Stock market Thread II--Technical Analysis

[EvosM3]

Whoa, holy shit BAC. It's up almost 9%!!!!!

[Hisam135i]

Originally Posted by EvosM3

Whoa, holy shit BAC. It's up almost 9%!!!!!

yup i ended up buying more puts up top and now in the green

[r0wr]

Originally Posted by r0wr

Vanity, $NYMO speaks volumes and is one indicator that cannot be excluded. I say retrace to 1300 before we fall

Rebound as I said.. $NYMO was too weak. Hit my target of 1300. I personally think we squeeze a little bit more before we drop but what do I know.. I'm still holding all my original positions taking fat losses

[Vanity]

Intraday reversal and US treasury moves this week are confirming a possible ST bottom. The rebound has ran into 1310 downtrend resistance and we will need to hope for a good, and I mean GOOD, meeting with Bernanke tomorrow. Today's trading Volume is on thin ice, less than what we were seeing last Friday in the sell off. Either dead cat bounce or a ST rally that does (it's possible) have the potential to make a new high before a crash.

I added some more small positions back into shorts. Will be watching tomorrow for clues as to whether a long should be initiated.

[ejheverest]

I'll be staying on the sidelines until, we see a bit more of a correction. When SP500 dips down to 1150-1200, I'll consider going long.

[r0wr]

Originally Posted by Vanity

Intraday reversal and US treasury moves this week are confirming a possible ST bottom. The rebound has ran into 1310 downtrend resistance and we will need to hope for a good, and I mean GOOD, meeting with Bernanke tomorrow. Today's trading Volume is on thin ice, less than what we were seeing last Friday in the sell off. Either dead cat bounce or a ST rally that does (it's possible) have the potential to make a new high before a crash.

I added some more small positions back into shorts. Will be watching tomorrow for clues as to whether a long should be initiated.

I definitely think that we are on the 1st leg of the 2 legs going up. There's no question about it in my mind. We should be expecting a higher high ahead. Rally target could be around 1340 but I still think we have 50% chance of SPX making a lower low.

[Hisam135i]

those puts made me a pretty penny

[Vanity]

Full Short now. Averaged myself down by -50% on those shorts, very nice rally for me

[EvosM3]

Hmm, not much selling AH. Are you sure we're going to go down tomorrow? If anything, I would think we sell off a bit towards EOD tomorrow but that's about it.

[Hisam135i]

Originally Posted by EvosM3

Hmm, not much selling AH. Are you sure we're going to go down tomorrow? If anything, I would think we sell off a bit towards EOD tomorrow but that's about it.

I'm not taking any chances for the most part and playing it on a day to day basis and analyzing on a day in day out basis. Has been working quite nicely

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by EvosM3

Hmm, not much selling AH. Are you sure we're going to go down tomorrow? If anything, I would think we sell off a bit towards EOD tomorrow but that's about it.

I posted before that the intraday reversal on Monday was going to hit an area of 1290-1342, and today we got as high as 1328 and reversed to 1315. I'm good from these levels. Locked in my profits from shorting down to Monday, sold out, and then averaged down by -50%, so another move to 1340 (should it happen) doesn't bother me. However, I'm not going to get greedy and milk these rallies. That will put me in trouble eventually.

And good job to everyone day trading this week. Good strategy . From Monday till today, TNA returned 20% in 3 days, very nice buffer.

Originally Posted by r0wr

I definitely think that we are on the 1st leg of the 2 legs going up. There's no question about it in my mind. We should be expecting a higher high ahead. Rally target could be around 1340 but I still think we have 50% chance of SPX making a lower low.

What are your thoughts of the first leg having ended, or near ended, and the markets making another large leg down before a large counter-rally follows suit (2nd leg up), then the big fireworks? The reset this week and prop-up has delayed the crash imo.

[Vanity]

Just to give you guys an idea of what the global technical picture looks like since the respective 2012 tops for each of the following markets:

China -20%
Japan -15%
Germany -22%
France -21%
UK -14%
Brazil -28%
Italy -29%
Canada -15%
India -24%
Russia -31%
Spain -37%

Only Japan, UK, Canada, and the American markets have not been dragged into a bear-market yet. However, the rest of the world has already begun a global bear-market, as highlighted by the red and with losses crossing -20%. This signals further losses to come.

