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      09-09-2007, 05:32 PM   #1
NewhouseEnt
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U.S. M3 Price mathed out

This blog has done an excellent job at gauging and estimating the price of the M3. I think its probably dead on, since the M3 is already selling/ priced in Europe.

http://www.edbmw.com/blog/2007/04/30...0000-to-65000/
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      09-09-2007, 05:34 PM   #2
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Similar estimates and methods to what we've seen thrown around here in the past.

Good site.
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06/2008: M3, 335+Dinan, or ...
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      09-10-2007, 11:11 AM   #3
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Its as good a guess as any but I dont agree with the method. For one thing the author is not taking into account the ratios of autos actually being sold. For example, over the course of the E92's life span BMW is hoping to sell 100k total worldwide, and half of that in the USA alone. Does anyone know if the ratio of 335i converts to M3's marketed to the UK is the same as the USA? My guess is the the ratio is quite a bit different. I am too lazy to find out myself.

But personally I think using other countires is the wrong way to guestimate the price of the new M3 in the US. Some ratios and percantage increases model to model are really high in some countries and really low in others. Each country is its own animal so its hard to use data from the UK or any other country to correlate a price for the USA.

Although the new M is going to be more expensive it is also going to be much more available in the USA and I would guess BMW is pricing the M3 to sell well. Especially if BMW expects to sell 50K of these babies. I think the price needs to be very appealing to the customer and to me a base price of over 60K just doesnt look right.

But like I said, its anybodies guess. However, I have an order through Military sales and dont expect a base of much more than 57K.

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Last edited by JEllis; 09-10-2007 at 11:31 AM.
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      09-10-2007, 11:15 AM   #4
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P.S. I am really hoping the US gets its price at the press release tomorrow!

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      09-10-2007, 11:19 AM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JEllis View Post
Each country is its own animal so its hard to use data from the US to correlate a price for the USA.
I agree with the different markets having somewhat different supply/demand situations point of view. One other thing that ties into that consideration is how the base car will be equipped exactly. For instance, in the UK navigation and leather are standard I think. I doubt that will be the case here in the US, which would really impact the base price.
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      09-10-2007, 11:58 AM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lucid View Post
I agree with the different markets having somewhat different supply/demand situations point of view. One other thing that ties into that consideration is how the base car will be equipped exactly. For instance, in the UK navigation and leather are standard I think. I doubt that will be the case here in the US, which would really impact the base price.
Exactly, the UK gets alot more base options, the US cars will come pretty much as bare bone cars. So that guy's guess cant be accountable at all. The RS4 came pretty much loaded for $66K, there wasnt much options you could add. Again, the M3 will totally be stripped, which will affect base price.
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      09-10-2007, 06:31 PM   #7
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Only OK

A lot more detailed analysis has been posted here. Folks compared the new M3 to the M5, the 550 to the M5, to the 335i, the old M3 to the old 328, the E60 M5 vs. the E39 M5, the RS4, etc., etc. Folks have used exclusively US prices for scaling, US and foreign prices, just about every comparison under the sun. Most of those concluded high $50's. Some still are hoping and praying for low 50's and others are dead sure it will be $70k with a "few" "key" options. I never like those super vague estimates as they are open to complete interpretation.

I just can't decide which side of the very important 60k "psychological barrier" BMW will fall on. It is certainly "worth" low 60s in IMHO but they would probably sell. Assuming they can sell 50k cars at $62k they only have to sell 7% or so more cars (about 3500 cars) to make more money selling them at $58k. I think that $4k price difference would probably support the extra 3500 cars.

Don't we have an outstanding bet on pricing among a couple members as well??
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      09-10-2007, 07:20 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by swamp2 View Post
A lot more detailed analysis has been posted here. Folks compared the new M3 to the M5, the 550 to the M5, to the 335i, the old M3 to the old 328, the E60 M5 vs. the E39 M5, the RS4, etc., etc. Folks have used exclusively US prices for scaling, US and foreign prices, just about every comparison under the sun. Most of those concluded high $50's. Some still are hoping and praying for low 50's and others are dead sure it will be $70k with a "few" "key" options. I never like those super vague estimates as they are open to complete interpretation.

I just can't decide which side of the very important 60k "psychological barrier" BMW will fall on. It is certainly "worth" low 60s in IMHO but they would probably sell. Assuming they can sell 50k cars at $62k they only have to sell 7% or so more cars (about 3500 cars) to make more money selling them at $58k. I think that $4k price difference would probably support the extra 3500 cars.

Don't we have an outstanding bet on pricing among a couple members as well??
My current thinking is that this thing will most likely come in at $57k-$59k, with some kind of broader confidence interval across $55k-$62k.

If you are referring to the exchange I had with another member regarding a bet: I wanted to bet higher than $54.5k and he wanted to bet lower than $56.0k, so it never happened.
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      09-10-2007, 08:07 PM   #9
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CI

Quote:
Originally Posted by lucid View Post
My current thinking is that this thing will most likely come in at $57k-$59k, with some kind of broader confidence interval across $55k-$62k.

If you are referring to the exchange I had with another member regarding a bet: I wanted to bet higher than $54.5k and he wanted to bet lower than $56.0k, so it never happened.
Too bad it never made it to a bet.

