Stock market Thread II--Technical Analysis

[Hisam135i]

This is not going to end well, I wonder if Mact is right and we're going to rally until vix hits $10... Now that would be something to see

[Vanity]

I went long UVXY when spot vix hit 14. We have a gap to fill at 17.57. What it does after that is anyone's guess.

[stylinexpat]

I have always liked and loved Silver. Silver looks poised for another run. I am buying SLV for this run and will be loading up on real Silver if QE3 passes. $40-60 Silver if QE3 passes

[mact3333]

Originally Posted by mact3333

Stay bullish guys...dont let the European disasters distract you...this mkt will grind out new highs soon enough...we will climb a wall of worry once again.

Guys, do yourselves a big favor...plot 1 and 2 year chart with SPX, then overlay the chart with the VIX...when VIX gets below 15(think int term top) you unwind your longs and start to accumulate some shorts...when VIX spikes above 25-ish you start to re-accumulate longs...when bull mkt finally peaks I believe the VIX will be near 10 level(think long term top)...if it ever reaches this level, you better run from your long positions as the bull is likely over.

The answer is likely in the charts!

Hope all is well everyone...I last posted on here 3 months ago...hope you agreed with me...we will be be making new highs...europe was a just a distraction...metals showed the QE3 move a full month before it actually happened.

Still fully loaded with AGQ, GDX.

When the VIX gets crushed towards 10 level(not below 15 as i originally said as adjustments have to be made for QE3) and TVIX below a buck, then we are getting close to the final top...dont think "top" until well into next yr(second half most likely)...this bull run will get tired sometime next yr...then most of the easy money will be made on the short side.

Metals still have an explosive move to the upside , then it will get crushed like all bubbles eventually do.

I will be bullish until SPX takes out 1600, then I become slightly cautious...wouldnt surprise me if we touch 1600-1700 before implosion happens

[mact3333]

Originally Posted by stylinexpat

I have always liked and loved Silver. Silver looks poised for another run. I am buying SLV for this run and will be loading up on real Silver if QE3 passes. $40-60 Silver if QE3 passes

Hope you traded on your own advice...I got into gold and silver right about when you posted that.

[mact3333]

I will be cautious once we hit 1600 SPX...wouldnt surprise me if we touch 1600-1700 before the final top next yr...when the top hits, it will become very volatile again...the final push will have to lead by the ones who have stayed out of the mkt, when avg Joe comes in, time to get out!

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by mact3333

Hope all is well everyone...I last posted on here 3 months ago...hope you agreed with me...we will be be making new highs...europe was a just a distraction...metals showed the QE3 move a full month before it actually happened.

Still fully loaded with AGQ, GDX.

When the VIX gets crushed towards 10 level(not below 15 as i originally said as adjustments have to be made for QE3) and TVIX below a buck, then we are getting close to the final top...dont think "top" until well into next yr(second half most likely)...this bull run will get tired sometime next yr...then most of the easy money will be made on the short side.

Metals still have an explosive move to the upside , then it will get crushed like all bubbles eventually do.

I will be bullish until SPX takes out 1600, then I become slightly cautious...wouldnt surprise me if we touch 1600-1700 before implosion happens

Mact, if you ever become interested in trading volatility, take a look at XIV's performance since LTRO back in Nov. 2011. Over 200%. Not bad to add that gain alongside your metals

And considering unlimited Bond buying, QE3, and BOJ QE, I'm sure XIV has another 1-200% in it left till implosion.

[stylinexpat]

Originally Posted by mact3333

Hope you traded on your own advice...I got into gold and silver right about when you posted that.

Then you should be doing well because I posted this a while back ago as well Silver is good to buy on all dips and pullbacks.

[stylinexpat]

Been bouncing back on all dips. S,SLV,MCP and BAC have been doing pretty well when bought after pullbacks. I still see good time up ahead for Silver.

I'm thinking we see $40-50 within 6 months. Let's see how this plays out.

[Hisam135i]

Originally Posted by mact3333

I will be cautious once we hit 1600 SPX...wouldnt surprise me if we touch 1600-1700 before the final top next yr...when the top hits, it will become very volatile again...the final push will have to lead by the ones who have stayed out of the mkt, when avg Joe comes in, time to get out!

Originally Posted by Vanity

Mact, if you ever become interested in trading volatility, take a look at XIV's performance since LTRO back in Nov. 2011. Over 200%. Not bad to add that gain alongside your metals

And considering unlimited Bond buying, QE3, and BOJ QE, I'm sure XIV has another 1-200% in it left till implosion.

Originally Posted by stylinexpat

Been bouncing back on all dips. S,SLV,MCP and BAC have been doing pretty well when bought after pullbacks. I still see good time up ahead for Silver.

I'm thinking we see $40-50 within 6 months. Let's see how this plays out.

