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      01-11-2014, 11:12 AM   #1871
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Keep in mind that some of the 2011 models may have the older bearings. For example my car. It is a 2011 model year but production date was May 2010, therefore it is supposed to have the older thicker bearings.
Same here, 2011, production date May, 2010
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      01-11-2014, 12:41 PM   #1872
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SenorFunkyPants View Post
2008 - 11
2009 - 2
2010 - 2
2011 - 9
2012 - 2
2013 - 4
Quote:
Originally Posted by GIdriver View Post
Keep in mind that some of the 2011 models may have the older bearings. For example my car. It is a 2011 model year but production date was May 2010, therefore it is supposed to have the older thicker bearings.
Indeed...however even if you assume that a few of the 11MY cars had the older bearings the trend is still not showing any improvement for engines with the new bearings with the larger clearance. Especially when you take into account that the average mileage at which the 2008/9/10 cars fail is around 40k miles while the 2011/12/13 cars are failing at an average of 24k miles. If anything, increasing the clearance has made it worse.
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      01-11-2014, 01:28 PM   #1873
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SenorFunkyPants View Post
Indeed...however even if you assume that a few of the 11MY cars had the older bearings the trend is still not showing any improvement for engines with the new bearings with the larger clearance. Especially when you take into account that the average mileage at which the 2008/9/10 cars fail is around 40k miles while the 2011/12/13 cars are failing at an average of 24k miles. If anything, increasing the clearance has made it worse.
Is there any pattern to Geographic location?

Looking at the News bulletins of how cold it is in some parts of the USA is making me shiver. And I thought it was cold here in the North East of England.
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      01-11-2014, 01:58 PM   #1874
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Is there any pattern to Geographic location?
Nothing really stands out other than the complete lack of any European cars.
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      01-11-2014, 03:11 PM   #1875
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Originally Posted by Yellow Snow View Post
Is there any pattern to Geographic location?
Nothing really stands out other than the complete lack of any European cars.
What about warm/cold states?
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      01-11-2014, 03:43 PM   #1876
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SenorFunkyPants View Post
Nothing really stands out other than the complete lack of any European cars.
What about all of the Euro S85's that failed? This is the same failure mode as seen on m5board.
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      01-11-2014, 04:07 PM   #1877
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Might be worthwhile to try contacting Mr. Clay on # of failures they have seen. He used to be active on here.

http://store.bimmerworld.com/s65-rod...kit-p2151.aspx
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      01-11-2014, 04:33 PM   #1878
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Yellow Snow View Post
Is there any pattern to Geographic location?

Looking at the News bulletins of how cold it is in some parts of the USA is making me shiver. And I thought it was cold here in the North East of England.
Guys, you need to be pretty careful on how you use this data. While I appreciate SFP working to get more data, let's examine what he has obtained.

The list of cars is at 30. Of those, 6 were supercharged. 4 of the engines had valve issues, not rod bearing issues. 7 (probably more - some FI cars weren't clearly identified) of the cars had tunes. 1 car had a failed oil pump.

So if we factor out extenuating circumstances, and we assume the best case for missing data, we are left with this:

17 cars failed:
- 6 2008 models
- 2 2009 models
- 1 2010 model
- 6 2011 models
- 2 2012 models

As many have pointed out, 2011 cars often had build dates in 2010. My own M3 has a build date of April 2010 and it is a 2011 model.

So assuming that there is some statistical significance in this smallish amount of data, it does not conflict with the notion that the new bearings reduced the odds of an engine failure.

Pat

Last edited by catpat8000; 01-11-2014 at 04:39 PM.
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      01-11-2014, 05:28 PM   #1879
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Quote:
Originally Posted by catpat8000 View Post
Guys, you need to be pretty careful on how you use this data. While I appreciate SFP working to get more data, let's examine what he has obtained.

