Stock market Thread II--Technical Analysis

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by EvosM3

I've lost so much money with AAPL. I'm trying my hardest with AAPL and SPY puts to lower my losses but no avail. Any ideas as to what will happen next week? More bloodshed?

Flip a coin for next week. It's either we go up 1000 points or down the other way. It's a tipping point, but as I said earlier I don't think a crash in May is as likely as the crash happening in June/July, after we get the FOMC off the table.

Stay nimble, traders.

[Hisam135i]

Originally Posted by Vanity

Flip a coin for next week. It's either we go up 1000 points or down the other way. It's a tipping point, but as I said earlier I don't think a crash in May is as likely as the crash happening in June/July, after we get the FOMC off the table.

Stay nimble, traders.

Agreed, I have been doing my best to make profits and get out.. As in trying not to hold anything over night for the reason that this is the month of uncertainty in the market anything can happen! I also expect the major sell offs more likely to occur in June/July.

For those unaware be cautions of the "sell in may and go away" phrase!

[Hisam135i]

Did you guys here about the Facebook law suit?

http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-18/facebook-sued-for-15-billion-in-suit-over-user-tracking.html

[BayMoWe335]

Originally Posted by EvosM3

I've lost so much money with AAPL. I'm trying my hardest with AAPL and SPY puts to lower my losses but no avail. Any ideas as to what will happen next week? More bloodshed?

I'm long AAPL too...just stay patient and buy more if you have the stomach.

I agree they need some hype to boost excitement again (although their last earnings report says the stock needs no hype), but they are trading at 7 times forward earnings minus cash.

It's frustrating to see the best tech company in the world struggle and trade so cheaply, especially after the monster quarter. They had a perfect quarter, have zero debt, $100+ billion in cash, and will start paying a dividend. Yet companies like FB are valued at $100b with $3.7b in sales? LNKD? SF.com? It's a joke, but makes me feel people are doubting AAPL's ability to keep momentum with such large numbers. This may be true, but I believe AAPL has another leg up before it starts to decline for good. We just haven't seen any evidence in the numbers that they are slowing down, but AAPL is having to "prove" it every quarter. That's not the best thing for a stock. I think right now AAPL is being manipulated to shake out the weak hands.

Also, the iPhone 5 is going to be a beast. Mark it down.

[Hisam135i]

Originally Posted by BayMoWe335

I'm long AAPL too...just stay patient and buy more if you have the stomach.

I agree they need some hype to boost excitement again (although their last earnings report says the stock needs no hype), but they are trading at 7 times forward earnings minus cash.

It's frustrating to see the best tech company in the world struggle and trade so cheaply, especially after the monster quarter. They had a perfect quarter, have zero debt, $100+ billion in cash and companies like FB are valued at $100b with $3.7b in sales? It's a joke, but makes me feel people are doubting AAPL's ability to keep momentum with such large numbers. This may be true, but I believe AAPL has another leg up before it starts to decline for good. If nothing else, the iPhone 5 will be a hit...you can buy AAPL on that alone.

I honestly believe right now that Apple is only falling because it's just the seasonal tendency for almost everything to fall. Also, last time I checked 71% of the owners of Apple stock are all large investment firms. The way these guys trade is one foot out the door and one foot in, meaning if they have any doubt they'll dump a vast majority of there stock. Lastly, because large institutions mostly own apple, a lot of larger institutions are shifting there money into things like FB now. Last quarter Apple was there star child now im guessing FB will be this quarters.

[EvosM3]

FB has stolen lots of AAPL's thunder, IMO, and when investors realize that AAPL is such a better thing to have in their portfolio they will dump FB and get back into apple, once again setting it's price trajectory forward. The Jan $705 calls I bought on April 25 are down a good 50%, you can pick up some if you're ballsy.

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by EvosM3

FB has stolen lots of AAPL's thunder, IMO, and when investors realize that AAPL is such a better thing to have in their portfolio they will dump FB and get back into apple, once again setting it's price trajectory forward. The Jan $705 calls I bought on April 25 are down a good 50%, you can pick up some if you're ballsy.

Holy sh*t $705 calls?? Definitely need the balls to play that one... You're going to need the reincarnation of a deity descending down from the skies before we see AAPL carry the market like Atlas again.... That's adding another third to the largest market capitalization out there... no small feat.


