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      05-15-2013, 05:04 PM   #1409
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Originally Posted by Mr. Liu View Post
Still holding full position fo spy160 puts and iwm94 puts from last week. It has been very, very painful.

Careful with buying puts on anything due to time decay...you have to be correct right away...with calls and puts its never up as much as you think it should when your are correct, and its always down more than you think it should be when you are incorrect.

I speak from experience unfortunately.

Only way to make big money is you have to be correct and it has to trade in your direction many days in a row.

Just chart TVIX over several yrs as an example...you would think there were some bear trends during this time frame but you would never know by looking at the chart.

I think the mkts due for short lived and smallish correction but the trend is up, hence I keep harping on 1750 SPX target...while I will close out longs if I sense brief pullback, I wont short a bull mkt in general...you can get killed by doing this...I will take some smallish short positions on individual stocks though like TSLA.
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      05-15-2013, 05:07 PM   #1410
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Originally Posted by F1Venom View Post
I think it does. The last hour candle was very bullish and it has formed the bottom of a right shoulder on a significant inverse head and shoulder pattern. I think today was the bottom, and if there's selling early on it should get bought up pretty quickly.

I re-bought small AAPL long position today...back in around 425ish...got some room to play with since I got out earlier this around 460.00

It will be easy to dump this one if it doesnt behave since we are at critical level now...not much holding it from tanking to 350.00 if we dont hold here.
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      05-15-2013, 05:15 PM   #1411
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Quote:
Originally Posted by F1Venom View Post
I think it does. The last hour candle was very bullish and it has formed the bottom of a right shoulder on a significant inverse head and shoulder pattern. I think today was the bottom, and if there's selling early on it should get bought up pretty quickly.
Lol how much hype does AAPL need to finish strong at the end of the day? Their move at the end of the day was impressive but doesn't undo what they did during the day. I personally believe those are just day traders getting out of their shorts and pumping up a small rally prior to close. We'll see more down soon enough.
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      05-15-2013, 05:46 PM   #1412
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Originally Posted by mact3333 View Post
I re-bought small AAPL long position today...back in around 425ish...got some room to play with since I got out earlier this around 460.00

It will be easy to dump this one if it doesnt behave since we are at critical level now...not much holding it from tanking to 350.00 if we dont hold here.
I think it is going way lower. There is a gap fill at $417.
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      05-16-2013, 09:13 AM   #1413
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Out of DDD for another 10% gain...showing topping pattern now...3d sector showing at ST to IT topping pattern now.

Rebuy later.
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      05-16-2013, 10:58 AM   #1414
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up 12.00 on AAPL so far...sentiment works well...everyone on this board saying AAPL going into 300's and HF's dumping it like crazy...by the time the dumping is in the news, its already over.

as I keep saying, you have to buy when fear is in the street and even your own mind says stay away...if 85% of people lose on ST trades, you have to do opposite of what your brain is telling you.

Use stop losses and know your limit.

Anyone take the long AAPL trade with me at 425.00?
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      05-16-2013, 11:33 AM   #1415
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That $420 area has strong support on AAPL. I still think it is a dead cat bounce right now and its heading lower, IMO. No position though.
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      05-16-2013, 11:34 AM   #1416
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GOOG looks like a short, IMO. I a bounce to $912 as a possibility today or tomorrow then I'm looking for a push lower to $885.
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      05-16-2013, 11:53 AM   #1417
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Anyone keeping a eye on YELP or GMCR? It looks ready for a next leg up
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      05-16-2013, 02:48 PM   #1418
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out of AAPL for +10...chart looks abit toppy yet again.
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      05-17-2013, 08:09 PM   #1419
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this is the best thread ever
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      05-20-2013, 12:54 PM   #1420
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$SPX will pullback 10-15% and go sub 1500 before September.

#timestamp.
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      05-20-2013, 01:43 PM   #1421
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vanity View Post
$SPX will pullback 10-15% and go sub 1500 before September.

#timestamp.


Timestamp!...I like that...long time no see Vanity.

We are very close to ST/IT top...should see drop, then rise to get all the momo players back in and make slight new high, then a significant pullback...timing is about right...I too see a drop near 1500(maybe abit lower) within next 2-4 months...but then we make new all time highs yet again...odds favor it will be next spring...but modest chance it could happen this fall...depends on how the crazy late coming bulls behave over the next 3-4 months....when mom and pop enter, its the first sign we are near a substantial top...bear will be vicious next year.

The "bear" news will be some made up story serving as the impetus, but the charts are already showing the bear coming...the news will be an excuse...N Korea gonna make some fake noise?......A scuffle with Iran?......Europe going to claim a recession?...but in the end, it will be Bernanke telling us we can no longer have the free crack(i.e.-buying up worthless mortgage backed securities at full price and ending QE officially)...bank on it!