The list of cars is at 30. Of those, 6 were supercharged. 4 of the engines had valve issues, not rod bearing issues. 7 (probably more - some FI cars weren't clearly identified) of the cars had tunes. 1 car had a failed oil pump.

So if we factor out extenuating circumstances, and we assume the best case for missing data, we are left with this:

17 cars failed:
- 6 2008 models
- 2 2009 models
- 1 2010 model
- 6 2011 models
- 2 2012 models

As many have pointed out, 2011 cars often had build dates in 2010. My own M3 has a build date of April 2010 and it is a 2011 model.

So assuming that there is some statistical significance in this smallish amount of data, it does not conflict with the notion that the new bearings reduced the odds of an engine failure.

Pat
I did the same with my latest Excel file and I got something a little different.
19 cars failed:
- 6 2008 models
- 1 2009 models
- 1 2010 model
- 7 2011 models
- 2 2012 models
- 2 2013 models

I'll keep on it and see what else I can find out....I still have to re-message some of the voters to help fill in the missing fields.
As you say the sample is very small which in itself is very encouraging.
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      01-11-2014, 05:30 PM   #1880
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FogCityM3 View Post
Might be worthwhile to try contacting Mr. Clay on # of failures they have seen. He used to be active on here.

http://store.bimmerworld.com/s65-rod...kit-p2151.aspx
I'd be a bit nervous taking data from someone with a financial interest in the outcome.
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      01-11-2014, 05:38 PM   #1881
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chris719 View Post
What about all of the Euro S85's that failed? This is the same failure mode as seen on m5board.
I did a count on the S85s earlier in this thread:
post #1087


----------------------------------------------------------------
http://www.m5board.com/vbulletin/e60...lp-advice.html

Here's the UK failure:
http://www.m5board.com/vbulletin/e60...hese-v10s.html

http://www.m5board.com/vbulletin/e60...wn-engine.html

http://www.m5board.com/vbulletin/e60...ml#post1782187

http://www.m5board.com/vbulletin/e60...se-advice.html

http://www.m5board.com/vbulletin/e60...ml#post2270701

as well as the registry I was trying to start:

http://www.m5board.com/vbulletin/e60...-registry.html

---------------------------------------------------

This from a quick look.

M5 S85
Bearing failure - engine tune
Bearing failure at 143000 miles UK
Unknown cause of failure
Oil analysis only
Knock wasn't bearing.
Bearing failure maybe caused by Vanos oil pump failure. Engine tune
Bearing failure - engine tune
Bearing failure - engine tune
Bearing failure - engine tune
Bearing failure
Bearing failure
Bearing failure

12 cases. 10 USA, 1 SA 1 UK.
2 not a failure
1 unknown cause
1 suspected due to Vanos

8 failures where the cause was almost certainly bearing failure.
5 cars had some form of ECU tune.
3 cars that don't state a tune.
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      01-11-2014, 07:46 PM   #1882
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SenorFunkyPants View Post
I'd be a bit nervous taking data from someone with a financial interest in the outcome.
The guy sells parts. That doesn't give him a financial interest in the outcome and a motive to lie about how many sets of bearings he's sold. He sells gas pumps also; does that mean he'll lie if you asked him how many gas pumps he's sold.

BMW has a financial interest in the outcome (reason to lie); not a guy who sells parts.

But I will say this; he's clearly read this thread and made that kit to match my findings not to offer Calico coated bearings because of the decreased clearance. Instead he offers "treated" bearings -- most likely WPC treated bearings (although he doesn't say).

Quote:
Originally Posted by SenorFunkyPants View Post
Nothing really stands out other than the complete lack of any European cars.
Totally understandable to me. Not sure why this is such a mystery. The demographics of this site are English speaking nations, and US & Canada are the largest ones of those. So it's natural that you will see more responses from those regions.
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      01-11-2014, 08:05 PM   #1883
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Wait, so the total number of M3s with rod bearing failures is ~30? Even if you triple that figure it's only ~0.0013% of the ~66k units sold?
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      01-11-2014, 08:13 PM   #1884
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Quote:
Originally Posted by catpat8000 View Post
Guys, you need to be pretty careful on how you use this data. While I appreciate SFP working to get more data, let's examine what he has obtained.

