Stock market Thread II--Technical Analysis

[Inspired]

Originally Posted by mact3333

yeah I also warned about AAPL here a month ago or so...but the charts say the selling should be over soon...I am cost averaging so dont need to catch the absolute bottom....will buy more if it goes down next week.

But I will say this, I dont think I have ever not seen a true bottom when people were saying the exact things I am hearing on this thread about AAPL...you gotta buy when your brain tells you not to, do exactly opposite of what your emotions and brain are telling you and you will be better off....if the masses say stay away you gotta buy...hence my position in RIMM awhile back, everyone hated RIMM when it was below 10.00...and now AAPL, people hate this stock all of a sudden but its a growth company who is still the leader of tech trading at a PE of 10...revenue growth still 25% but earnings have flattened but I bet iphone 5S surprises to the upside....

Cant make money by following the herd...many people finally went long AAPL when it touched 500 and felt great when it saw 700 for a split second, but the problem is people never know when and how to get out...they will ride this thing down all the way to the bottom(like right about now haha) before capitulating...I feel more confident in this trade knowing people are advising against it and saying it could drop another 200 pt's.

The weak hands will sell to me right about now as I sense there is capitulation now and be very angry 1 yr from now when the true mkt top will hit.,,,even if it goes to 400.00 doesnt matter to me as it will be higher than 450.00 soon enough.

This thread was started by me to use technical analysis to establish entry and exit points based on a theory...doesnt really matter if you are right or wrong, just have to take a stand based on charts , a theory and maybe even fundamentals...but one thing you should do on this thread is the have the balls to take a position and announce your entry point so it has a time stamp..."I am up 50% in 2 wks" is meaningless unless you timestamp your entry cause anyone can say I am up 50% and you might be not be making it up if you take a small meaningless position in many stocks and you post the one that sticks.

I want to see charts or some form of data to show "why" you took the position...that is the true value of this thread...for others to learn different trading styles and theories.

Some people use Elliott Wave, some cycles work, some pure technical analysis, some use Dow Theory and some sentiment indicators(I like this form of trading myself).

GL ...imho if you wanmt to make money this yr you better have a long bias.

Very good points. Fib arc shows support at the $420-425 range. I'll be looking to go long soon when it hits those target.

AAPL just hit a $435 low after hours. Would love to see how AAPL opens on Monday. Three days of sell off usually show a bottom of some sort.

Originally Posted by e92tt1986

GDX looks very good
Would you guys recommend picking up some on monday?

Very risky play. I have been keeping up with NUGT and nearly bought on Thursday but luckily I didn't. Will have to see how these gold mining stocks do on Monday. Technical analysis is showing GLD/SLV will slide even lower.

[BMW E90]

Just heard the news today. A few months ago I suspected that Apple's stock would drop because it's already hit a very high point. After that many things caused me to doubt their profitability in the near future. It's crazy to see that they went from almost $700 a share to less than $450.

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by mact3333

This thread was started by me to use technical analysis to establish entry and exit points based on a theory...doesnt really matter if you are right or wrong, just have to take a stand based on charts , a theory and maybe even fundamentals...but one thing you should do on this thread is the have the balls to take a position and announce your entry point so it has a time stamp..."I am up 50% in 2 wks" is meaningless unless you timestamp your entry cause anyone can say I am up 50% and you might be not be making it up if you take a small meaningless position in many stocks and you post the one that sticks.

I want to see charts or some form of data to show "why" you took the position...that is the true value of this thread...for others to learn different trading styles and theories.

Some people use Elliott Wave, some cycles work, some pure technical analysis, some use Dow Theory and some sentiment indicators(I like this form of trading myself).

GL ...imho if you wanmt to make money this yr you better have a long bias.

Thanks for calling me out. If anyone is curious, I do derivatives trading on futures markets. I initiated the position Dec. 28th, 2012. It revolved around shorting the VIX. I've had people PM me for more information on this return and what I did. I can say this now, and listen up Mact, I didn't use Technical Analysis on this. It was straight raw fundamentals.

