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      09-29-2008, 11:00 AM   #1
ideliver
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Why Sen Obama is in trouble in OH/PA/MI

This brings together many of the reasons why Sen. Obama is in trouble in these important states...

Lifelong Dems (who have never voted for ANY republican) can't pull the lever...it is not because he is father in Kenyan...it's because of everthing else...

http://blogs.wsj.com/undecided/
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      09-29-2008, 12:14 PM   #2
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I dont think he's gonna have problems in Penn or Mich, but possibly in Ohio. But Ohio is not as important this year for the Dems as they have their site on Colorado and even Virginia.

Penn
RCP Average 09/18 - 09/28 -- 48.5 43.7 Obama +4.8
Morning Call 09/24 - 09/28 581 LV 49 42 Obama +7
Rasmussen 09/24 - 09/24 500 LV 49 45 Obama +4
SurveyUSA 09/23 - 09/24 1094 LV 50 44 Obama +6

Mich
Detroit Free Press 09/22 - 09/24 602 LV 51 38 Obama +13
Strategic Vision (R) 09/22 - 09/24 1200 LV 48 45 Obama +3
NBC/Mason-Dixon 09/18 - 09/23 625 LV 46 46 Tie
CNN/Time 09/21 - 09/23 755 LV 51 46 Obama +5

Ohio
Rasmussen 09/24 - 09/24 700 LV 47 46 McCain +1
InAdv/PollPosition 09/22 - 09/22 545 LV 46 46 Tie
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      09-29-2008, 01:15 PM   #3
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I see these numbers....but I live in Youngstown...there is hardly any love for Obama........many signs that read "Democrats for McCain"....understand that James Trafficant could win the 17th Congressional District from prison...we have a one party system here...democrat...Kerry carried this area easily (67%) and lost the state...Obama got CRUSHED by Hillary in the primary

I don't think that any of the polling numbers for Obama are accurate....kinda of like what happened in the Cali exit polls...where they were anticipating a close vote....and Hillary won easily...people are lying to the polsters to not appear racist...when in truth...they don't like his policies
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      09-29-2008, 02:13 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ideliver View Post
I see these numbers....but I live in Youngstown...there is hardly any love for Obama........many signs that read "Democrats for McCain"....understand that James Trafficant could win the 17th Congressional District from prison...we have a one party system here...democrat...Kerry carried this area easily (67%) and lost the state...Obama got CRUSHED by Hillary in the primary

I don't think that any of the polling numbers for Obama are accurate....kinda of like what happened in the Cali exit polls...where they were anticipating a close vote....and Hillary won easily...people are lying to the polsters to not appear racist...when in truth...they don't like his policies
I'm not sure how you can claim that they liked HRC's policies, but not Obama's policies. They are the same!
Not being funny, but isn't Youngstown close to West Virginia? And isn't W.V the state that where about 25% of people openly admitted that they didn't like Obama because of his race (which really means 35% of people thought that way, just 10% didn't have the balls to openly admit it)? If both of those assertions are true, could you also deduce that some of the people in Youngstown dont like Obama because of his race? I don't believe that peoples beliefs stop at the state lines.
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      09-29-2008, 02:15 PM   #5
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Also, the Clinton campaign learned that they could get some undecideds to vote for them in the last couple of days before the election by turning negative. If you looked at the polls, this was the case every time. The Obama campaign made it a point not to be too harsh to Clinton because she was a Democrat and because she was a woman. Neither of those reasons are relevant for McCain though. I expect craziness a couple of days before the election.
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      09-29-2008, 02:37 PM   #6
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I don't know about that article. One woman doesn't like Obama because he wants to cap execs pay in this bailout and he speaks TOO well. Seems like she's lost her 70 yr old mind. Also a few of them are still upset about Hillary.

I don't find any of this putting him "in trouble" in those states. Plus I won't even start as to my view on the intellectual accumulative of Ohio.
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      09-29-2008, 02:41 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lyndon_h View Post
I'm not sure how you can claim that they liked HRC's policies, but not Obama's policies. They are the same!
Not being funny, but isn't Youngstown close to West Virginia? And isn't W.V the state that where about 25% of people openly admitted that they didn't like Obama because of his race (which really means 35% of people thought that way, just 10% didn't have the balls to openly admit it)? If both of those assertions are true, could you also deduce that some of the people in Youngstown dont like Obama because of his race? I don't believe that peoples beliefs stop at the state lines.
I get what you are saying...but the same applies to all of PA that isn't Philly/Pitt...I have a hunting cabin in the central PA mountains...very conservative democrats...Obama won't do well here

As far as Y-towns geography....we are on the edge of Appalachia...really aren't part of it...but for $$$$ reasons, try to be (to get federal earmarks)...we are more similar to any major post-industrial city that never recovered...(Detroit, Cleveland come to mind)

My point about the blog....is that many people who are lifelong dems have found many reasons not to vote for him...he is seen as too liberal and not as moderate as HRC...
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      09-29-2008, 03:50 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lyndon_h View Post
I'm not sure how you can claim that they liked HRC's policies, but not Obama's policies. They are the same!
Not being funny, but isn't Youngstown close to West Virginia? And isn't W.V the state that where about 25% of people openly admitted that they didn't like Obama because of his race (which really means 35% of people thought that way, just 10% didn't have the balls to openly admit it)? If both of those assertions are true, could you also deduce that some of the people in Youngstown dont like Obama because of his race? I don't believe that peoples beliefs stop at the state lines.
Have you ever stopped to ask yourself this question:

96% of blacks will vote for Obama --- I wonder how many of them are voting for him SOLELY because he's black?