The list of cars is at 30. Of those, 6 were supercharged. 4 of the engines had valve issues, not rod bearing issues. 7 (probably more - some FI cars weren't clearly identified) of the cars had tunes. 1 car had a failed oil pump.

So if we factor out extenuating circumstances, and we assume the best case for missing data, we are left with this:

17 cars failed:
- 6 2008 models
- 2 2009 models
- 1 2010 model
- 6 2011 models
- 2 2012 models

As many have pointed out, 2011 cars often had build dates in 2010. My own M3 has a build date of April 2010 and it is a 2011 model.

So assuming that there is some statistical significance in this smallish amount of data, it does not conflict with the notion that the new bearings reduced the odds of an engine failure.

Pat
Quote:
Originally Posted by SenorFunkyPants View Post
I did the same with my latest Excel file and I got something a little different.
19 cars failed:
- 6 2008 models
- 1 2009 models
- 1 2010 model
- 7 2011 models
- 2 2012 models
- 2 2013 models

I'll keep on it and see what else I can find out....I still have to re-message some of the voters to help fill in the missing fields.
As you say the sample is very small which in itself is very encouraging.
The failure sample is thin, but,...

From a data perspective, the 2011 failures are pretty discouraging. They seem to be gravely contradicting the bearing clearance explanation. Even the oil which has remained a constant parameter isn't fully explaining the 2008 and 2011 failures. I guess I was expecting the trend set from 2009/10 to persist had either oil or clearance were problem areas. Yet we have a spike in 2011 then a similar trend for 12/13 to 09/10 ensues.

Considering these spikes and troughs I would venture to say if there were to be 2014 models we would witness elevated failures too for that production run. Speculation, I know, but it appears there is a pattern which suggests the problem isn't random but very systematic. Could be something systematically flawed in the M production/assembly line, I don't know, but whatever it is, it is rearing its ugly head every 4th year of production. Perhaps, failure patterns, if any, for the s54 and s85 could help shed some light.

That said, I would like to thank the technical guys who have selflessly partook in this thread, I have really learnt a lot.
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      01-11-2014, 08:34 PM   #1885
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mawana View Post
The failure sample is thin, but,...

From a data perspective, the 2011 failures are pretty discouraging. They seem to be gravely contradicting the bearing clearance explanation. Even the oil which has remained a constant parameter isn't fully explaining the 2008 and 2011 failures. I guess I was expecting the trend set from 2009/10 to persist had either oil or clearance were problem areas. Yet we have a spike in 2011 then a similar trend for 12/13 to 09/10 ensues.
I wouldn't be so quick to draw the same conclusion (2011 being discouraging) for two reasons.

First, because most 2011 cars were built in 2010 and likely had the old bearings.

Second because the data sample, while a good start, is still too small. Imagine, as an exercise, that we had only one sample: a 2012 car. Would we be justified in saying that only 2012 model years had problems? Or that the bearing changes made things worse after 2011? Nope, in reality the data size is just too small. So you see how small data sets can be extremely vulnerable to noise swings.

What we all ought to keep doing is to funnel all reports of bad engines to SFP who can keep the canonical database and hopefully with more time, we will see more patterns as the data gets larger.

If you have an engine fault, send it to SFP!

Pat
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      01-11-2014, 08:41 PM   #1886
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dreamspeed View Post
Wait, so the total number of M3s with rod bearing failures is ~30? Even if you triple that figure it's only ~0.0013% of the ~66k units sold?
The point of this exercise is to try and find out as many failures as we can because, even today, nobody outside BMW knows if this is even a problem.

SFP has cataloged 30 or so but a third of these are not relevant (other types of failures, etc) so the current estimates are lower, closer to 20.

