn't even watch. Know why? Because I don't consult youtube videos nor "off the beaten path" radio shows to provide "credible" support for my doomsday cat food retirement theories.
I suggested him because he's easily accessible. Go ahead, give him a call and let us all know when you're calling his show. I'm sure you'll make quick work of such a lightweight.
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      10-06-2010, 09:18 PM   #68
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The fact that you cite the NY and Seattle times is not ad hominem at all. Again, if you were AT ALL open to basic economic principles, the inherently misaligned incentives in such organizations are enough to make anyone reasonably skeptic.

But herein lies the problem. You have your opinion, I'm not going to change it. At this point I no longer care. I attempted to point out some reasons as to why this scenario your convinced of is far from an inevitability. You present some admissible evidence of your claims, and I completely cease to take you seriously (which I had all but done upon your initial post). That's fine man, have a great retirement. I've gone too far into it with you already. I'm not going to continue a discussion of economic forecasting with someone who cannot draw supply and demand curves without looking them up on wikipedia yet who has read a bunch of articles and has therefore gleaned the economic background and understanding to make such adamant predictions. I'm not claiming I have it all figured out, but that I have it a helluva lot more figured out than you.
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      10-06-2010, 09:42 PM   #69
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The fact that you cite the NY and Seattle times is not ad hominem at all. Again, if you were AT ALL open to basic economic principles, the inherently misaligned incentives in such organizations are enough to make anyone reasonably skeptic.
Wow, there's an ironic statement.

First off, I really don't read/trust any of those a whole lot. But the facts presented in those links can be found in a variety of sources - take your pick. I actually went out of my way to find mainstream sources for those links to avoid the "wacko blogger" internet argument defense tactic (which you basically employed on the radio show host anyway).

So, the Seattle Times article for example was based on data from the Census Bureau. Would you consider that a reasonable source? Simply slamming the source as unreliable out of hand and not addressing the content of the article proves nothing.

But I do agree with you that we have our separate opinions. Honestly, I bet if we sat down for a beer we'd probably have a hell of a conversation. I really doubt you're the type to call someone an idiot to their face over a simple disagreement on economics. Otherwise you would have had a very short career. But the internet provides us all a chance to put on the Rambo suit, and you have lots of posts and friends here so I get that.

In the end, time will prove one of us right. Personally I think we're looking at the fall of Rome part 2 in some form or fashion (beyond just economics) within our lifetimes. The shit is coming from way too many angles for something to not eventually give.

And I honestly feel sorry for those that don't see it coming.

Peace.
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      10-06-2010, 10:01 PM   #70
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Ok, fine. A few comments:

1) Where data comes from and how it is interpreted are two entirely different things. There is a reason there are entire courses dedicated to analyzing and critiquing "econ" articles by popular news sources. I read the news, but am careful what to take from it. Clean, simple, undiluted facts. It is very easy to misinterpret or draw inaccurate conclusions from statistics, intentionally or unintentionally. The fact is, in these stories or editorials, the evidence/analysis is presented at such a rudimentary level it is very naive, right or wrong, to base opinions on such.

2) I've called plenty of people ignorant and idiots. It's not in the sense that overall, in everything they do, they're idiotic, but more that in this particular instance, their hardheadedness is making them out to be as such. I hope in your experience with a few MBAs, it was in the same sense. This is not to say that a few letters automatically makes someone an expert, but in the sense that you clearly aren't either, I'm not sure your assessment of them was entirely level headed.

3) I actually got curious and watched the radio host. No different from any other political radio host, just more anti-establishment and conspiracy theorist than most. Frankly, I won't call him, because there is no point to. I can just as summarily prove him wrong to myself as he can prove me wrong to himself. At the end of the day, I'll be on the "winning" side of things (his words), while he'll still be hosting a 2 bit radio program complaining about "the system" is holding you back.
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      10-06-2010, 10:02 PM   #71
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      10-06-2010, 11:19 PM   #72
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fear mongering media wooooo
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      10-07-2010, 12:18 AM   #73
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OK, that's impressive
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      10-07-2010, 12:39 AM   #74
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OK, that's impressive
That cat is smarter than some people I know.
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      10-07-2010, 01:24 AM   #75
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Aren't we more worried about deflation right now than hyperinflation?

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...googlenews_wsj


also

http://www.inflationdata.com/inflati...inflation.aspx


Unless I'm reading the wrong sources, it doesn't seem hyperinflation is our issue right now.
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      10-07-2010, 01:40 AM   #76
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I see people 45, 50, even older that still "save up" to go on a trip or "can't afford" to buy tires for their cars. WTF? Are people this bad at managing their money? If you're a kid, in college, or have extenuating circumstances, I can see it. If you're in an established job and can't manage to save anything, I wonder where it all goes.

My co-worker retired at 67 and flat out said he had $80,000 in 401k/cash and his land/house was worth about $350,000. That's it! How can you retire with that?
I really don't get how those people get through life. I'm assuming those people that have to save up to go somewhere live well beyond their means and live paycheck to paycheck.

I also don't get how someone is retiring at 67 with only $430k to his name. What the hell did he do with all his money? Assuming he started working @ 22 he had 45 years to save up money. That means he saved up $9,555 PER year if you include the mortgage payments as "money saved." I just don't get it.