Is that not racism?

I'm so sick and tired of this racism crap that Obama and his ilk are spewing knowing damn well that they are the ones with the racist voters.

I'm white and I'm NOT voting for Obama. Not because he's black (he's more Middle Eastern than he is Black btw) but because he's a SOCIALIST.
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      09-29-2008, 03:55 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alms21 View Post
96% of blacks will vote for Obama --- I wonder how many of them are voting for him SOLELY because he's black?

Is that not racism?
Just as many as whites who will vote for McCain because he is NOT black.

Or you are implying that many of African-Americans who will vote for Obama are too dumb to evaluate both candidates and come to their own conclusions regardless of a color of candidates skin?

And you want racism? Just look at the predominantly white Republican party.
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      09-29-2008, 04:00 PM   #10
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here are some poll results for you:



As you can see White Republicans view of Blacks is CONSISTENTLY lower than that of White Democrats AND Independents. So who is racist over here?
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      09-29-2008, 04:03 PM   #11
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It's true Obama so far is not connecting with some blue collar Dems, many of whom were Hillary supporters. There is much talk about the "Bradley effect" where white voters publicly claim to support a black candidate but privately dont.

I say two things to that. 1. That was more than twenty years ago. A lot has changed. 2. The Obama campaign has attracted supporters who already show their loyalty over and over by contributing to the campaign financially. He's raised more money in a grass roots fashion than any other presidential candidate in history. You don't give money to a candidate you aren't planning to vote for.

One more point is that a large number of those supporters are young people who don't view race quite the same way older voters do. It's less relavent for them. Those same young voters often don't get reflected in the polls because they are not reachable by traditional means of communication. The Obama campaign commuicates with them through the internet and text messaging only.

We all knew from the start there will be a certain percentage of people who simply will not vote for a black candidate no matter who he/she is. I believe those people are already factored in to the polling for the reasons above.
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      09-29-2008, 04:05 PM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by solefald View Post
Just as many as whites who will vote for McCain because he is NOT black.

Or you are implying that many of African-Americans who will vote for Obama are too dumb to evaluate both candidates and come to their own conclusions regardless of a color of candidates skin?

And you want racism? Just look at the predominantly white Republican party.
No, I'm saying they see black and they don't look any further to see who is running. Just look at voter turnout among blacks when a black candidate is running vs when NO black is on the ticket. Its that obvious.

How many blacks were in Executive level positions in the Clinton Administration or the Carter Administration?

How many has Bush put in Executive Level Positions?

Who is the only KKK member in Congress? Byrd (D-WV)

Has any Dem Pres put a black person on the Supreme Court? Nope

.........and for the record, I volunteered for Michael Steele's campaign when he ran agasint Ben Cardin in the 2006 Maryland Senate race. Last I checked he was black.
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      09-29-2008, 04:46 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alms21 View Post
No, I'm saying they see black and they don't look any further to see who is running. Just look at voter turnout among blacks when a black candidate is running vs when NO black is on the ticket. Its that obvious.

How many blacks were in Executive level positions in the Clinton Administration or the Carter Administration?

How many has Bush put in Executive Level Positions?

Who is the only KKK member in Congress? Byrd (D-WV)

Has any Dem Pres put a black person on the Supreme Court? Nope

.........and for the record, I volunteered for Michael Steele's campaign when he ran agasint Ben Cardin in the 2006 Maryland Senate race. Last I checked he was black.
Your point that blacks vote soley based on race is not supported by any data. Jesse Jackson didn't get anywhere near 91% of black votes when he ran for president. Neither did Al Sharpton. In fact they both got less that 25% of black votes. The white candidates in both races got the overwhelming majority of black votes.

Hillary got almost 75% of black votes until the Iowa caucus. That is when blacks began to support Obama. So your assertion, that blacks vote soley based on race, though commonly repeated by conservatives and republicans is flat out wrong.

I notice you like to say that you supported Michael Steele, and yes he is a black man last I checked too. But he wasn't running for president. Did you vote for Alan Keys when he ran for president? He is a republican and last I checked he is black too.
By the way, neither of those black candidates were supported by sizeable black votes. That's because contrary to your erroneous assertion, blacks tend to vote issues, not race.

Frankly I think it's perfectly understandable that blacks are enthusiastically supporting Obama this election. They are voting their economic, social and political interests. That is voting smart.

When you don't vote your interests due soley to a candidate's race that is voting dumb.
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