And I'm not so sure it's FB stealing AAPL's thunder away. Maybe $5-10 dollars on the AAPL stock decline can be money going into FB, but for the majority of the $100 dollar decline in that stock, the descent occurred long before FB came out. You have to ask yourself, if your theory is that AAPL money went into FB stock (causing AAPL stock to decline so much), then how come underwriters had to back-stop FB with $1-2 Billion dollars on Day 1 of it's IPO? That kind of money leaving AAPL, if it were true it was going into FB, would have absolutely skyrocketed FB's IPO, whose entire company is only 1/5th the value of AAPL (equal to all of AAPL's decline thus far). In short, I don't think FB has anything to do with AAPL's decline. The money leaving AAPL is clearly not going into FB stock (that's for the muppets to have at). Instead, that money is probably leaving into US treasury yields right now as we've just broken a 10 year channel (quite significant).

Either the market right now has over-extended itself and US treasury yields need to come back down, and money needs to re-enter equities, or this is the market telling us that the 10 year break in treasuries is the first sign of a behemoth charging towards us. Monday's trading will be very crucial to direction. If the markets pop 200+ points on Monday, I will immediately liquidate my shorts as I believe that might signal an oversold rally in stocks. But we shall see how it "feels" on Monday.


P.S. Guys, do your research on FB if you are going to invest in it. The valuation on that thing is ridiculous. $100 Billion dollar valuation for FB is equivalent to McDonalds. Lets just look at the basics here. McDonalds generates a SOLID 20% profit for every customer that enters the restaurant franchise worldwide (a customer base much larger than FB's 800 Million users). Does FB even make close to a 20% profit on us when we use the site? I never click any advertisements. In fact, the advertisement fees on accessing FB users is much higher than normal internet advertisement fees. Let's say the access fee is 37 cents USD for every user (if I recall correctly). Do you honestly think 37 Cents USD can be charged to access all 800 million users that FB has all over the world? No. Because 37 cents USD in North America and Europe is not the same 37 cents USD to advertise in other places around the world.

Considering that FB's future depends on accessing markets like India, 37 Cents USD to access every Indian FB user is a price too steep to pay for marketers there. There are MUCH cheaper ways. Wherever McDonald's expands globally, it will be able to off-set costs and still maintain that 20% profit margin. However, FB's global growth model cannot extract a standardized advertisement fee, hence, why I don't own FB stock. Btw, FB also lowered it's guidance during it's IPO roadshow. That probably means there's been some huge earnings deterioration from then till now. You have been warned.

[roastbeef]

interesting stuff. i'm quite the novice with this stuff, and i opted not to buy FB after talking to several people in the know.

[Hisam135i]

FB is taking a beating

[ironjw]

Originally Posted by Hisam135i

FB is taking a beating

big time!!

[solefald]

Originally Posted by Hisam135i

FB is taking a beating

is anyone really surprised?

i'm going to have some good laughs at my co-workers today. one of them dropped $10K on this shit on Friday, despite people telling him not to.

[Hisam135i]

Originally Posted by solefald

is anyone really surprised?

i'm going to have some good laughs at my co-workers today. one of them dropped $10K on this shit on Friday, despite people telling him not to.

LOL hell no haha way over hyped this was another yelp deal

[Hisam135i]

btw anyone here trade forex?

[Erhan]

Originally Posted by BayMoWe335

They had a perfect quarter, have zero debt, $100+ billion in cash, and will start paying a dividend.

I agree that Apple will keep going up. That being said, paying dividend is a mistake for Apple. Also, Samsung is becoming a bigger thread (in smartphone market) so is Microsoft with win8. Lastly, the market cap is such a large number, it creates resistance. If you ask me, Apple should already be $1000/share, but then their market cap will be 1 trillion dollars!

[r0wr]

Market is rebounding like I said it would but the haters have nothing to say. My best guess is one leg up and then we try for the most recent low again and will adjust accordingly. I went long TQQQ today (easy $) and am setting GTC sell stops. I agree with what most of you have said about FB but buying today could be easy $ if you know what you're doing. I also don't discount the possibility of a gap down tomorrow though, given how we've progressed today.

[r0wr]

Originally Posted by EvosM3

FB has stolen lots of AAPL's thunder, IMO, and when investors realize that AAPL is such a better thing to have in their portfolio they will dump FB and get back into apple, once again setting it's price trajectory forward. The Jan $705 calls I bought on April 25 are down a good 50%, you can pick up some if you're ballsy.

