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      12-26-2007, 05:48 PM   #1
burrito007
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M3 rarity - numbers crunch

Ok so everyone is saying that the M3 will be unobtainable for the first year of production. I personally would like to hold out some hope so this analysis is of course biased.

My thinking:
BMW wants to sell 100,000 m3s in the U.S. market. The lifecycle of the previous M3 was 6 years. This works out ot roughly 1667 cars / year. Figure that is 1389 cars/month. Dividing the cars up equally between coasts, and equally between north/south gets 347 cars per quadrant, although I would think the northeast is the bigger market. There are 129 BMW dealers within a 500 mile radius of NYC. This being the case, that would mean each dealer gets 3 cars/month. (assuming some of these dealers are big enough to get that many, and I would expect the ones around NYC to get more). The lists probably top out right now around 20 people. (all of whom will definitely not buy the car). So in the first 5 months the list should be exhausted (assuming that 75% of the people on the list buy the car) By august there should be an ample number of M3s around. If There are 5 m3s on average given to dealers around the NYC area (not very far from possible) this number goes down to 3 months.

If someone can work these numbers better just let me know. I had to assume a lot of things such as the number of dealers in the area, the % car sales distribution, and how many cars the dealers will get /month.

Overall with that 100,000 figure it would seem the m3 is going to be plentiful.
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      12-26-2007, 05:54 PM   #2
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100000 cars will be sold globally. 50000 in the US. There are 366 BMW dealserships in the US. I don't know about the specifics of demand by region. There is probably a good correlation between the overal sales of a dealership, and the number of M3s it will get, meaning the higher volume dealerships should be allocated more cars than the others.

I think a lot of depends on how the car will be priced as that will affect the number of people dropping out of the ordering lines.

Regardless, if you assume "reasonable" pricing and even spread among dealerships, that would mean about 1.9 cars per month. I'd say that means about 1/month for a small low-volume dealership, and 3/month for a large high-volume dealership.

Mine is a small dealership and I am #4 on the list, so I should get mine around April/May if I chose 6MT.

If they price this wrong like they did with the M5 and the M6 (say ~$65k base), one should be able to walk into a dealership cold turkey in the summer, and get one, but that would not be me since I wouldn't pay that much for it and look elsewhere.
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      12-26-2007, 05:57 PM   #3
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do you know that the world is bigger than the USA ?



do it again for the whole earth.

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      12-26-2007, 06:01 PM   #4
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sorry i thought the 100,000 number was just the U.S. market. and 200,000 for global market. Either way, I still think the dealers around me will be getting 4-5 / month considering the volume of business they seem to do. This would still mean only a few months wait.
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      12-26-2007, 06:01 PM   #5
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Yep, 100K for the entire world.

And, on that note I have said before that I dont believe surplus M3's will start popping up in dealers until next fall.

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      12-26-2007, 06:01 PM   #6
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I'm pretty sure you've got that figure wrong. It's 100,000 WORLDWIDE, and something like 55k in the U.S.
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      12-26-2007, 06:10 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by burrito007 View Post
Either way, I still think the dealers around me will be getting 4-5 / month considering the volume of business they seem to do.
They would have to be very high-volume dealerships for them to be getting 4-5/month, but I'd say it is possible.
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      12-26-2007, 08:30 PM   #8
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This topic has been very well discussed in the past here on the forum and I posted an analysis with estimates like the one in the OP quite long ago. My suggestion is to search the forum using google. Use as many terms as you like, use booleans, etc. then just add " site:m3post.com" as end of your query.
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      12-27-2007, 11:20 AM   #9
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yeah but your analysis is from the left coast =P

I'm hoping the NYC are will get a larger % of the allocations.
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      12-27-2007, 12:18 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by burrito007 View Post
yeah but your analysis is from the left coast =P

I'm hoping the NYC are will get a larger % of the allocations.

Oh I hope your wrong!
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      12-27-2007, 02:49 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by burrito007 View Post
yeah but your analysis is from the left coast =P

I'm hoping the NYC are will get a larger % of the allocations.
I have posted multiple analyses and one simply distinguised large from small dealers. The numbers are simple 50k or so cars, 6-7 years of the model, about 350 dealers in the US, some dealers small enough to not get M3s many large enough to get many per month.
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      12-27-2007, 03:41 PM   #12
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I'm going to do some investigating and see how many M3s bmw of manhattan got in 2001 per month and go from there. I'll extrapolate it based on how many m3s were sold in the US from 2001-2006. Do you remember having that data?
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      12-27-2007, 03:52 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by burrito007 View Post
I'm going to do some investigating and see how many M3s bmw of manhattan got in 2001 per month and go from there. I'll extrapolate it based on how many m3s were sold in the US from 2001-2006. Do you remember having that data?
Here you go:

