Stock market Thread II--Technical Analysis

[BayMoWe335]

Originally Posted by BayMoWe335

I'm long AAPL too...just stay patient and buy more if you have the stomach.

I agree they need some hype to boost excitement again (although their last earnings report says the stock needs no hype), but they are trading at 7 times forward earnings minus cash.

It's frustrating to see the best tech company in the world struggle and trade so cheaply, especially after the monster quarter. They had a perfect quarter, have zero debt, $100+ billion in cash, and will start paying a dividend. Yet companies like FB are valued at $100b with $3.7b in sales? LNKD? SF.com? It's a joke, but makes me feel people are doubting AAPL's ability to keep momentum with such large numbers. This may be true, but I believe AAPL has another leg up before it starts to decline for good. We just haven't seen any evidence in the numbers that they are slowing down, but AAPL is having to "prove" it every quarter. That's not the best thing for a stock. I think right now AAPL is being manipulated to shake out the weak hands.

Also, the iPhone 5 is going to be a beast. Mark it down.

As I predicted (and put money where my mouth is), it's already up a lot from here, but I believe AAPL is setting up to break out. That is, unless the entire market tanks...then all bets are off.

[r0wr]

Originally Posted by BayMoWe335

As I predicted (and put money where my mouth is), it's already up a lot from here, but I believe AAPL is setting up to break out. That is, unless the entire market tanks...then all bets are off.

AAPL already bourght above it's ascending triangle break out by a little and is riding the top of its trend line. Target is around 595.

Vanity, what do you think about the market going onto the fifth elliot wave on the daily/weekly chart? We seem to be completing wave four right now and we should be seeing wave five soon. Not my chart but this is what I'm referring to. http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/wp-c...PlanWeekly.png

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by r0wr

AAPL already bourght above it's ascending triangle break out by a little and is riding the top of its trend line. Target is around 595.

Vanity, what do you think about the market going onto the fifth elliot wave on the daily/weekly chart? We seem to be completing wave four right now and we should be seeing wave five soon. Not my chart but this is what I'm referring to. http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/wp-c...PlanWeekly.png

I think for EW I would put the count currently at a Major C wave down.

[Vanity]

That sandwich is us. Welcome Mama Bear

[r0wr]

Originally Posted by BayMoWe335

As I predicted (and put money where my mouth is), it's already up a lot from here, but I believe AAPL is setting up to break out. That is, unless the entire market tanks...then all bets are off.

Looks like AAPL was a rising wedge instead of an ascending triangle.

Vanity, do you not wanna buy this dip? I sort of do..

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by r0wr

Looks like AAPL was a rising wedge instead of an ascending triangle.

Vanity, do you not wanna buy this dip? I sort of do..

Buy at your own risks. There is a possibility if we close above 1290 (lol) on the SPX that this will be a ST bottom where the bulls might rally a bit (nothing extreme). But I'm favouring this being an out-right crash, and definitely worst than last July/August. Tbh, the 25-30 handle down we're seeing today on the tape is not even in panic territory yet. Remember last year? 60-80 handles everyday.

And I'm updating my chart from last week.

[r0wr]

Vanity, $NYMO speaks volumes and is one indicator that cannot be excluded. I say retrace to 1300 before we fall

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by r0wr

Vanity, $NYMO speaks volumes and is one indicator that cannot be excluded. I say retrace to 1300 before we fall

Put up the NYSE chart you're looking at. From what I can see, there is plenty of room to fall before a bottom occurs?

[Vanity]

Dear mother of goodness, I hope everyone followed the last few posts and sold everything long....

Rowr, you didn't buy into the close for Friday, did you? :/

[EvosM3]

I'm still 40% long and am heavily hedged with inverse index ETF's and puts. Lol, I think we will have a repeat of 2008 by August.

[r0wr]

I'm still a couple k into SPXU @ 50 (well, 10 before the split) and I've been in TVIX since thursday so I'm good right now. I bought LNKD options for their June ER so I might lose a little on that but other than that, I'm not long at all.

[Hisam135i]

Originally Posted by r0wr

I'm still a couple k into SPXU @ 50 (well, 10 before the split) and I've been in TVIX since thursday so I'm good right now. I bought LNKD options for their June ER so I might lose a little on that but other than that, I'm not long at all.