My confidence interval is really high on the 58-63 number. Do you really need to go as low as $55k to have a high confidence?
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      09-10-2007, 08:16 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by swamp2 View Post
My confidence interval is really high on the 58-63 number. Do you really need to go as low as $55k to have a high confidence?
The reason I have a large interval is the ambiguity associated with the standard equipment in the base car in the US. If I knew what the basic configuration was, I would be willing to guess a tighter interval. Leather seats can make a $1.5k difference, navigation probably around $2.5k, and then the smaller things that really add up like power seat memory, rain sensors, etc.
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      09-10-2007, 09:39 PM   #11
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I'll be brief here as I have posted this before; M3<60k.
I just can't get around the fact the increase would be close to that.
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      09-10-2007, 09:50 PM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NewhouseEnt View Post
This blog has done an excellent job at gauging and estimating the price of the M3. I think its probably dead on, since the M3 is already selling/ priced in Europe.

http://www.edbmw.com/blog/2007/04/30...0000-to-65000/
The joy of math in this case is that you can simply pick a price and then choose from a myriad of price comparison schemes to arrive at what you want to.

I think that estimates based on Math are better than ones that aren't but in the grand scheme of things it still doesn't mean anything and as people mentioned in the thread, different base equipment levels affect these things as well.

Here is math proving a $56.5k base price that is based on BMWNA pricing policy in terms of what premium is associated with M cars over top of the range non M cars:

More numbers for you....

2003 M5 MSRP - 70,400
2003 540i 6SPD MSRP - 55,800

% Premium for E39 M5 vs E39 540i = 26%

2006 M5 MSRP - 81,200
2006 550I 6SPD MSRP - 58,500

% Premium for E60 M5 vs E60 550i = 38%

% Increase In Premium from 2003 to 2006, 31%

---------------------------------------------------
Now Let's apply that to the E90...
2007 335i MSRP - 40,600
On the E46 there was a 30% Premium for the M3, now let's compound that with a 31% Increase (based on E39 vs E60). This yields a total cost increase against the E90 of 39.3%. Apply that to the E90 base price yields 56,500.
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      09-10-2007, 09:56 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Smoltz View Post
The joy of math in this case is that you can simply pick a price and then choose from a myriad of price comparison schemes to arrive at what you want to.

I think that estimates based on Math are better than ones that aren't but in the grand scheme of things it still doesn't mean anything and as people mentioned in the thread, different base equipment levels affect these things as well.

Here is math proving a $56.5k base price that is based on BMWNA pricing policy in terms of what premium is associated with M cars over top of the range non M cars:

More numbers for you....

2003 M5 MSRP - 70,400
2003 540i 6SPD MSRP - 55,800

% Premium for E39 M5 vs E39 540i = 26%

2006 M5 MSRP - 81,200
2006 550I 6SPD MSRP - 58,500

% Premium for E60 M5 vs E60 550i = 38%

% Increase In Premium from 2003 to 2006, 31%

---------------------------------------------------
Now Let's apply that to the E90...
2007 335i MSRP - 40,600
On the E46 there was a 30% Premium for the M3, now let's compound that with a 31% Increase (based on E39 vs E60). This yields a total cost increase against the E90 of 39.3%. Apply that to the E90 base price yields 56,500.
Decent. Better than some. Would tend to shift my stock towards this one.
When I first read the OP, my beef was with the usage of UK percentages.
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      09-10-2007, 10:08 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Epacy View Post
Decent. Better than some. Would tend to shift my stock towards this one.
When I first read the OP, my beef was with the usage of UK percentages.
When I did this a while back I was pretty confident in it. At this point, I am just taking the wait and see approach.

I do think that what a lot of other comparisons leave out is that the US Market gets the best prices and BMW wants to move a lot of M3s in the US. I beleive that these two factors will work together to bring the price below what any international comparison estimate will yield.

-Adam
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      09-11-2007, 06:23 AM   #15
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Anybody else curious if we will find out the price today at some point after the press release?

Jason
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      09-11-2007, 07:44 AM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JEllis View Post
Anybody else curious if we will find out the price today at some point after the press release?
Yeah, I wondered about that, too. But it might make more sense for them to disclose US pricing during a US event maybe? When is the next major US auto show? Or, they might simply release it when nothing big is happening. How was it done in the past?
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      09-11-2007, 08:07 AM   #17
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We won't see pricing at Frankfurt........
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      09-12-2007, 07:00 PM   #18
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The Dollar hits all time low against the Euro

This happened today. The exchange rate must have some kind of an effect on US pricing. I have no idea what the projected profit margin for US sales is supposed to be on this car, but you'd think it must have shrunk considerably given the recent trends in the exchange rate (I am assuming the majority of the production is done in the EU). Projected supply/demand curves will be the main factor in determining the price, but profit margins, and the effect of the exchange rate on the margins, cannot be ignored. Not good news.
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      09-14-2007, 11:39 AM   #19
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Well, 60+ would put it out my price range, unless of course my financial situation changes.

I would have bought one if base price was in the low 50's, but I suppose that's unrealistic to expect.

I'll probably be buying one slightly used in 2009.
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      09-14-2007, 06:20 PM   #20
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Hmmm...I originally guestimated that it would be about $56-57k for starting price- $60k for a base car may be a bit much.
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      09-15-2007, 08:04 AM   #21
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Quote:
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Hmmm...I originally guestimated that it would be about $56-57k for starting price- $60k for a base car may be a bit much.
Either road or track or car and driver that I read at the grocery store last night has their guess at the base as $62k. Too rich for my blood. I wil stick with my 335 + procede, although I would much rather have the M3, its an amazing piece of art!

THe mag also said 0-62 in 4.2!
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      09-15-2007, 01:55 PM   #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by scottp999 View Post
Either road or track or car and driver that I read at the grocery store last night has their guess at the base as $62k. Too rich for my blood. I wil stick with my 335 + procede, although I would much rather have the M3, its an amazing piece of art!

THe mag also said 0-62 in 4.2!
That $62k figure is ambigious since it might or might not include car as tested with options, but it sure is possible.
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