As you point out, if the total failure number really is this small, it's pretty typical of most automakers and there is nothing special about this engine. But we don't know this yet.

Pat
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      01-11-2014, 10:36 PM   #1887
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Quote:
Originally Posted by catpat8000
Quote:
Originally Posted by dreamspeed View Post
Wait, so the total number of M3s with rod bearing failures is ~30? Even if you triple that figure it's only ~0.0013% of the ~66k units sold?
The point of this exercise is to try and find out as many failures as we can because, even today, nobody outside BMW knows if this is even a problem.

SFP has cataloged 30 or so but a third of these are not relevant (other types of failures, etc) so the current estimates are lower, closer to 20.

As you point out, if the total failure number really is this small, it's pretty typical of most automakers and there is nothing special about this engine. But we don't know this yet.

Pat
I understand and I've been following the various threads. In typical forum fashion it seems like there is way more panic than necessary ... So far.
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      01-12-2014, 05:20 AM   #1888
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Quote:
Originally Posted by catpat8000 View Post
If you have an engine fault, send it to SFP!
That would be really helpful...I've already had a couple of messages with details which I will check out.
I'm looking for:
Production date
If its your car
Transmission type ( although this doesn't seem to be a factor as far as I can tell)
Miles
if Modified (mostly if supercharged)
Ecu tune
Location
details of failure
a link to photos will be handy as well.

I've made an Excel file which I will attach later - (I am waiting on some permissions to include usernames from the various owners who sent me their failure details by message).
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      01-12-2014, 07:50 AM   #1889
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This is the current standing, still have to add links as well as usernames when permission is granted. I've assumed that if there is a thread containing details of a failure then your username/failure is already in the public domain and I haven't messaged you for your permission. If you don't want your username included then please let me know.
Also let me know if you see any errors as well as any data for the missing fields.


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      01-12-2014, 09:57 AM   #1890
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Quote:
Originally Posted by catpat8000 View Post
I wouldn't be so quick to draw the same conclusion (2011 being discouraging) for two reasons.

First, because most 2011 cars were built in 2010 and likely had the old bearings.

Second because the data sample, while a good start, is still too small. Imagine, as an exercise, that we had only one sample: a 2012 car. Would we be justified in saying that only 2012 model years had problems? Or that the bearing changes made things worse after 2011? Nope, in reality the data size is just too small. So you see how small data sets can be extremely vulnerable to noise swings.

What we all ought to keep doing is to funnel all reports of bad engines to SFP who can keep the canonical database and hopefully with more time, we will see more patterns as the data gets larger.

If you have an engine fault, send it to SFP!

Pat
Fair enough, I just thought maybe there is something hidden deep down in the data we could glean from this. For instance, just looking at the failure data, there is an obvious U-shape at year 1, 4 and prolly 7 had production gone that far.

Even if we assume most of the 2011 failures had the older bearings, it still doesn't explain the 2009/10 trough as those productions also had older bearings.
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      01-12-2014, 11:20 AM   #1891
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I think you have to take some consideration of mileage....the average mileage for failures for 2007-2010 cars is over 40K miles. Few 2011-2013 cars will have reached that mileage yet there are still failures.
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      01-12-2014, 12:45 PM   #1892
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mawana View Post
Fair enough, I just thought maybe there is something hidden deep down in the data we could glean from this. For instance, just looking at the failure data, there is an obvious U-shape at year 1, 4 and prolly 7 had production gone that far.

Even if we assume most of the 2011 failures had the older bearings, it still doesn't explain the 2009/10 trough as those productions also had older bearings.
It would be interesting to see sales volume by year. For example, the entire economy melted down in Q4 2008 and car sales in the US, in 2009, fell off a cliff, especially expensive car sales. 2010 was not much better. Maybe in 2009 BMW only sold a fraction of the cars they sold in 2008 and 2011.

Does anyone know if this data is available?

Pat
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