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      05-06-2013, 07:01 PM   #1
sunsweet
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Used M3 price depreciation curves all model years 2008-2012

The E92 M3 now in its 6th year of production has depreciated a lot.

Here is the current KBB value for a well equiped* E92 coupe manual

* curves optioned as follow:

for the 2008-2009 models: premium package, navg, premium sound, 19" wheels
for the 2010 model: premium package, technology package, navg, premium sound, 19'' wheels
for the 2011-2012 models: Competition package, premium package, technology package, premium sound, navg



Here is the current KBB value for a stock* E92 M3 coupe manual
* with default options



My observations:
-Depreciation accelerates above 50k.
-Older model years (2008-2009) tend to be more closely valued than recent ones
-A well-equiped 2008 with 80K miles in good condition is worth less than $30K now and a stock one less than $27K.
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      05-10-2013, 12:12 AM   #2
hickuptruck
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Thanks for the graphs! Looking at Autotrader though, prices have gone up since Jan./Feb. There are still people with 08's with well over 30-40k miles asking $38-40k. The used market for E92/90 M3s sucks right now.
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      05-10-2013, 12:57 AM   #3
fastmike
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hickuptruck View Post
Thanks for the graphs! Looking at Autotrader though, prices have gone up since Jan./Feb. There are still people with 08's with well over 30-40k miles asking $38-40k. The used market for E92/90 M3s sucks right now.
Interesting to know that I'm not the only one who plots used car data.

But 27k for an 08? I think that's a steal!

How well does KBB correlate with autotrader?
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      05-10-2013, 11:37 AM   #4
saveferris
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Another resource for values over time is cargurus.com. It may not be as granular as you want but it's a good place for price trends...

http://www.cargurus.com/Cars/price-trends/BMW-M3-d390
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      05-10-2013, 11:53 AM   #5
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Good work. I'll keep you in mind when I'm ready to sell.
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      05-13-2013, 01:34 AM   #6
sunsweet
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hickuptruck View Post
Looking at Autotrader though, prices have gone up since Jan./Feb. There are still people with 08's with well over 30-40k miles asking $38-40k. The used market for E92/90 M3s sucks right now.
These curves are up to date for selling prices as of beginning of may. The curves where lower in jan/feb you are right. As for autotrader keep in mind that at any point in time overpriced listings inventory will always outnumber well priced listings. That is because they take longer to sell. But inventory is not availability. In fact more well priced will sell than you can account for by just looking at inventory at any point in time. It's a typical buyer's mistake to take a weighted average of all asking prices and then take a few thousands off that and think that's a fair price. Doing that you will overshoot average selling prices. You have to account for how long a listing has been online. It's the same for real estate.

In flow theory : Inventory = selling rate * latency

Inventory = how many cars currently listed for sale
selling rate = how many cars sell each day
latency = how many days on autotrader before selling

Assume 50% are overpriced and 50% well priced and that overall the market is well balanced between demand and supply so that selling rate is fairly constant. Then,

Inventory_overpriced = selling_Rate * latency_overpriced
Inventory_wellpriced = selling_Rate * latency_wellpriced

if latency_overpriced = 15 days and latency_wellpriced = 3 days then you will see 5 times more overpriced car on autotrader at any given time. And yet the ratio of sold car will be 1 overpriced for each well priced. not 5 to 1.

Last edited by sunsweet; 05-13-2013 at 01:42 AM.
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