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      05-24-2008, 02:23 PM   #1
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Not a good year to be a Republican

GOP SENATE MASSACRE OF '08

By DICK MORRIS





While Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) hangs in there, locked in a tough race with Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.), the Republican undercard is facing obliteration in the 2008 general elections for the Senate. Polling suggests that a massacre may be in the offing ó and one thatís possibly even greater than the worst of previous GOP years: 1958, 1964, 1974, 1986 and 2006.

Scott Rasmussen, whose site, www.rasmussenreports.com , follows these races closely, is producing truly hair-raising polling data.

Of the open Republican Senate seats in contention, Democratic victory seems very likely in Virginia (Democratic former Gov. Mark Warner now has 55 percent, while fellow former Republican Gov. Jim Gilmore stands at 37) and New Mexico (where Democratic Rep. Tom Udall takes 53 percent to GOP Rep. Steve Pearceís 37 and 57 percent to Republican Rep. Heather Wilsonís 36). In Colorado, Democratic Rep. Mark Udall has a narrow lead over Republican Bob Schaffer (45-42). Nebraska would seem safely Republican, but a humongous black turnout in Mississippi could elect former Democratic Gov. Ronnie Musgrove, just as it led to a Democratic congressional victory in a bi-election this month. Score them: two Democrat, one leaning Democrat, one leaning Republican, and one Republican. A net loss of two or three seats.

And then there are the endangered incumbents. Three GOP senators are actually behind their Democratic challengers. Alaskaís Ted Stevens is behind Mark Begich by 47-45. Elizabeth Dole trails Kay Hagan in North Carolina by 48-47. And Jeanne Shaheen is well ahead of John Sununu in New Hampshire, 51-43. Stevensís legal problems and the likely huge black turnout in North Carolina make all three states lean Democratic at this point.

Even when GOP incumbents lead, they are perilously under 50 percent. In Oregon, as of this writing, Gordon Smith leads Jeff Merkley by only 45-42 and Steve Novick by 47-41. And in Texas, John Cornyn leads Rick Noriega by only 47-43. In addition, Norm Coleman in Minnesota is hanging on by his teeth against Al Franken, 50-43; Susan Collins is only narrowly ahead of Rep. Tom Allen in Maine, 52-42; and in Kansas, Pat Roberts holds only a 52-40 lead over Jim Slattery. Mitch McConnell in Kentucky may also be in trouble.

So, among incumbents, score it three leaning Democratic, two tossups, and three leaning Republican.

Overall, thatís a likely Democratic pickup of five seats, with an eight-seat gain possible, and, in a partisan wipeout, a 12-seat shift.

Mon dieu!

In all likelihood, the filibuster will still remain a theoretical Republican option, but, in practical terms, may be beyond reach, especially if Obama wins the White House.

Driving the GOPís imperiled Senate situation, or course, is a massive shift in party identification. While the two parties are normally about tied in party ID, the Democrats now enjoy a 44-30 advantage in the latest Fox News poll of April 29.A combination of the Iraq war, gas prices, the credit crisis and a looming recession are dragging down the Republican Party, big time.

So is a president with a 28 percent approval rating. Bush needs to go out and tell America that things are bad, but not that bad. There are solid signs that the economy may not be tanking after all. Unemployment, while rising, is still at historic lows. The credit crisis has not led to a wholesale collapse of the financial industry and the instability appears to be easing. And, in Iraq, we are approaching a more stable situation with lower combat deaths. Bush, who has largely been hunkered down in the White House, needs to hit the trail and move his ratings up into the mid- or high 30s, not an insurmountable challenge.

Will the endangered Republicans recover? Most have prevailed, in the past, by lifting their personal ratings out of possible danger early in the race. But when long-term incumbents find themselves mired in the high 40s or low 50s in vote share, it indicates a massive voter desire for change that is not likely to abate.

In the House, the incredible three Democratic bi-election victories, combined with the retirements of so many Republican incumbents, indicates that the GOP may be facing disaster there as well.