There were no "charts" or lines that I graphed out for this position. There were no "resistance" or "support" levels. There was no analyzing of fib levels, MACD's, Stochastics, etc. No Technicals, at all. Period. This gain came from straight-up understanding term structures, valuations, and excessive premiums. The position was initiated with the full-understanding that an excess of premium had built up in the VIX term structure. I shorted it with 110% leverage. I was absolutely confident the trade would pan out, as it fundamentally should have. TA would have made me completely miss this trade. That I am completely confident of. TA may work for you and what you're doing, but for this particular trade it would not have.

And you were incorrect about the 50% return. It's now 60%. I did hit a high of 67% this week, but there was a slight pull back in my position. As always, I give you a snapshot of my entire portfolio's M.W.R. There were no other positions in my account. And considering I went 110% leverage, you can be sure I put my money where my mouth is, and then some.


P.S. Maximum drawdown on this position has been at 10%.








.

[mact3333]

Vanity

Sorry if it seemed like I was calling you out. I really wasn't. My point is that for others to learn , people posting trades should give a reason why did it and post real time trades.

These types of posts have value IMHO so it really doesn't matter what method you use to trade or whether you trade stocks, etf's , options or futures, key is to post the entry and why.

The big money is usually made with int term and long term plays cause 99% of traders can't successfully trade over the short term on a consistent basis because the mkt whipsaws will tap out most traders due to stop losses or playing to emotional labilities.

Good job on your return cause you can never segue again big winnings!!

I got lucky on RIMM and although I am in on FB at 24 in reality I'm still down modestly cause I got in on FB in premarket shares in secondary mkt pre-ipo so if I ever see mark zuckenberg I will still kick him in the balls....

Word of advice to everyone, there is no short cut or a secret to making money... It's hard work and you need some luck too... Never trust anyone blindly and use others people's info but in conjunction with your own studies cause at the end if the day ., nobody else but will feel your financial pain if a trade goes bad.

GL everyone!

[Hisam135i]

Originally Posted by Vanity

Wow it's been a long time, Sam! You +/- for 2013 so far?

Which bear ETF?

Umm... You can't short TVIX. It's not optionable. TVIX also grossly tracks it's NAV and is probably the worst-designed VIX ETF trading on the market today.

Currently up about 2% been taking things pretty slowly lately and had to recover from a 10% hit I took at the beginning of the year, but it's all good now!

Mind giving more info on the futures contract you traded?

[mact3333]

AAPL bounced as expected....gotta get back into the purple trend line and then it should do well.

[inline6ix]

Just wondering.. What's a good place to get started doing this kind of stuff? I'm very interested in the stock market, but I literally have no idea where to begin.

[PSUSMU]

Originally Posted by LordLev

Just wondering.. What's a good place to get started doing this kind of stuff? I'm very interested in the stock market, but I literally have no idea where to begin.

investopedia.com

[Hisam135i]

Originally Posted by LordLev

Just wondering.. What's a good place to get started doing this kind of stuff? I'm very interested in the stock market, but I literally have no idea where to begin.

Stockcharts.com

Go to chart school and learn technicals

[PSUSMU]

I just got fucked real hard by VELT and RIMM

[nittany]

Thank you LVS for the nice boost in earnings and dividend. Not bad making $3 billion last quarter.

[Inspired]

Originally Posted by PSUSMU

I just got fucked real hard by VELT and RIMM

did you enter RIMM at like $18? All stocks falls right after release. AAPL, GOOG do the same after a big release of a new phone. You should of sold RIMM yesterday or the day before.

[FormerRotor]

Anybody else feeling 3d printing as a long-term buy? What's your call on autodesk?

[Inspired]

Originally Posted by FormerRotor

Anybody else feeling 3d printing as a long-term buy? What's your call on autodesk?

