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      01-08-2013, 08:53 PM   #1167
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How is everyone doing for 2013?

This is my PnL for 013'. It's looking good so far!
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      01-08-2013, 09:00 PM   #1168
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nice!
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      01-09-2013, 01:51 AM   #1169
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AGQ and GDX looking enticing again.......seeing positive divergence.

But overall mkt looking abit worrisome...need to see AAPL do better...VIX hammered over past week and prob ready to start climbing soon which isnt good for the mkts...we shall see.

Also like the way FB and RIMM are trading.
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      01-09-2013, 01:59 AM   #1170
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where have you guys all been?
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      01-09-2013, 02:30 AM   #1171
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mact3333 View Post
AGQ and GDX looking enticing again.......seeing positive divergence.

But overall mkt looking abit worrisome...need to see AAPL do better...VIX hammered over past week and prob ready to start climbing soon which isnt good for the mkts...we shall see.

Also like the way FB and RIMM are trading.
I made my 30% shorting the VIX down at the start of the year. While the VIX is down, the futures are trading at a 100% premium currently to realized vol. There is also insane contango stopping much movement upwards for those intending on going long vol. I think upside is limited in VIX given earnings don't outright disappoint, which I am not expecting them to.

Inspired, where have you been?
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      01-09-2013, 11:13 AM   #1172
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vanity
How is everyone doing for 2013?

This is my PnL for 013'. It's looking good so far!
Nice! I've just been all over the place trading forex
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      01-09-2013, 10:20 PM   #1173
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mact3333 View Post
AGQ and GDX looking enticing again.......seeing positive divergence.

But overall mkt looking abit worrisome...need to see AAPL do better...VIX hammered over past week and prob ready to start climbing soon which isnt good for the mkts...we shall see.

Also like the way FB and RIMM are trading.
I had FB on my watchlist for $29. Saw it on the daily chart but never BOT.

AAPL is very difficult to read right now. It may either dip below $500 or go way above $550. Weekly chart looks good for AAPL. Lower high and lower low. Earning report is 1/24.

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I made my 30% shorting the VIX down at the start of the year. While the VIX is down, the futures are trading at a 100% premium currently to realized vol. There is also insane contango stopping much movement upwards for those intending on going long vol. I think upside is limited in VIX given earnings don't outright disappoint, which I am not expecting them to.

Inspired, where have you been?
Very nice. I am looking at opening a position in bear ETF very soon. It is way oversold right now.

Currently watching X. Looks like a bull flag appearing to form on a daily chart
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      01-09-2013, 10:34 PM   #1174
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one thing I have noticed is this...shorting TVIX seems to be the best way to make money......chart it out for past yr or so...only way you lose is if the mkts crash...shorting leveraged inv. like etf's uses time decay in your favor .
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      01-09-2013, 11:49 PM   #1175
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hisam135i View Post
Nice! I've just been all over the place trading forex
Wow it's been a long time, Sam! You +/- for 2013 so far?

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Originally Posted by Inspired View Post
Very nice. I am looking at opening a position in bear ETF very soon. It is way oversold right now.

Currently watching X. Looks like a bull flag appearing to form on a daily chart
Which bear ETF?

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one thing I have noticed is this...shorting TVIX seems to be the best way to make money......chart it out for past yr or so...only way you lose is if the mkts crash...shorting leveraged inv. like etf's uses time decay in your favor .
Umm... You can't short TVIX. It's not optionable. TVIX also grossly tracks it's NAV and is probably the worst-designed VIX ETF trading on the market today.
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      01-09-2013, 11:56 PM   #1176
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TZA
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      01-10-2013, 12:49 AM   #1177
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TZA
I don't follow small caps, but RUT just made a new all-time high. Are you betting that a breakout will not occur? Just because Bear ETF's hit a 52-low doesn't mean they're a good buy.
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      01-10-2013, 01:15 AM   #1178
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I don't follow small caps, but RUT just made a new all-time high. Are you betting that a breakout will not occur? Just because Bear ETF's hit a 52-low doesn't mean they're a good buy.
I am talking about a buy for short term at these levels. Market action has been pretty weak this week. Weak bounce usually means it is setting up for a small pull back. SPY has been stuck at the 146 level 3x already.
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      01-10-2013, 01:39 AM   #1179
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vanity View Post
Wow it's been a long time, Sam! You +/- for 2013 so far?



Which bear ETF?



Umm... You can't short TVIX. It's not optionable. TVIX also grossly tracks it's NAV and is probably the worst-designed VIX ETF trading on the market today.


My point was to show you how evil the double and triple leveraged etf's are....time decay!

On side note, there is discordance in the mkts...Russell and TRAN breakout without SPX/Dow confirmation...dollar looks like it has bottomed on IT basis and VIX close to doing so.

