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11-04-2012, 12:54 AM | #1 |
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Im guessing:
Obama 290 vs Romney 248 Let's please keep this as just predicting the scores Not a bashing of either candidate
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11-04-2012, 09:56 AM | #2 |
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Your forecast is entirely reasonable. As someone who supports the current system and would never support a popular vote, I'm afraid your totals may be very close. To complicate matters though, I believe in the popular vote, it will be Romney by at least 5 points. I remain hopeful but I suspect the electoral college vote will go against my guy. Too bad for him, too bad for us.
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11-04-2012, 02:05 PM | #4 | |
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Last edited by alms211; 11-04-2012 at 02:15 PM. |
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11-04-2012, 05:10 PM | #5 |
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I don't believe that it will be decided by the electoral college. I think that it will be like 2000 and end up in the Supreme Court.
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11-04-2012, 07:47 PM | #7 |
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Electoral college:
Obama 306 Romney 231 Popular vote: Obama 50.1 Romney 48.9
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11-04-2012, 08:15 PM | #8 | |
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Florida basically decided the election I think there will be enough states in the Obamas campy this time, that it won't make sense to file lawsuits in multiple states
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11-04-2012, 08:18 PM | #9 | |
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Like in Gores case I think ideally, It would be a mix of both systems Electoral college first , unless the popular vote is very close That you need some sort of tie breaker shoot out if you will ![]()
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11-04-2012, 10:06 PM | #10 |
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I'm going with the University of Colorado - Boulder scientists that have correctly forecasted the winner of every Presidential Election since 1980 (just updated today):
Romney 330 Obama 208 That should be landslide territory. With the early voting returns from battleground states coming in favorable to Romney, much lower for Obama's than his 2008 run, and Republicans traditional advantage on voting day - it's starting to look really good.
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11-04-2012, 10:14 PM | #11 | |
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Their prediction is pretty much Romney winning almost all the swing states That goes against pretty much all the polls I've seen Time will tell I guess I just hope it's not another anti climatic ending like 2000 When we all went to bed still clueless on who the next president was
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11-04-2012, 10:35 PM | #12 | |
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How Carter Beat Reagan You'll see how eerily close to this year election 1980 actually is. This doesn't equate Romney to Reagan, but Obama is a lot closer to Carter on the position of the economy and foreign policy than most folks care to admit.
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11-05-2012, 12:19 AM | #13 | |
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Thing is It's not just the "bleeding heart liberal media" that has Obama ahead in some of the swing states, it's the good old "take America back" right wing conservative polls as well I'm not a fan of looking at individual polls I like the polls on real clear politics, because it shows ALL the polls, whether democrat, republican, or neutral, as well as the average of all those If you look at the average, you're getting a pretty unbiased view I'm expecting Romney to get virginia, and Florida And i' expecting obama to get Ohio, and Wisconsin If he gets those, and keeps Pennsylvania, all he needs is one more state Where Romney needs to win almost all the swing states. I still find it shocking that I can't read unbiased news in this country
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11-05-2012, 12:34 AM | #14 |
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Electoral Projections from Final Polls
Dave Wissing notes that if final polls from The Economist/YouGov are correct, President Obama will win 303 electoral votes. The final Reuters/Ipsos polls suggest Obama will win 294 electoral votes. The final Public Policy Polling surveys point to an Obama landslide of 332 electoral votes. |
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11-05-2012, 09:49 AM | #16 |
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Obama 307
Rmoney 230
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11-05-2012, 10:41 AM | #17 |
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Polls are to be taken with a big grain of salt...
I have never been polled or surveyed on who I may vote for. I casted my early vote Saturday, so right there we have at least two people (my girlfriend and I are in the same boat) that were obviously not included in the "polling numbers" but casted votes already. I'm sure there are a lot of others in the same situation.
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11-05-2012, 12:38 PM | #18 | |
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![]() it means you ask enough people, that you have small snapshot of the population my only remark is if polls were so incorrect, if we take the University of Colorado - Boulder prediction, why would news channels/newspapers spend millions doing them? they are not 100% correct, but they are close to reality. especiallly if you average many polls. a few mistakes here and there will be corrected by a a large enough sample, which you get when you average 5 or 6 polls for example just like if i had asked you and your wife, i would have predicted a romney victory but if i had asked you, your GF, and 20 other people, i might be closer to reality
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11-05-2012, 12:47 PM | #19 | |
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I have a feeling they don't really poll that many people, and the "sample" they take is very small indeed. As far as who is going to win, only actual votes count, and we won't know the answer until tomorrow.
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11-05-2012, 01:11 PM | #20 | |
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if there are 100 people and each sample questions 8 people after you've done 5 or 6 polls, (assuming you're not asking the same 8 people everytime) you would have an idea of almost half the population. so one poll is more of a guestimate 5 or more polls is a clearer picture of the truth
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11-05-2012, 02:58 PM | #21 | |
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I'll wait until tomorrow to see what happens ![]()
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11-05-2012, 03:04 PM | #22 | |
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![]() i know i'd hate to be either of the 2 candidates today! i am sure neither candidate will get any sleep tonight may the best man win
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