[Hisam135i]

I definitely think we are headed lower from here, all technical signs indicate a reversal from these few days of re-consolidation. Parabolic SAR (indicated trend reversal), Stochastic and MACD are all pointing down on the hourly chart. Everyone did not get what they wanted to here today from helicopter benny . I am sure you all saw what he had to say, so wont bother summarizing that on to the chart!



happy trading

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by Hisam135i

I definitely think we are headed lower from here, all technical signs indicate a reversal from these few days of re-consolidation. Parabolic SAR (indicated trend reversal), Stochastic and MACD are all pointing down on the hourly chart. Everyone did not get what they wanted to here today from helicopter benny . I am sure you all saw what he had to say, so wont bother summarizing that on to the chart!

Attachment 703783

happy trading

You making more money than your professors yet?
Glad I went full short again, Japan's index is down -2% and Aus is down -1% too. After a powerful 60 handle rally on the SPX, everything is reset for another leg down. I'm thinking in the vicinity of a 50-100 sell off on the SPX. ST target anywhere from 1215-1265 from our current 1315.

Like I said before, if crash doesn't happen then we are going to rally up, and that's going to cause a much larger crash. The main body isn't even here yet because of this prop-up this week. But you can't hold back a Mama Bear.

[r0wr]

Originally Posted by Vanity

What are your thoughts of the first leg having ended, or near ended, and the markets making another large leg down before a large counter-rally follows suit (2nd leg up), then the big fireworks? The reset this week and prop-up has delayed the crash imo.

The pull back today confirmed my 2 leg theory and I believe that the first up leg is now over. we may see further pull backs tomorrow but I personally believe there will be another leg up. Realize that I personally think there will be two legs up but there is definitely a possibility of a third leg up just as well. I just think that it's going to be a short term rebound and eventually we will continue back downwards. In terms of the bigger picture, I still think we will break the 06/04 lows, which in my book implies that the intermediate-term is still short.

[Hisam135i]

Originally Posted by Vanity

You making more money than your professors yet?
Glad I went full short again, Japan's index is down -2% and Aus is down -1% too. After a powerful 60 handle rally on the SPX, everything is reset for another leg down. I'm thinking in the vicinity of a 50-100 sell off on the SPX. ST target anywhere from 1215-1265 from our current 1315.

Like I said before, if crash doesn't happen then we are going to rally up, and that's going to cause a much larger crash. The main body isn't even here yet because of this prop-up this week. But you can't hold back a Mama Bear.

I think I passed them up a while ago hahahaha
She will get here eventually slowly but surely

Originally Posted by r0wr

The pull back today confirmed my 2 leg theory and I believe that the first up leg is now over. we may see further pull backs tomorrow but I personally believe there will be another leg up. Realize that I personally think there will be two legs up but there is definitely a possibility of a third leg up just as well. I just think that it's going to be a short term rebound and eventually we will continue back downwards. In terms of the bigger picture, I still think we will break the 06/04 lows, which in my book implies that the intermediate-term is still short.

And this is the reason I believe slowly! I agree if there is going to be a large fall we will have a few days of re-consolidating in between (as we saw this week). Even if you pull up last years charts before the large drop we had Two legs up before the final fall (as you can see in the ellipse below)


PS: sorry for the shitty quality of the charts at my gfs house using her computer and it sucks -_-

[r0wr]

There is clearly a reversal bar today formed on the SPY daily chart just as well. I still think there's another leg up though. We've had 5 straight red Fridays just as well.

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by r0wr

There is clearly a reversal bar today formed on the SPY daily chart just as well. I still think there's another leg up though. We've had 5 straight red Fridays just as well.

My current take is this rebound ended today after the intra-reversal. Estimating the SPX to fall from 1315 down to 1265-1215 region, then another leg up that would take us past 1340, with a target of 1340-1400 (possibly). All relative and will probably change as trading continues.

My boys, HiSam and Rowr, what are your thoughts

[Hisam135i]

What are your ideas on the data coming out of china tomorrow and the Spain talks that are occurring

[Hisam135i]

Looks like Spain got approved for up to 125 billion

[BayMoWe335]

Sorry bears.

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by BayMoWe335

Sorry bears.

No need for the kind words. That $100B Euros is going be pulled straight out again from the bank runs happening in Spain. They've already taken out $97B Euros this year, now they're asking Germany for the bailout to cover that. Just watch for Greek Elections. If Syriza wins, the bank "jogs" currently happening around Europe are going to turn into full on Bank Sprints. A lot more money is needed.

Charts do look like they have an upside of about +25 on SPX, +250-300 on DOW, or about ~1.8%. Still full short.