This is not a good year to be a Republican.
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      05-24-2008, 02:26 PM   #2
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Not worried McCain will take the White House.
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      05-25-2008, 07:54 AM   #3
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Not worried McCain will take the White House.
maybe if they move it to TX...
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      05-27-2008, 05:05 PM   #4
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The Republican congress screwed themselves by acting like Democrats. The idiots should have played hardball when they had the majority. Then they could have accomplished something. But too many are just RINOs like John McCain. It must be time to purge the crap out of congress. Too bad it will put even more crap in their place. This will be painful.
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      05-27-2008, 05:07 PM   #5
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      05-27-2008, 05:07 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TXSurfer View Post
Not worried McCain will take the White House.
McCain is the problem, not the solution.
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      05-27-2008, 05:12 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TXSurfer View Post
Not worried McCain will take the White House.
god forbid no more cowboys in DC, they should be trapped in texas. if mccain takes white house im moving my ass outta this country, it's gonna collapse anyway
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      05-27-2008, 05:15 PM   #8
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if mccain takes white house im moving my ass outta this country
Is that a promise?
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      05-27-2008, 05:18 PM   #9
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god forbid no more cowboys in DC, they should be trapped in texas. if mccain takes white house im moving my ass outta this country, it's gonna collapse anyway
Yeh, I remember 3/4 of Hollywood (entire Baldwin family) saying that when BushII was running against Gore.
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      05-27-2008, 05:18 PM   #10
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Originally Posted by scottwww View Post
McCain is the problem, not the solution.
I disagree with McCain on many issues; campaign finance, ANWR, etc... but to say he is the problem is a bit much. He is right on the war and the threat of Islamic radicalism, he is right on nuclear energy, right on judges. He would not be my first choice but he is heads above the alternative(s).
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      05-27-2008, 06:20 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ganeil View Post
Is that a promise?
but if i do i'll have more time to PW
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Originally Posted by ///Metak View Post
Yeh, I remember 3/4 of Hollywood (entire Baldwin family) saying that when BushII was running against Gore.
well they werent lying were they?
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      05-27-2008, 06:27 PM   #12
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Originally Posted by ///Mantis View Post
but if i do i'll have more time to PW

well they werent lying were they?
As far as I know the Baldwins didn't move to Canada..
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      05-27-2008, 06:58 PM   #13
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As far as I know the Baldwins didn't move to Canada..
oh i thought u were talking about bush II making this country collapse
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      05-28-2008, 09:38 AM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ganeil View Post
I disagree with McCain on many issues; campaign finance, ANWR, etc... but to say he is the problem is a bit much. He is right on the war and the threat of Islamic radicalism, he is right on nuclear energy, right on judges. He would not be my first choice but he is heads above the alternative(s).
McCain is a typical Democrat. Those who wear the Democrat mantle today are closer to Socialist. I have been a Republican. If the party would return to it's identity, I would again be a Republican as it is my best match. Since the party representation has defected, I am left with the next closest match which is the Constitution Party. Not a perfect match, but none are even close this year.

Where McCain is so right on the war, I don't see. His vision of utopia for international politics and cooperations is rather an idealist's dream. That isn't the world we live in, and to have it go that way is far from possible. This thread has started to deal with it.
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      05-28-2008, 10:37 AM   #15
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McCain is a typical Democrat. Those who wear the Democrat mantle today are closer to Socialist. I have been a Republican. If the party would return to it's identity, I would again be a Republican as it is my best match. Since the party representation has defected, I am left with the next closest match which is the Constitution Party. Not a perfect match, but none are even close this year.

Where McCain is so right on the war, I don't see. His vision of utopia for international politics and cooperations is rather an idealist's dream. That isn't the world we live in, and to have it go that way is far from possible. This thread has started to deal with it.
If the typical Democrat was pro-life, supported making the tax cuts permanent , wanted to cut government spending, voted for Bork, Thomas, Scalia, Roberts, and Alito for the Supreme Court, opposed more government control of health care, and wanted to win the war, you might have a point.

When was this "golden age" of Republicanism where you and the party were aligned? I have to assume it wasn't under Reagan since he was such a foreign policy idealist.
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      05-28-2008, 01:06 PM   #16
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Originally Posted by ganeil View Post
I disagree with McCain on many issues; campaign finance, ANWR, etc... but to say he is the problem is a bit much. He is right on the war and the threat of Islamic radicalism, he is right on nuclear energy, right on judges. He would not be my first choice but he is heads above the alternative(s).
....and this is why it is a bad year to be a Repub - McCain is the Nominee and you still cannot get it together...at least we have an excuse in Hillary.
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      05-28-2008, 01:35 PM   #17
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In my lifetime, Reagan was the best of Republican presidents.

