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      11-18-2012, 11:52 AM   #1
Coltgus
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What will my M3 be worth in 3 years ?

The residual on my lease is $45,040. So with tax it would cost $47,792 to buy it in 3 years. I could buy it now for $44,065 out the door because I did a 1 pay lease. If the car was worth considerably less than the residual at the end of the lease I would be better off waiting so I need guesses from you people who've had experience. The new M4 will be out by then. My M3 is Jet black, black leather, carbon black trim, ZCP, ZPP, DCT, Apps, and Sat. Msrp was $72,645. I only drive about 5k a year. Lease ends 10/31/15. TIA.
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      11-18-2012, 12:05 PM   #2
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      11-18-2012, 01:30 PM   #3
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^ lolol I was thinking the EXACT same thing!
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      11-18-2012, 01:53 PM   #4
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You know I have a feeling the e9xm3 are going to be strong on the resale end when productions stops. I saw it with the e46m3 as well as we waited for the e9xm to come out. A lot of it will come down to A. The release date of the new M3/M4 and also how much the new M's will be.

Will the car go up in value no, but it will hold strong value I feel once productions ends.
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      11-18-2012, 02:03 PM   #5
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Residual sounds accurate. Hard to say for sure though.
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      11-18-2012, 05:18 PM   #6
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Depends on many things my friend .... One thing is for sure or shall we say two ...

1) keep it a short time loose a lot

2) keep it for a long time loose less
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      11-18-2012, 05:31 PM   #7
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^ lolol I was thinking the EXACT same thing!
+1 totally beat me to it
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      11-18-2012, 05:33 PM   #8
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It's a good question, and since BMW has the most to lose if the Residuals are off, I'd guess yours will be worth a little more than the residual you cited since you put much less mileage on than allowed. I'm in the same boat, so I'm interested as well.

As an aside, I'm not familiar with the term "1 pay lease." Does that mean you paid your entire lease payment up front, as a down payment? If so, that may have been an extremely poor decision based on what I know about leases and could factor largely into your early buyout decision. What I have been told is that if a leased car gets totaled, your insurance goes to the leasing company and leaves you with NOTHING. No equity what so ever. There is hopefully a very low probability of totaling a car, but when you consider the possible loss, still not a good Net Present Value on that financial decision.
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      11-18-2012, 05:36 PM   #9
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+1 totally beat me to it
+1, totally beat Khrishna, beating JTO24, beating you, beating me!
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      11-18-2012, 05:43 PM   #10
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I think in 2/3 years you're going to see a lot of E9x M3's on the market. Mainly because of couple of factors, current leases ending and a lot of existing owners trading up for new M3/M4's.

I think the sweet spot is the time between end of production of current E92's (likely July 2013) & prior to the next gen M3/M4 hitting dealer showrooms. Once the next-gen M's hit the market you're going to see a lot of existing owners trading up which will mean a large supply of E9x's on used car lots.

It all comes down to supply & demand.
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      11-18-2012, 06:46 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by M Pulse View Post
I think in 2/3 years you're going to see a lot of E9x M3's on the market. Mainly because of couple of factors, current leases ending and a lot of existing owners trading up for new M3/M4's.

I think the sweet spot is the time between end of production of current E92's (likely July 2013) & prior to the next gen M3/M4 hitting dealer showrooms. Once the next-gen M's hit the market you're going to see a lot of existing owners trading up which will mean a large supply of E9x's on used car lots.

It all comes down to supply & demand.
Sorry, I cannot agree with your line of thinking exactly. I rather think that most of us that now own a late model ///M3 will keep the car for it will be the last true ///M3 having the V8 under the hood. You might be quite right for those that lease the car and then at the end of the lease get another car. Just saying.

Perhaps a Poll on the subject may tell the tale
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      11-18-2012, 06:56 PM   #12
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random question regarding this...

lets say your 15 months into your lease and you decide you want to buy it out.. how do you get a calculated value of what you would pay to buy it out then versus finishing the lease and buying it out??
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      11-18-2012, 09:03 PM   #13
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Rest of lease payments + residual + tax (this part varies by state)
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      11-18-2012, 09:13 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fuzzybam View Post
Rest of lease payments + residual + tax (this part varies by state)
The depreciation portion of the remaining lease payments + residual + tax.