How many examples of the E46 M3 were produced?
ECE M3 coupe (LHD): 16,038 examples produced from 09/00 through 05/06
ECE M3 coupe (RHD): 12,510 examples produced from 02/01 through 05/06
NA M3 coupe (LHD): 26,202 examples produced from 02/01 through 05/06
ECE M3 convertible (LHD): 4,822 examples produced from 02/01 through 08/06
ECE M3 convertible (RHD): 7,234 examples produced from 04/01 through 08/06
NA M3 convertible (LHD): 17,577 examples produced from 03/01 through 08/06
ECE M3 CSL coupe (LHD): 823 examples produced from 5/03 through 12/03*
ECE M3 CSL coupe (RHD): 535 examples produced from 6/03 through 12/03**
* in addition to 18 pre-production prototypes
**in addition to 7 pre-production prototypes

Source: http://www.bmwmregistry.com/model_faq.php?id=19

As you can see, NA numbers add up to 43779.

It's also interesting to see E46 coupe NA production started in February, and convertible in March. Will history repeat itself?
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      12-27-2007, 05:36 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lucid View Post
Here you go:

How many examples of the E46 M3 were produced?
ECE M3 coupe (LHD): 16,038 examples produced from 09/00 through 05/06
ECE M3 coupe (RHD): 12,510 examples produced from 02/01 through 05/06
NA M3 coupe (LHD): 26,202 examples produced from 02/01 through 05/06
Source: http://www.bmwmregistry.com/model_faq.php?id=19
As you can see, NA numbers add up to 43779.

It's also interesting to see E46 coupe NA production started in February, and convertible in March. Will history repeat itself?
Good data! Also interesting to see the 5-mth lag (your final point) from 09/00 to 02/01. Put that in your estimates ...
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      12-27-2007, 08:38 PM   #15
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[quote=lucid;1877487]Here you go:
ECE M3 convertible (LHD): 4,822 examples produced from 02/01 through 08/06
ECE M3 convertible (RHD): 7,234 examples produced from 04/01 through 08/06
NA M3 convertible (LHD): 17,577 examples produced from 03/01 through 08/06
QUOTE]

I find this very interesting....
That RHD outsold the LHD convertible outside of the US.
The M3 convertible was not sold in Asia... so that pretty much leaves RHD cars to be sold in the UK and South Africa. I can't believe that the British bought that many more M3 convertibles than the rest of the world (not counting the US) considering the weather there.
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      12-28-2007, 10:38 AM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by InJapan View Post
The M3 convertible was not sold in Asia... so that pretty much leaves RHD cars to be sold in the UK and South Africa. I can't believe that the British bought that many more M3 convertibles than the rest of the world (not counting the US) considering the weather there.
Also Australia.
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      12-28-2007, 11:03 AM   #17
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Ok well if this is the case, that means that dealers should be getting 2x as many m3s. Several dealers around me reported getting 3 m3s first allocation in 2k1 so 6 now is not out of the question. May 08 = no wait list if this is the case.


Quote:
Originally Posted by lucid View Post
Here you go:

How many examples of the E46 M3 were produced?
ECE M3 coupe (LHD): 16,038 examples produced from 09/00 through 05/06
ECE M3 coupe (RHD): 12,510 examples produced from 02/01 through 05/06
NA M3 coupe (LHD): 26,202 examples produced from 02/01 through 05/06
ECE M3 convertible (LHD): 4,822 examples produced from 02/01 through 08/06
ECE M3 convertible (RHD): 7,234 examples produced from 04/01 through 08/06
NA M3 convertible (LHD): 17,577 examples produced from 03/01 through 08/06
ECE M3 CSL coupe (LHD): 823 examples produced from 5/03 through 12/03*
ECE M3 CSL coupe (RHD): 535 examples produced from 6/03 through 12/03**
* in addition to 18 pre-production prototypes
**in addition to 7 pre-production prototypes

Source: http://www.bmwmregistry.com/model_faq.php?id=19

As you can see, NA numbers add up to 43779.

It's also interesting to see E46 coupe NA production started in February, and convertible in March. Will history repeat itself?
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      12-28-2007, 11:14 AM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by burrito007 View Post
Ok well if this is the case, that means that dealers should be getting 2x as many m3s.
How did you arrive at this conclusion?

50000/43779 does not equal 2.

If you are just counting the coupes, that might be misleading. I think looking at the total number produced would be more predictive.
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