Congress had far better Republican results than we have seen in the last 10 years and more (most recently think of Newt Gingrich and the Contract with America). Cooperation across the aisle is what is killing us. McCain leads that charge as Senator, and now as presidential candidate. We need to oppose the left, not become like them. I'll oppose the one who cozies up to my enemy.

I am not a historian, but what I know of them, Goldwater was a good Republican. Perhaps Eisenhower. Not so much T. Roosevelt. How about Lincoln?

Take the greatest Democrats as contrast and you may have a better idea of what I oppose. F. Roosevelt is at the top of that list. Johnson is right up there. On the list, though not even close to the two on top would be Kennedy. Clinton was mediocre, at best. Carter just doesn't belong on any list that includes the word great (except that of greatest failures).

We're really screwed because our weakling Republican congressmen are likely to act even more weakly. The future is bleak. The nation is charging headlong into liberalism.
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      05-28-2008, 03:09 PM   #18
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Republicans could have easily wraped this one up against Obama if they just had a good candidate, McCain is horrible...
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      05-28-2008, 03:46 PM   #19
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Originally Posted by scottwww View Post
In my lifetime, Reagan was the best of Republican presidents.

Congress had far better Republican results than we have seen in the last 10 years and more (most recently think of Newt Gingrich and the Contract with America). Cooperation across the aisle is what is killing us. McCain leads that charge as Senator, and now as presidential candidate. We need to oppose the left, not become like them. I'll oppose the one who cozies up to my enemy.

I am not a historian, but what I know of them, Goldwater was a good Republican. Perhaps Eisenhower. Not so much T. Roosevelt. How about Lincoln?

Take the greatest Democrats as contrast and you may have a better idea of what I oppose. F. Roosevelt is at the top of that list. Johnson is right up there. On the list, though not even close to the two on top would be Kennedy. Clinton was mediocre, at best. Carter just doesn't belong on any list that includes the word great (except that of greatest failures).

We're really screwed because our weakling Republican congressmen are likely to act even more weakly. The future is bleak. The nation is charging headlong into liberalism.
I agree that Reagan was a great president but he was not perfect. He compromised, he made deals with the Democrats, he did most of what you fault McCain for.

The Republicans in Congress did not do themselves justice when they were in the majority and they are paying the price for that. The Democrats are following down the same path and that will have a future impact as well.
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      05-28-2008, 04:03 PM   #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ganeil View Post
I agree that Reagan was a great president but he was not perfect. He compromised, he made deals with the Democrats, he did most of what you fault McCain for.

The Republicans in Congress did not do themselves justice when they were in the majority and they are paying the price for that. The Democrats are following down the same path and that will have a future impact as well.
Reagan was successful at getting Democrats to compromise their position. Where Reagan notably compromised, wasn't that where he had his worst result

Think of deficit spending. There are times that it is appropriate to spend into a deficit. However, we may have been better off if Reagan had taken the approach of rejecting continual deficit spending.

Likely there are several examples that are not fresh in my mind right now.

What good examples do you have of Reagan's compromising Republican principles to our betterment?

Another bad example was amnesty for illegal aliens.
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      05-28-2008, 04:18 PM   #21
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Originally Posted by scottwww View Post
Reagan was successful at getting Democrats to compromise their position. Where Reagan notably compromised, wasn't that where he had his worst result

Think of deficit spending. There are times that it is appropriate to spend into a deficit. However, we may have been better off if Reagan had taken the approach of rejecting continual deficit spending.

Likely there are several examples that are not fresh in my mind right now.

What good examples do you have of Reagan's compromising Republican principles to our betterment?

Another bad example was amnesty for illegal aliens.
Reagan realized, like most successful politicians that compromise is the key to success. He accepted increases in domestic spending to get what he felt was more important; increased defense spending and tax cuts. In a perfect world he would not have had to accept one to get the others but the world is not perfectible.

I think, as he did, that sacrificing the principle of fiscal responsibility to obtain more money for defense was for the better.

John McCain's record is very similar to Reagan's with the exception that McCain has a legislative history that necessarily involves more compromises than an executives.
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