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      02-23-2013, 02:58 PM   #1277
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Rotation is just barley starting: out of hi betas, into staples (KO, MCD), and into other dividend paying stocks (safer). If you haven't closed out some of your longs, now is the time to do so. We're in for a correction. IMO, today's decline is considered a buy and we'll try one more time up before we see a true top.
As stated, the declines were considered a buy and I still see us trying the top again before we see a true reversal.
Agreed, I'm looking at a turnaround in almost all currencies against the dollar. Meaning the dollar should lose some value in the coming week or so leading to equities rallying
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      02-25-2013, 03:56 PM   #1278
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Whoa! What a finish!
Out of TVIX, but got in VXX midday for some of the action!
Beginning of the (minor) correction gents?
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      02-25-2013, 04:22 PM   #1279
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is anyone afraid yet?...prob not...you will be...

Did anyone accept my warnings over a week ago?...act one it?...prob not...but you will...
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      02-25-2013, 04:26 PM   #1280
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Bought UVXY mid day for a casual 15%. I'm short URI for tomorrow. Does anybody think the sequester is a catalyst for a big correction?
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      02-25-2013, 06:45 PM   #1281
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Killed most of my long stocks today..wish I did it sooner lol
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      02-25-2013, 07:35 PM   #1282
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Euro rallied hard last night and than took a dump right before us open and has been falling since, thank you Italy
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      02-26-2013, 05:55 AM   #1283
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Agreed, I'm looking at a turnaround in almost all currencies against the dollar. Meaning the dollar should lose some value in the coming week or so leading to equities rallying
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      02-26-2013, 08:52 AM   #1284
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Agreed, I'm looking at a turnaround in almost all currencies against the dollar. Meaning the dollar should lose some value in the coming week or so leading to equities rallying
Sorry, I should have been more clear on that. What I'm looking for is a clean upward stochastic crossover on the daily for a lot of pairs as the markets are extremely oversold. For example by clean I mean the cross has to hold for more than a day. The eur/usd rallied hard yesterday morning before US open and than got obliterated when uncertainty about the election emerged. During the time of the rally there actually was a daily crossover symbolizing a change in momentum, but it quickly unraveled indicating a sharp pull back.
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      02-26-2013, 10:49 AM   #1285
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sequester and italy is just noise...mkts do what they must...news is just noise like it always is...one sector looks like a bottom now and will make the move before rest of the mkt reverses...thats is where I am headed now....this sector has rock bottom sentiment, a key ingredient you have to see before a true IT bottom.

when people on this thread start to throw in the towel en mass, we will be close to a bottom.
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      02-27-2013, 03:37 AM   #1286
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sequester and italy is just noise...mkts do what they must...news is just noise like it always is...one sector looks like a bottom now and will make the move before rest of the mkt reverses...thats is where I am headed now....this sector has rock bottom sentiment, a key ingredient you have to see before a true IT bottom.

when people on this thread start to throw in the towel en mass, we will be close to a bottom.
No sharing?
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      02-27-2013, 12:24 PM   #1287
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Just happened to click the thread and saw my name! After the +10 move in SPX yesterday I exited my vol short position. I was expecting a dip today but I don't think anyone saw -20 SPX points today. Here's the kicker. Today the index lost -1.25% but cash VIX popped 19%. Not sure if you're familiar with vol but that is much too high of a jump. Usually correlated around +5-9% on the spot VIX when the index sells off 1% like this. Instead, we saw +19% which means we either go to hell tomorrow to justify this VIX pop (another -20 point day) or this vol is coming down. Here's a fact though: 10% of the VIX call volume was from ONE very large trader. This trader SOLD his long vol positions into the close today, which tells me even he realizes this was overdone today. I am short fol as of the close of the index. XIV @ $21.98. Time stamped.



Vol would agree with you. If we get a flat to up day tmr, $vix could drop 6-12%, driving down futures by a lesser amount (probably 4-8%). This would hurt the most people. We would run up again, make a second lower high and then kaboom (possibility). $vix spike might have just been a warning flare, not the actual Calvary yet.

P.s. never touch TVIX, the vehicle does not track it's NAV correctly and will piss you off trying to capitalize on VIX spikes. Go with VXX. Never touch 2x Vix etfs unless you seriously want to not be able to cover your losses when it goes down.