I also picked up some MS calls for June Might lose a bit on but other than that I'm short so it's fine

[Hisam135i]

Glad I was up early when the market was up and was able to sell those calls

[Vanity]

Big intraday reversal, today was supposed to be our firework crash down. It didn't happen. Market participants are now trying to hold this house of cards together with rumors: master plan in Germany, ECB talks on Wed, Bernanke on thurs. today's intraday reversal on the day of a crash tells me we will be seeing one final pump and dump (possibly).

Scenario 1: we rally to 1290-1340 on news, that will ultimately disappoint. This sets us up for an absolutely enormous meltdown (more than scenario 2) so it would be good to buy shorts all the way up to these levels.

Scenario 2: this is the resemblance of August 3rd, 2011, where the day looked like a bottom but then was follow by 60 and 80 handles down the following next day. Is would take us to, in his scenario, 1200 before a relief, and then resume the crash (ultimate target 900-1050).

[EvosM3]

Hmmm. A strange week so far, we still have room to the upside and I will probably unload my calls tomorrow and play whatever happens next safely. Doesn't Bernanke speak on Thursday?

[SuperBmw]

I wokeup in a panic to get the hell outta the market today since I never got home on time Friday and oddly enough the last 2 days I've been in the green.

I have a feeling the potential for gains right now is very little where the potential downside potential is a lot higher, maybe the small profits to be made aren't worth the risk of the larger downside.

Anybody pulling out tommorow morning or mid day?

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by SuperBmw

I wokeup in a panic to get the hell outta the market today since I never got home on time Friday and oddly enough the last 2 days I've been in the green.

I have a feeling the potential for gains right now is very little where the potential downside potential is a lot higher, maybe the small profits to be made aren't worth the risk of the larger downside.

Anybody pulling out tommorow morning or mid day?

Well, for me, I have sold my short positions as of Monday after that large intraday reversal. I have since picked up my shorts again at lower prices, in small increments, as to average down slowly and as a hedge. I will be seeing if it's worth a long, because this market does have atleast some room to go up for a larger crash (potentially). Not sure which situation is working out atm so the next 2-3 days will be crucial. Either this is a ST launch pad (for that strong relief rally we needed a week ago, but that never materialized) or we crash from here. A similar thing happened last year, where the markets declined and paused for 2 weeks, then rallied until the edge of the cliff and lost 12% in 5 days. we shall see, but nimble is for sure the only strategy atm.

[Hisam135i]

Originally Posted by Vanity

Well, for me, I have sold my short positions as of Monday after that large intraday reversal. I have since picked up my shorts again at lower prices, in small increments, as to average down slowly and as a hedge. I will be seeing if it's worth a long, because this market does have atleast some room to go up for a larger crash (potentially). Not sure which situation is working out atm so the next 2-3 days will be crucial. Either this is a ST launch pad (for that strong relief rally we needed a week ago, but that never materialized) or we crash from here. A similar thing happened last year, where the markets declined and paused for 2 weeks, then rallied until the edge of the cliff and lost 12% in 5 days. we shall see, but nimble is for sure the only strategy atm.

Agreed I have been playing safe day in day out and haven't been holding anything over night usually load up on options in the morning and get out in a few hours

[EvosM3]

I bought GOOG June 8 575 calls for $4.52 this morning because it seemed like it was at an intraday bottom. I was wrong and it fell and stayed at around $568 for most of the day. Damn time decay took out around $0.50 per contract by EOD too, the fact that it was stuck in a $1 range for 3 hours didn't help much either. A rally tomorrow should help me rid of them for a profit though.

[EvosM3]

Damn, I sold those GOOG calls at $5.60. Now they're up to $8. Fuuuu. SPY is up nicely too at 130.90.

[Hisam135i]

Originally Posted by EvosM3

Damn, I sold those GOOG calls at $5.60. Now they're up to $8. Fuuuu. SPY is up nicely too at 130.90.

thats rough lol hopefully this will cheer you up, I picked up MS calls on friday at 1.27 sold at 1.04 on monday -_- its up to 1.75 today

Just picked up some BAC puts what do you guys think?

[Hisam135i]

sweet getting my ass handed to me again, broke straight through its 200DMA on the hourly chart