I'm a 20 year old with a net worth of ~$40k. I don't think I'm doing too bad .
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      10-07-2010, 08:30 AM   #77
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Quote:
Originally Posted by radix View Post
Aren't we more worried about deflation right now than hyperinflation?

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...googlenews_wsj


also

http://www.inflationdata.com/inflati...inflation.aspx


Unless I'm reading the wrong sources, it doesn't seem hyperinflation is our issue right now.
Which brings me back to my original statement that:


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There is just as much speculation as to deflation as there is to hyperinflation.
It is true that in the US we experienced an annum of slightly negative inflation (-0.34). The figure, which from "our" perspective, is a little more transparent in showing how we are really doing and accounting for inflation and price changes is CPI, which at -0.4% indicates that in 2009 we were 0.4% less able to afford things. Perusing the chart I have linked, there are sporadic instances of decreased consumer well being, the most extended of which predictably happened in the GD. Whether or not the negative trend continues is currently being debated, with outlook looking somewhat positive in the last few months for CPI-U (urban consumers, which are a majority population within the US)

http://www.usinflationcalculator.com...-1913-to-2008/

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf
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      10-07-2010, 09:37 AM   #78
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I really don't get how those people get through life. I'm assuming those people that have to save up to go somewhere live well beyond their means and live paycheck to paycheck.

I also don't get how someone is retiring at 67 with only $430k to his name. What the hell did he do with all his money? Assuming he started working @ 22 he had 45 years to save up money. That means he saved up $9,555 PER year if you include the mortgage payments as "money saved." I just don't get it.

I'm a 20 year old with a net worth of ~$40k. I don't think I'm doing too bad .
Not to say you don't understand but you'll understand where money goes very quickly as you gain more and more responsibilities.

Do you have a house. Mortgage's are not cheap especially if you are living beyond your means. Then the upkeep costs and other items to go along with the house. Let alone kids when you have them(I don't either and I don't exactly look forward to the financial aspects of a child).

I mean break it down, 2k mortgage, 1k bills(not adding in groceries etc.) another 1k in living expenses. That's 4k a month to live, this is also not factoring in children and this is living modestly. Then add in occasionaly buying furniture, tv's, appliances, landscaping, etc etc. Say you were taking home 6k a month after taxes you honestly don't think all of the 2k left over will actually make it into a saving account?

I always laugh at my wife since she doens't understand how much things actually cost. Like when we went to look at cars. She was adament that our payment would not exceed 300/mo with minimal down. Once she realized that would hardly get us a civic she woke up and got it. Now we're looking to get a couch. She was thinking 2k for a nice sectional, yeah if you want garbage. Try 3k at a min and if you want leather up that to around 6k+.

Shit is expensive. And when you add in living excessivly it's even more expensive. Which is why saving gets pushed to the back of the bus for people.
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      10-07-2010, 12:07 PM   #79
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I think it's an extremely difficult assessment to make. I’m 29 and have zero debt outside of my car payments. I have an MBA and no student loans (thanks to inherited money that could only be spent on education. Yes I realize how fortunate I am every day.)

I live my life as close to a 100% cash-only basis as possible and my credit score is excellent.

I bought my car pre-owned and got a pretty nice deal because it was a manual.

I save 15% of my take-home each month and put another 7% away to my 401(k) with matching of my first 5%.

Due to the economy being shaky, we haven’t gotten our usual merit increases at work in a while, so that makes things a little harder. I also live in a pretty expensive city (Miami). Aside from having my education paid for (which is WONDERFUL), I was never given any money from my parents, so I basically just started out from scratch upon graduation. A lot of the kids I went to school with got a nice check for getting through grad school, so they’re probably a little bit ahead of me in the savings department if they’re smart.

I still wish I had more cash on hand, but who doesn’t. I don’t necessarily become fixated on the big number all the way down the line, I just try to live responsibly and reasonably each day and make sure my savings goes up every two weeks, even if it’s only by a little bit.
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      10-07-2010, 07:48 PM   #80
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Assuming no student loans, minimal expenses, very good paying job, perhaps. Statistically no. I believe the average net worth of americans between 34-45 is ~50k.
Do you have a source on that? MY GOD, that is awful and depressing.

No wonder people act like morons at work...
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      10-07-2010, 09:13 PM   #81
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^ those numbers wouldn't be surprising. Only a small portion of society comes out of school with a decent starting salary (if they go to school at all). The rest scrape by in their 20's and many over extend themselves.

Those of us lucky enough to land high paying careers within the first few years of our careers often loose perspective. When you hang out with people of similar means you can easily forget how little the average person makes.
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      10-07-2010, 10:16 PM   #82
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^ those numbers wouldn't be surprising. Only a small portion of society comes out of school with a decent starting salary (if they go to school at all). The rest scrape by in their 20's and many over extend themselves.

Those of us lucky enough to land high paying careers within the first few years of our careers often loose perspective. When you hang out with people of similar means you can easily forget how little the average person makes.
I look at older people (50+) at my corporate job and they seem to struggle with money. They got married young, had kids, and overspent. They might make OK money, but it is spent every month plus more. At that age, I wouldn't have want to deal with young college grads, stupid management, and just overall corporate BS. I hear them talk and it's like they have no money and their lives would be over if they lost their job.

So depressing.
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      10-07-2010, 10:18 PM   #83
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