You have to strip out the interest portion of your payment.
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      11-18-2012, 09:27 PM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 6spdg37s View Post
random question regarding this...

lets say your 15 months into your lease and you decide you want to buy it out.. how do you get a calculated value of what you would pay to buy it out then versus finishing the lease and buying it out??
Instead of trying to calculate it, you should be able to obtain a payoff amount. If financed through BMWFS, you can get this online through the My BMW portal.
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      11-18-2012, 09:29 PM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jdemetry View Post
It's a good question, and since BMW has the most to lose if the Residuals are off, I'd guess yours will be worth a little more than the residual you cited since you put much less mileage on than allowed. I'm in the same boat, so I'm interested as well.

As an aside, I'm not familiar with the term "1 pay lease." Does that mean you paid your entire lease payment up front, as a down payment? If so, that may have been an extremely poor decision based on what I know about leases and could factor largely into your early buyout decision. What I have been told is that if a leased car gets totaled, your insurance goes to the leasing company and leaves you with NOTHING. No equity what so ever. There is hopefully a very low probability of totaling a car, but when you consider the possible loss, still not a good Net Present Value on that financial decision.
A 1 pay lease is like a regular lease except you make all the lease payments at inception, the amount of each payment is calculated using a reduced money factor. BMWFS puts the money in an account for you and subtracts each lease payment from that account when due. So if the car was totaled you would get that money back.
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      11-18-2012, 09:35 PM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 6spdg37s View Post
random question regarding this...

lets say your 15 months into your lease and you decide you want to buy it out.. how do you get a calculated value of what you would pay to buy it out then versus finishing the lease and buying it out??
As others have said it is approximately the (cap cost) minus (the number of payments you have made times the depreciation amount of the lease payment) plus the residual plus tax. In any case you can just logon to bmwusa.com and get a quote at any time.
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      11-18-2012, 09:48 PM   #18
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Look at the value of E60 M5s with that sweet S85. Used prices plummeted when the faster F10 M5 came out. No reason to think the E9x Ms will fair any better.
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      11-18-2012, 09:51 PM   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TTO898 View Post
Instead of trying to calculate it, you should be able to obtain a payoff amount. If financed through BMWFS, you can get this online through the My BMW portal.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Coltgus View Post
As others have said it is approximately the (cap cost) minus (the number of payments you have made times the depreciation amount of the lease payment) plus the residual plus tax. In any case you can just logon to bmwusa.com and get a quote at any time.
yeah Im gonna check it out once the car comes in and the lease starts..

I am just curious, I only chose to lease the car because I have been changing up cars pretty often and I hate having to deal with trying to sell it privately or get a hit from a dealer trade.. but if i love the car mid lease it may be worth just writing a check
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      11-18-2012, 10:06 PM   #20
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Look at the value of E60 M5s with that sweet S85. Used prices plummeted when the faster F10 M5 came out. No reason to think the E9x Ms will fair any better.
I think this had a lot to do with awful cost of ownership of these cars..at least that's why I didn't buy one. My main concerns were out of warranty repair costs, crazy costs of extended warranty for them, and horrendous gas mileage (I expected 12-13 mpg instead of ~17mpg w/ m3). I would have probably got either the older gen m6/m5 otherwise...I'm assuming so would have others, accounting for lower resale values.

e9x m3's on the other hand have somewhat more reasonable extended warranty costs (even for bmw warranties), better mileage (I'm getting very tolerable ~17+ mpg, even w/ lots of city driving), and I sure hope repairs won't be too bad.
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      11-18-2012, 10:11 PM   #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by M3RD View Post
Sorry, I cannot agree with your line of thinking exactly. I rather think that most of us that now own a late model ///M3 will keep the car for it will be the last true ///M3 having the V8 under the hood. You might be quite right for those that lease the car and then at the end of the lease get another car. Just saying.

Perhaps a Poll on the subject may tell the tale
You just pretty much repeated exactly what I said, so what exactly don't you agree with??

I bet you majority of existing E9x M owners will be lined up at their respective dealerships when the next-gen M comes out.
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      11-18-2012, 10:15 PM   #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by skins333 View Post
I think this had a lot to do with awful cost of ownership of these cars..at least that's why I didn't buy one. My main concerns were out of warranty repair costs, crazy costs of extended warranty for them, and horrendous gas mileage (I expected 12-13 mpg instead of ~17mpg w/ m3). I would have probably got either the older gen m6/m5 otherwise...I'm assuming so would have others, accounting for lower resale values.

e9x m3's on the other hand have somewhat more reasonable extended warranty costs (even for bmw warranties), better mileage (I'm getting very tolerable ~17+ mpg, even w/ lots of city driving), and I sure hope repairs won't be too bad.
I think the weak mpg will ultimately hurt E9x resale value. I was never able to get more than 15mpg, myself. Hard to predict repair costs, but anytime you're talking about a $60-70k car, the law of averages are just against you.
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