The moves we are seeing in the 3D printing co's and TSLA pretty much says were getting closer to the end....exponential rises....US Dollar breaking out hence the commodities and metals cratering...something has to give eventually.

Now time stamp this! I called for new all time highs a year and a half ago when many were semi-bearish...I am calling for a real bear(later) now when people getting semi-euphoric...the top always comes when you see Dow/SPX related stories on how the stock mkt is a sure thing rah rah rah, esp. in media such as USA Today...thats when you will know...watch for it late this year to early next yr...the sheeple will cause an overthrow on the charts before the collapse...but for now, its all clear......I will be calling the DEFCON alerts later.

You guys will be thanking me later haha...unless you are ungrateful ingrates...
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      05-20-2013, 01:46 PM   #1422
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vanity View Post
$SPX will pullback 10-15% and go sub 1500 before September.

#timestamp.
It's fun to make guesses, but what is your reasoning behind that bold statement?

I'm expecting a short term pullback, but there's absolutely nothing to suggest anything greater than a 4-5% re-adjustment.
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      05-20-2013, 01:53 PM   #1423
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SPX 1500 is the best we'll get until next year? That's horrible! I want ATH's being set every week for a couple more months then we get a full on stock market crash, lol.
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      05-20-2013, 02:06 PM   #1424
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Quote:
Originally Posted by F1Venom View Post
SPX 1500 is the best we'll get until next year? That's horrible! I want ATH's being set every week for a couple more months then we get a full on stock market crash, lol.
"The Street" seems to think much differently.

S&P 2013 Projected Close (Uated 5/14/13):
Mean-1610
Median-1620
High-1760
Low-1390

HSBC, Oppenheimer, Stifel Nicolaus, and Weeden all raised their targets by at least 90 points.
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      05-20-2013, 04:59 PM   #1425
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vanity View Post
$SPX will pullback 10-15% and go sub 1500 before September.

#timestamp.
I will say it will end up in the mid to high 1400 and the dow at the mid 13000 to high 13000.
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      05-20-2013, 07:06 PM   #1426
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It sounds like most of you are basing your hypotheses entirely off technical analysis. While I agree that technical analysis should be strongly considered, I am a big believer that fundamental analysis will win every time in the long run.

The last two big runs we had were in the very late 90s and then in 2007. In both situations the proceding recessions were a direct result of significant flaws in the market.

In the late 90s everyone and their brother was starting up an internet business. Companies were trading at ridiculous prices relative to their earnings and even their earnings potentials.

In the mid 2000s there was a serious lack of regulation with mortgage backed securities. When the housing bubble burst, mortgage backed securities (that were considered AAA in most cases) had a horrible price correction.

Until I see a significant economical flaw in the market, I see nothing to support a correction to the level some of you are suggesting.

I will go on to say that companies like Tesla and 3-D Systems had some good runs, but I expect a sharp pullback with both in the near future. Both are trading at their current levels because of hype rather than their fundamentals.
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      05-20-2013, 10:52 PM   #1427
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mmahany View Post
It sounds like most of you are basing your hypotheses entirely off technical analysis. While I agree that technical analysis should be strongly considered, I am a big believer that fundamental analysis will win every time in the long run.

The last two big runs we had were in the very late 90s and then in 2007. In both situations the proceding recessions were a direct result of significant flaws in the market.

In the late 90s everyone and their brother was starting up an internet business. Companies were trading at ridiculous prices relative to their earnings and even their earnings potentials.

In the mid 2000s there was a serious lack of regulation with mortgage backed securities. When the housing bubble burst, mortgage backed securities (that were considered AAA in most cases) had a horrible price correction.

Until I see a significant economical flaw in the market, I see nothing to support a correction to the level some of you are suggesting.

I will go on to say that companies like Tesla and 3-D Systems had some good runs, but I expect a sharp pullback with both in the near future. Both are trading at their current levels because of hype rather than their fundamentals.
That's the whole point of these corrections or burst of bubble; they come unexpected and nobody knows of the reason why prior.

As for the hype of the stocks you listed, how short can you go before you get your ass handed to you? Apple Had no business being at $700 but it took quiet some time to realize that and the market to price it accordingly. One cannot predict when the market will fundamentally price the stocks correctly and that's the issue with valuations. I agree that in the long run, fundamental analysis will win but lets not forget that it's not fundamentals that prices stock, it's the market and it's participants.
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      05-20-2013, 11:30 PM   #1428
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mmahany View Post
It sounds like most of you are basing your hypotheses entirely off technical analysis. While I agree that technical analysis should be strongly considered, I am a big believer that fundamental analysis will win every time in the long run.

The last two big runs we had were in the very late 90s and then in 2007. In both situations the proceding recessions were a direct result of significant flaws in the market.

In the late 90s everyone and their brother was starting up an internet business. Companies were trading at ridiculous prices relative to their earnings and even their earnings potentials.