After the selloff from 1530 to 1500, we indeed got our bounce back rally to 1526 (the lower high I discussed), before coming down much harder to 1480. Yesterday we saw more of the same in the VIX, exceptionally high moves in VIX that over exaggerated the downswing in the SPX. We got exceptional record breaking call activity in the VIX as well. Historically, you'd win 85% of the time shorting large VIX call volume. My original position in XIV at $21.98 was averaged down into the low 18's while I played VXX and UVXY yesterday. I held XIV overnight and today has seen that bullish bet pay off.

VIX calls are getting crushed. $VIX is retracing roughly 60% of its move up. I'm up +50% on my portfolio this week. Just this week. Great week! Not sure if anyone here is listening. I do make my posts very micro-detailed, if anyone was reading I hope you took the advice and re-shorted the market with VIX when we made our lower high at 1526.

Right now, there is a real possibility of re-hitting $22.00 or more on XIV (depending on if we get rejected at 1510 or not). My suspicion is that the VIX spike we have seen recently is still the warning flare I discussed. Not the actual Calvary yet. When this bounce higher (maybe to 1520?) ends, and takes the money out of the record 1.3 M VIX calls purchased yesterday, then, then, we might get the mother kahuna in VIX. (We shall see later on if there are any new variables that come up in VIX structuring).

Happy trading.
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      02-27-2013, 01:52 PM   #1288
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Just happened to click the thread and saw my name! After the +10 move in SPX yesterday I exited my vol short position. I was expecting a dip today but I don't think anyone saw -20 SPX points today. Here's the kicker. Today the index lost -1.25% but cash VIX popped 19%. Not sure if you're familiar with vol but that is much too high of a jump. Usually correlated around +5-9% on the spot VIX when the index sells off 1% like this. Instead, we saw +19% which means we either go to hell tomorrow to justify this VIX pop (another -20 point day) or this vol is coming down. Here's a fact though: 10% of the VIX call volume was from ONE very large trader. This trader SOLD his long vol positions into the close today, which tells me even he realizes this was overdone today. I am short fol as of the close of the index. XIV @ $21.98. Time stamped.



Vol would agree with you. If we get a flat to up day tmr, $vix could drop 6-12%, driving down futures by a lesser amount (probably 4-8%). This would hurt the most people. We would run up again, make a second lower high and then kaboom (possibility). $vix spike might have just been a warning flare, not the actual Calvary yet.

P.s. never touch TVIX, the vehicle does not track it's NAV correctly and will piss you off trying to capitalize on VIX spikes. Go with VXX. Never touch 2x Vix etfs unless you seriously want to not be able to cover your losses when it goes down.

After the selloff from 1530 to 1500, we indeed got our bounce back rally to 1526 (the lower high I discussed), before coming down much harder to 1480. Yesterday we saw more of the same in the VIX, exceptionally high moves in VIX that over exaggerated the downswing in the SPX. We got exceptional record breaking call activity in the VIX as well. Historically, you'd win 85% of the time shorting large VIX call volume. My original position in XIV at $21.98 was averaged down into the low 18's while I played VXX and UVXY yesterday. I held XIV overnight and today has seen that bullish bet pay off.

VIX calls are getting crushed. $VIX is retracing roughly 60% of its move up. I'm up +50% on my portfolio this week. Just this week. Great week! Not sure if anyone here is listening. I do make my posts very micro-detailed, if anyone was reading I hope you took the advice and re-shorted the market with VIX when we made our lower high at 1526.

Right now, there is a real possibility of re-hitting $22.00 or more on XIV (depending on if we get rejected at 1510 or not). My suspicion is that the VIX spike we have seen recently is still the warning flare I discussed. Not the actual Calvary yet. When this bounce higher (maybe to 1520?) ends, and takes the money out of the record 1.3 M VIX calls purchased yesterday, then, then, we might get the mother kahuna in VIX. (We shall see later on if there are any new variables that come up in VIX structuring).

Happy trading.
You're up 50% this week?

I hate you

I've been experimenting right now with automatic trading for foreign exchange it's doing decently up about 3% on the week. It trades off a 15 min chart with only a 225MVA and off of stochastic.