Dare i bring this back? Hows everyone doing

[stylinexpat]

Originally Posted by Hisam135i

Dare i bring this back? Hows everyone doing

MCP seems screwed for now. I got out of that one before it dropped. Silver and Gold saw a pullback recently as commodities and oil prices dropped. I am still bullish on Silver and SLV. On the dips I still buy and add Silver.

I expect a correction in the near future. Now is not the time to buy stocks and go long. We are near top and could crash or see a very good correction at any time now. With QE3 in tact though they could buy at any time and lift share prices and Indexes. Reality though is the economy in the US and Asia is quite bad as retail sales are bad in Asia and exports are very weak at this time. This will reflect on earnings big time and when earnings are bad stocks will correct.

[roastbeef]

hi guys, i know i'm not in here a lot, but i'm looking to get into some small scale stuff. i just want to start with a couple grand and get my feet wet.

i'm thinking of using scottrade, any other suggestions? or low dollar stocks to pickup?

[Inspired]

Originally Posted by stylinexpat

MCP seems screwed for now. I got out of that one before it dropped. Silver and Gold saw a pullback recently as commodities and oil prices dropped. I am still bullish on Silver and SLV. On the dips I still buy and add Silver.

I expect a correction in the near future. Now is not the time to buy stocks and go long. We are near top and could crash or see a very good correction at any time now. With QE3 in tact though they could buy at any time and lift share prices and Indexes. Reality though is the economy in the US and Asia is quite bad as retail sales are bad in Asia and exports are very weak at this time. This will reflect on earnings big time and when earnings are bad stocks will correct.

Gold and silver should be stable with the reelect of Obama. I'm long on SLV and GLD. Picked up SLV at $30 last week.

[stylinexpat]

Originally Posted by Inspired

Gold and silver should be stable with the reelect of Obama. I'm long on SLV and GLD. Picked up SLV at $30 last week.

Good luck. You should be good with that one. SLV may dip below 30 in the near term but I reckon it should head north after. I think the US wants oil prices to come down and when oil prices come down Silver and Gold should also come down as well as commodities move together at times.

[Dr. G]

I've taken a pretty solid beating from about April until now. Pretty much because I had no time to longer manage my account and I kind of let things sit how they are hoping for the best.

Horrible decision! I ended up taking a huge hit and am now trying to decide whether I take my losses and pull out or whether I make a game plan and get back on top of things.

[Inspired]

This thread is dead...where are all the active traders at?

Originally Posted by stylinexpat

Good luck. You should be good with that one. SLV may dip below 30 in the near term but I reckon it should head north after. I think the US wants oil prices to come down and when oil prices come down Silver and Gold should also come down as well as commodities move together at times.

I see a short term target of $32 and long term of $34. Wish I picked up more SLV at $30.

Originally Posted by Dr. G

I've taken a pretty solid beating from about April until now. Pretty much because I had no time to longer manage my account and I kind of let things sit how they are hoping for the best.

Horrible decision! I ended up taking a huge hit and am now trying to decide whether I take my losses and pull out or whether I make a game plan and get back on top of things.

I would hold it and see how the market responds. It has already been down 7% since Obama has been reelected. The question is where is the bottom and when it will bounce back?

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by Dr. G

I've taken a pretty solid beating from about April until now. Pretty much because I had no time to longer manage my account and I kind of let things sit how they are hoping for the best.

Horrible decision! I ended up taking a huge hit and am now trying to decide whether I take my losses and pull out or whether I make a game plan and get back on top of things.

What have you been in since April and how bad is the damage percentage-wise?

[Dr. G]

Originally Posted by Vanity

What have you been in since April and how bad is the damage percentage-wise?

Mid-April to now I'm down 29.42%
I was at a high point around then so some loss of profits is to be expected and I kind of just sat through things thinking when I get a chance to get back into the markets I'll even things out.

What sucks is in the past month I'm down 15-18%, so I think it's time to take action and not let my account sit around.

I need to either withdraw and re-invest when I have more time or I need to start watching the markets again. The problem is that I don't have enough time to properly keep track of things and make informed decisions and I usually never enter a trade unless I'm very confident.

I preferred the buy and sit tight for a year type of trades since I've been too busy and I guess my usual picks are no longer the right picks. Apple taking a nose-dive and being one of my larger holdings doesn't help my situation either haha.

PS: I'm not a pro/skilled trader by any means

[Inspired]

Originally Posted by Dr. G

Mid-April to now I'm down 29.42%
I was at a high point around then so some loss of profits is to be expected and I kind of just sat through things thinking when I get a chance to get back into the markets I'll even things out.

What sucks is in the past month I'm down 15-18%, so I think it's time to take action and not let my account sit around.