I have been watching DDD since it was in the $30 level. Long term up trend is still intact for DDD. DDD retraced to the 61% mark yesterday. But I would like to see it retrace to the 50% level around $50 level.. There is a gap fill at $53-$55.

[Inspired]

Uptrend very much intact for ADSK. Volume is decreasing. Don't know if it has enough juice right now to break out of $40. I would buy on a pull back at the trendline.

[mact3333]

1. General mkts either at a short term top or very close to it...abit overbought here...mkts nrrd to reset soon.

2. RIMM annoyed me today but I am in this on for long run...the new Blackberry will seal this companies fate either way...I am banking on it doing well over the next yr...today was just noise...but half my profits on RIMM now down the toilet...

3. the dollar looking to decline more...should bode well for metals...GDX still looks abit shaky for now but gold and silver could make a nice intermediate term bottom now...looks enticing.

4. FB still looks decent...sold off AH's but regained most of the losses...mobile ad revenues cont to ramp up hard....always volatile on earnings day.

5. AAPL doing well for me...it was good people were all calling for AAPL to drop another 100 pts...that implied serious fear and poor sentiment, two ingredients to make a bottom...charts also said 440-ish should be a bottom either on ST or IT basis....will still add more AAPL when it goes down again.


Looking to take some long metal positions now.

[Hisam135i]

Originally Posted by mact3333

1. General mkts either at a short term top or very close to it...abit overbought here...mkts nrrd to reset soon.

2. RIMM annoyed me today but I am in this on for long run...the new Blackberry will seal this companies fate either way...I am banking on it doing well over the next yr...today was just noise...but half my profits on RIMM now down the toilet...

3. the dollar looking to decline more...should bode well for metals...GDX still looks abit shaky for now but gold and silver could make a nice intermediate term bottom now...looks enticing.

4. FB still looks decent...sold off AH's but regained most of the losses...mobile ad revenues cont to ramp up hard....always volatile on earnings day.

5. AAPL doing well for me...it was good people were all calling for AAPL to drop another 100 pts...that implied serious fear and poor sentiment, two ingredients to make a bottom...charts also said 440-ish should be a bottom either on ST or IT basis....will still add more AAPL when it goes down again.


Looking to take some long metal positions now.

Any advice on oil and corn futures? Within the next month

[Inspired]

Loving SLV. Friend sent me this.

[PSUSMU]

Originally Posted by Inspired

did you enter RIMM at like $18? All stocks falls right after release. AAPL, GOOG do the same after a big release of a new phone. You should of sold RIMM yesterday or the day before.

No, my cost basis is @ 14.84 now, but I had built a big position. Wish I sold some off.

[mact3333]

Originally Posted by mact3333

Looking for sharp selloff on short term basis...but no longer bearish for IT and LT...we will get some bad news soon(Iran, Euro CDS probs, etc) and this will lead to sharp selloff...but selloff will be fast and sharp and most wont be positioned for it as it will happen fairly quickly.

But after selloff, odds now favor a run at the all time highs in Dow and SPX...dont see a significant selloff until summer...jmho.

I posted above on 2/22/12: We got the summer selloff from May-June 12'...but all time highs just about here now...I am still bullish for 2013...looking for 1650-1700 top at end of this yr or very early 14'...then things going to get real ugly.

Save this post for later.

[R Grubba Balls]

job growth is low, that means businesses are cutting waste. real estate not moving anywhere fast: most people simply can't afford it. helicopter ben is printing, cash is worth less every month. if you have money stocks are the best game in town. i got out of us stocks last month but reinvested in the eu and they're also rising.

mostly niners fans itt? http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/...#axzz2JgZF7EgW

get ready to raise the roof.

[mact3333]

Originally Posted by PSUSMU

No, my cost basis is @ 14.84 now, but I had built a big position. Wish I sold some off.

Bro, hope you kept the faith and held onto RIMM or I should say BBRY now....strong day today.