Clearly I'm in the wrong business haha trading volatility is the way to go. Ive been reading a little up on it as i might pursue my MFE, any advice good sir?
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      02-27-2013, 02:28 PM   #1289
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Whats Vix
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      02-27-2013, 02:36 PM   #1290
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I realize that I can't do my day job when trading vol.
I made a noob mistake by setting up a sell order (when I wanted a stop order) when I was away from my terminal. It ended up being the right trade for me as VXX took a dump yesterday (and today)

Once we retest new highs and enter the dumb money, we will start our corrective phase and vol will be back on.

Thanks again for all those that contribute. This thread has made me a better trader.
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      02-27-2013, 04:56 PM   #1291
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You're up 50% this week?

I hate you

I've been experimenting right now with automatic trading for foreign exchange it's doing decently up about 3% on the week. It trades off a 15 min chart with only a 225MVA and off of stochastic.

Clearly I'm in the wrong business haha trading volatility is the way to go. Ive been reading a little up on it as i might pursue my MFE, any advice good sir?
My only advice to you if you're interested in vol is to first understand yourself well. Vol is, obviously, the most volatile thing you can play in the market (next to betting on biotech earnings, lmao). The psychology in playing vol will rip some people apart (when I first started, sleep was very bad). Case in point, my worst loss was -$65,000 on an overnight position. That's one day. The swings in vol are huge. It took me a while before I could properly evaluate the risk involved.

Understand the term structure, contango, backwardation, roll yield, etc. Know it cold that you could teach somebody it. Know it so well you can listen to news and evaluate if the fear is overdone or not based on looking at the term structure. Ex. Fiscal cliff drove VIX up 40% in 5 days. I shorted that into the new year on the 28th of dec knowing the term structure didn't support the move. Next day was the single biggest drop in vol on record. But it would have sucked for everyone shorting into the new year. Huge losses over one day.

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Whats Vix
Don't touch volatility.

Quote:
Originally Posted by slamako View Post
I realize that I can't do my day job when trading vol.
I made a noob mistake by setting up a sell order (when I wanted a stop order) when I was away from my terminal. It ended up being the right trade for me as VXX took a dump yesterday (and today)

Once we retest new highs and enter the dumb money, we will start our corrective phase and vol will be back on.

Thanks again for all those that contribute. This thread has made me a better trader.
Oh boy that made me cringe. Think about how bad it could've gotten if your order was the other way around. Yikes.



Anyways, I discussed above the prospect or XIV hitting $22.00 if the market broke 1510. It did, but then stopped at 1520 and got rejected there. $21.00 may be all XIV wrote. We will have to see what is the outcome of the 1520 rejection tomorrow. I've liquidated my XIV and holding VXX now overnight @ $23.24. (Held it at 23.01 briefly but got stopped out when VXX dropped to $22.85. Argh!

Wish me luck fellas.
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      02-27-2013, 05:56 PM   #1292
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sequester and italy is just noise...mkts do what they must...news is just noise like it always is...one sector looks like a bottom now and will make the move before rest of the mkt reverses...thats is where I am headed now....this sector has rock bottom sentiment, a key ingredient you have to see before a true IT bottom.

when people on this thread start to throw in the towel en mass, we will be close to a bottom.
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My guess is the material sector. They've had the largest pullback out of all the other sectors in the SPX. Look there, it's probably where Mact is looking.
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      02-28-2013, 04:53 PM   #1293
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Let the games begin!
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      02-28-2013, 05:13 PM   #1294
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Quite the finish on SPY today!
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      03-01-2013, 12:09 PM   #1295
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can no longer support AAPL...broken on monthly now....hmmm....better start going up soon or its going to get ugly.
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      03-01-2013, 04:36 PM   #1296
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can no longer support AAPL...broken on monthly now....hmmm....better start going up soon or its going to get ugly.
i got a pretty reliable tip that aapl's going straight to 300... i'm not making a bet, just sayin'. i would short if it dead cat bounces back to 500, which now is looking unlikely. fawk!
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      03-02-2013, 08:39 AM   #1297
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i got a pretty reliable tip that aapl's going straight to 300... i'm not making a bet, just sayin'. i would short if it dead cat bounces back to 500, which now is looking unlikely. fawk!
who's you're reliable tip? if he's your FA, i'd argue that he's speculating as much as other guy
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      03-02-2013, 11:17 PM   #1298
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who's you're reliable tip? if he's your FA, i'd argue that he's speculating as much as other guy
i'll tell you if it turns out right (though i don't have an fa, i'm an fa (unofficially of course))

Last edited by amanda hor$t; 03-02-2013 at 11:33 PM.
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