I need to either withdraw and re-invest when I have more time or I need to start watching the markets again. The problem is that I don't have enough time to properly keep track of things and make informed decisions and I usually never enter a trade unless I'm very confident.

I preferred the buy and sit tight for a year type of trades since I've been too busy and I guess my usual picks are no longer the right picks. Apple taking a nose-dive and being one of my larger holdings doesn't help my situation either haha.

PS: I'm not a pro/skilled trader by any means

Apple took a huge hit. From $700 to low $500. They just hit 6 month low today. It's really a tough call. Some analysts are saying that AAPL will bounce back primarily because a uptrend is coming from higher high and higher lows. Other think otherwise.

Among the prominent bears is Doubleline Capital CEO Jeff Gundlach, who predicted on Thursday that Apple stock would continue all the way down to $425. He said that’s about where AAPL was when it started its dramatic climb in January, and he expects it to return to those levels.

Gundlach is down on Apple because he thinks the Cupertino, CA-based company’s new products are no longer cutting edge.

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by Dr. G

Mid-April to now I'm down 29.42%
I was at a high point around then so some loss of profits is to be expected and I kind of just sat through things thinking when I get a chance to get back into the markets I'll even things out.

What sucks is in the past month I'm down 15-18%, so I think it's time to take action and not let my account sit around.

I need to either withdraw and re-invest when I have more time or I need to start watching the markets again. The problem is that I don't have enough time to properly keep track of things and make informed decisions and I usually never enter a trade unless I'm very confident.

I preferred the buy and sit tight for a year type of trades since I've been too busy and I guess my usual picks are no longer the right picks. Apple taking a nose-dive and being one of my larger holdings doesn't help my situation either haha.

PS: I'm not a pro/skilled trader by any means

When you're up on a trade, especially buy-and-hold investments, put a stop loss somewhere in your profits where you'd be more than happy to sell and forget there was even anymore where that came from. Ex. If you had purchased AAPL at 400 and rode it to 700, a stop loss at 650 quite honestly offsets whatever loss you take on the last $50. Just forget about it.

As for the markets, I think we might be in to take out 1325 or rebound sharply since we are so oversold, I just dont know the order. I am fairly positive this is the start of something nasty though. My advice for AAPL is liquidate 50% if you believe it might drop more, allowing you to average down later if it does. And if it doesn't, you still have 50% skin in the game to average in with. Maybe look into dividend stocks. At least if you took a -30% hit, it'd hurt less with a 7% dividend.



Aside from that, where are my traders at? Long time. Today I had a great run. it was a down day so VXX returned +0.89%. I managed to micro-trade that gain into a +3.51% day. Not bad! 4x outperformed the underlying vehicle. Not sure what's gonna happen these days so I'm always position neutral into the close. It allows me to not stay up at night or give a damn what the futures are gonna do. Working wonders on my sleep cycle!

[ejheverest]

I went short a little early(7/24/12) been moving from market to bond funds from early summer to current. 3 weeks ago finally went 100% bonds. Plan on entering market next year unless SP500/president can prove me otherwise.

Good time to pay down principal's on mortgage and dream about a 330D touring X drive, 6 spd manual...

I'm very fortunate to have my employer match 6% on my Roth401k so even when I'm out of the market, there is still a return I'm getting.

[Hisam135i]

Originally Posted by Vanity

When you're up on a trade, especially buy-and-hold investments, put a stop loss somewhere in your profits where you'd be more than happy to sell and forget there was even anymore where that came from. Ex. If you had purchased AAPL at 400 and rode it to 700, a stop loss at 650 quite honestly offsets whatever loss you take on the last $50. Just forget about it.

As for the markets, I think we might be in to take out 1325 or rebound sharply since we are so oversold, I just dont know the order. I am fairly positive this is the start of something nasty though. My advice for AAPL is liquidate 50% if you believe it might drop more, allowing you to average down later if it does. And if it doesn't, you still have 50% skin in the game to average in with. Maybe look into dividend stocks. At least if you took a -30% hit, it'd hurt less with a 7% dividend.



Aside from that, where are my traders at? Long time. Today I had a great run. it was a down day so VXX returned +0.89%. I managed to micro-trade that gain into a +3.51% day. Not bad! 4x outperformed the underlying vehicle. Not sure what's gonna happen these days so I'm always position neutral into the close. It allows me to not stay up at night or give a damn what the futures are gonna do. Working wonders on my sleep cycle!

Welcome back sir, I also have been taking the day trader route. Have been really busy with my school work though have been out of trading since august. Recently picked up again a day or so right after the election. I am back to my same old day trading options strategy and couldnt be happier with it made 5% today morning off a small investment.. Day trading is definitely to the way to go in this market, its all over the place. But it has been maintaining a relatively stable cycle where from opening until around 7-7:30am PST we are up, than down until 8:30-9 and than slowly pick back up.

besides trading how's everyone been!