Perplexing thing is this, dollar looking like it has seen IT low but metals look like they are ready to stop the leakage...hmm.

As my posts have been confidently saying for well over a yr now, I see new all time highs late this yr, but now I see this is a 60:40 chance now...seeing some things I dont like now....we shall see.
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      01-10-2013, 03:56 PM   #1180
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Up +34.54% now.


What are your guys' performance so far for 2013?
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      01-10-2013, 04:15 PM   #1181
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LVS has been very good to me this year so far! Thank goodness for Macau.

Macau = $$$$

http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=50138972n

Last edited by nittany; 01-16-2013 at 01:12 AM.
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      01-10-2013, 04:15 PM   #1182
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mact3333 View Post
My point was to show you how evil the double and triple leveraged etf's are....time decay!
There is no time decay unless you are talking about options. There is however "decay" in the fact that these etf's are designed to track daily movement of the underlying index and are not designed to track long-term movement. Therefore if you hold these things over a period of time while the market moves up/down you will lose out on the decay of the daily repositioning.
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      01-10-2013, 04:36 PM   #1183
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Originally Posted by gatorfast View Post
There is no time decay unless you are talking about options. There is however "decay" in the fact that these etf's are designed to track daily movement of the underlying index and are not designed to track long-term movement. Therefore if you hold these things over a period of time while the market moves up/down you will lose out on the decay of the daily repositioning.
In the case of VIX etfs that long vol, there is time decay because of the term structure in the VIX futures being in contango 70-80% of the time. But should the term structure be in backwardation then on the VIX etfs long vol have no time decay whatsoever. There is some tracking error built in over time, but that wouldn't the main reason for time decay in VIX etfs.

Not sure how other structures are set up
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      01-10-2013, 11:47 PM   #1184
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LVS has been very good to me this year so far! Thank goodness for Macua.
I've held LVS since 09 haha, It's around the same level it was late 2010 and I feel like an idiot for sitting and holding onto it ever since. Oh well at least it started paying dividends this past year.

Hoping for it break to through $60?
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      01-11-2013, 01:11 AM   #1185
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I've held LVS since 09 haha, It's around the same level it was late 2010 and I feel like an idiot for sitting and holding onto it ever since. Oh well at least it started paying dividends this past year.

Hoping for it break to through $60?
Held onto since 09?!? Wow...very good investor, must be nice to have those nice gains. I'm hoping it break to $60 soon, with Macau going nuts, the new high speed railway, all the upgrades from everyone and rumors of REIT, I think it's very possible. If REIT happens, we hit jackpot, it's going to $80+. Love the volume these days too.

Last month only with the $2.75 per share dividend along with the normal .25 per share dividend was a nice Christmas bonus for us!

Last edited by nittany; 01-16-2013 at 01:12 AM.
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      01-11-2013, 01:56 AM   #1186
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Held onto since 09?!? Wow...very good investor, must be nice to have those nice gains. I'm hoping it break to $60 soon, with Macua going nuts, the new high speed railway, all the upgrades from everyone and rumors of REIT, I think it's very possible. If REIT happens, we hit jackpot, it's going to $80+. Love the volume these days too.

Last month only with the $2.75 per share dividend along with the normal .25 per share dividend was a nice Christmas bonus for us!

Not a very good investor actually LOL, it was around the $52 mark around mid-late 2010 and it's still around there right now haha, at the time I had purchased it on margin as well, so a risky move, I just got lucky I guess.

I owned MGM around that time as well, but I got rid of it a while back since I got way too busy to properly monitor my own portfolio. I took a 20% (or something like that) dump in my portfolio value from April-November this past year so just now I've become a bit more active in monitoring things.

REIT would be jackpot for sure haha, this time I'd take my earnings instead of being greedy and holding out too long.

Anybody in Middleby Corp? Made decent profits off of it in terms of %, but I only hold a small amount in it. It seems like the there's potential for plenty of more upside.
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      01-11-2013, 04:19 PM   #1187
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mact3333 View Post
AGQ and GDX looking enticing again.......seeing positive divergence.

But overall mkt looking abit worrisome...need to see AAPL do better...VIX hammered over past week and prob ready to start climbing soon which isnt good for the mkts...we shall see.

Also like the way FB and RIMM are trading.


FB and RIMM continue to make me happy.......esp RIMM today.

But to get brownie pts on this thread you have to post real time trades and prices with time stamps....

Metals made me nervous yesterday despite the big gains as there was huge SOS seen so I left it alone...gave back most of it today.
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      01-11-2013, 04:22 PM   #1188
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What the hell happened to coal stocks? Huge day for BBY and RIMM.
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