In the mid 2000s there was a serious lack of regulation with mortgage backed securities. When the housing bubble burst, mortgage backed securities (that were considered AAA in most cases) had a horrible price correction.

Until I see a significant economical flaw in the market, I see nothing to support a correction to the level some of you are suggesting.

I will go on to say that companies like Tesla and 3-D Systems had some good runs, but I expect a sharp pullback with both in the near future. Both are trading at their current levels because of hype rather than their fundamentals.
What fundamental analysis are you speaking of? Think about the debt ceiling and the budget deficit and Cyprus, Italy, Greece. The only reason the market is in super bull mode right now is because of the fed's continuous $85 billion pump into the market every month. Once the POMO is over we will be in some trouble.

I don't even think a 10-13% pull back in the market is even a huge correction. I think that is a very healthy pull back for the market to go higher. Remember in 2011 when the market had a nice run and in June we had a major correction (~20%+).

DDD is a good company with a high growth rate, IMO. 174% EPS growth rate. It is heading much higher, IMO. Chart is picture perfect.

I really think the solar sector is a bubble ready to pop. Many of the solar stocks has been soaring 100%+ in the past month.
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      05-20-2013, 11:36 PM   #1429
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Elliot Wave 5 wave pattern of the SPX
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      05-21-2013, 12:58 AM   #1430
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mact3333 View Post
Timestamp!...I like that...long time no see Vanity.

We are very close to ST/IT top...should see drop, then rise to get all the momo players back in and make slight new high, then a significant pullback...timing is about right...I too see a drop near 1500(maybe abit lower) within next 2-4 months...but then we make new all time highs yet again...odds favor it will be next spring...but modest chance it could happen this fall...depends on how the crazy late coming bulls behave over the next 3-4 months....when mom and pop enter, its the first sign we are near a substantial top...bear will be vicious next year.

The "bear" news will be some made up story serving as the impetus, but the charts are already showing the bear coming...the news will be an excuse...N Korea gonna make some fake noise?......A scuffle with Iran?......Europe going to claim a recession?...but in the end, it will be Bernanke telling us we can no longer have the free crack(i.e.-buying up worthless mortgage backed securities at full price and ending QE officially)...bank on it!

Now time stamp this! I called for new all time highs a year and a half ago when many were semi-bearish...I am calling for a real bear(later) now when people getting semi-euphoric...the top always comes when you see Dow/SPX related stories on how the stock mkt is a sure thing rah rah rah, esp. in media such as USA Today...thats when you will know...watch for it late this year to early next yr...the sheeple will cause an overthrow on the charts before the collapse...but for now, its all clear......I will be calling the DEFCON alerts later.

You guys will be thanking me later haha...unless you are ungrateful ingrates...
One of the best calls ever made anywhere. Hope you ended up making some serious cash on that one ! And it's good to be back! Hopefully I will get the chance to post in here more often.

Quote:
Originally Posted by mmahany View Post
It's fun to make guesses, but what is your reasoning behind that bold statement?

I'm expecting a short term pullback, but there's absolutely nothing to suggest anything greater than a 4-5% re-adjustment.

It sounds like most of you are basing your hypotheses entirely off technical analysis.
I don't base my macro calls on technicals. I've stated in the past that my most successful trades (i.e, my most successful trade at the start of the New Year which brought in +70% in 3 weeks) are based on pure fundamentals. What are these fundamentals you ask? Look at Options pricing. Follow the money. The smart money.

Back in March we had a large buyer of $SPX long calls when SPX stood at 1550. 85,000 contracts were bought-up by one-single-buyer. The entire trade was worth billions. Right when talks came in around that time of a pullback, a correction, a crash, etc, we had a large buyer step-up to make a long call on the market. Very rare in size since the bulls in this market tend to sell puts to "be long", actually buying 85,000 call contracts meant the SPX actually had to "go up" to make money. Ergo, bam, we went up.

Well now, Options pricing for SPX Skew is looking ugly. Skew climbed 10%+ in 5 sessions. Just trading within the mindset frame of this bull-market since 08', 100% of the time this Options skew has led to a drop of 6-19%. Right now, it's pricing in a -13% drop, but I like to wrap that within 10-15%. Obviously this is not a "guarantee" the market will fall. But certainly it's not a buy-signal for all the bulls who've been in the game since 2008.



Quote:
Originally Posted by Inspired View Post
I will say it will end up in the mid to high 1400 and the dow at the mid 13000 to high 13000.
Sounds like we're on the same page. What's your hypothesis?


P.S. For the ST I still think we go higher. VIX term structures are too expensive, $VIX range-bound between 12-13% as it's fair price atm. Front-month futures will come out. Perhaps by Mid-June we should see the beginnings of some Macro-instability "headlines" come up.Top is forming itself atm, possibly. Won't comment on a Top until I see a lower-high. Rarely do we ever sell-off without having a dip followed by a lower-high.For now, dance till the music stops.
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