Pick up some if you honestly think this market is up IT or LT. but I don't think it is. Apple is rebounding but will retest recent lows eventually. Careful buddy

[Vanity]

"I'd say there is about a 50-50 chance that the markets will be up or down in the next 6 months" - CNBC.

Gotta love that exclusive wisdom. I wish I could foresee things like that, darn. Just a lowly common muppet myself.

[Vanity]

Let's see how we've done so far:

March 16th, 2012, I posted telling you guys a top was forming, indeed it was a blow-off top formation occuring. From the months April and onwards thus far, we have not had a bull rally to new highs.

Originally Posted by Vanity

Anybody noticing the blow-off top formation?

SPX saw 120% volume relative to last 10-day avg volume. Dumb money is getting in on the top. Insiders have been selling since Feb, picking up selling pace from 6:1 in Feb, to now 7:1 in March, and most recently at 13:1.

I really do believe 2012 is going to mirror 2008.

Food for thought. Trade accordingly. I believe the months from April - September will be really rough. This is all my opinion so everyone hear should research and tinker it to their investment needs.

-------------------------------

March 28th, 2012: I posted to tell you guys about record insider selling. The selling was at panic levels, with the dollar ratio of Sell:Buy being 44:1.

Originally Posted by Vanity

Morning Bulls!

Insider Selling

"The ratio of insider selling to insider buying is even more pronounced on a value basis, hitting its highest level in a year recently, according to data from Thomson Reuters. Taking the total market into account, insiders sold $44.77 worth of stock for every dollar they bought in February. That's the highest insider sell-to-buy ratio since February 2011, when it hit $44.53 to $1."

That is all.

-------------------------------


March 29th, 2012, the day after. Watching for the top to form possibly around 1414, it forms three days later April 2nd at 1422. Previously, I wrote that from April onwards I believed we were headed for a rough period. We topped out at the start of April, and began the descent.

Originally Posted by Vanity

Standing by to see whether or not a top has just formed. Pointed out a couple days ago of a blow-off top formation. We will know soon if 1414 is the top for spx.

-------------------------------


April 5th, 2012, top is confirmed and I advised everyone here to liquidate longs and protect profits.

Originally Posted by Vanity

Not sure about you guys but, in my opinion, now would be a good time to lock in the profits from your longs. It's about to become deja vu all over again soon. We hit 1430 region on ES and have not come anywhere close to that since, signaling a top is most likely in place. 1400 is now turning into resistance again. Will be interesting to see what happens.

-------------------------------

April 18th, 2012, I wrote about how Goldman Sachs' VAR was signalling the company's contraction in portfolio size to minimize downward risk. I had previously written about insiders ditching holdings at panic levels, and also dumb money getting in at the top. The entire month of April was a consolidation period whereby large and commercial speculators were liquidating longs quite heavily. As you see on the chart, April went nowhere. Big Boys were trading bags with retail investors daily, preparing for the decline. I also wrote about the one-day decline in AAPL being a telling sign of liquidation.

Originally Posted by Vanity

Goldman adds caution to risk appetite

Hey guys, here's an update to let you guys get a clue of where the big-boys are standing in the game relative to us.

Goldman Sachs Value at Risk per annum:
2007-2008 = ~$158 Million, reduced risk exposure on it's portfolio before the crisis hit.
2009 = $218 Million, took on ~40% more risk appetite as we rebounded sharply upwards in 09.

Q1 2011 = $113 Million, before the Eurozone crisis
Q4 2011 = $135 Million, when markets bottomed, GS put more money
to work riding the wave up. About an additional 20% more of
their portfolio relative to year-start.

So where is Goldman putting it's money to work now?

Q1 2012 = $95 Million. That's $40 Million down from $135 Million, or about a depreciation of 30%. That's right. Goldman has just taken out 30% of their portfolio and in the VaR you can see this risk decreasing by 30% from 135M last quarter to 95M this quarter. Risk appetite at GS is at a 5-year low. Risk-assumed is even lower than just before the Financial Crisis of 08'

Now, this is my own opinion, I think the 4.5% sell-off we had in AAPL the other day was indication of the big-pros pulling out. Think about it, how much money has to leave AAPL for it to sell-off 4.5% when the markets were having an UP day? -4.5% is huge.

Food for thought.

-------------------------------

May 4th, 2012, I post telling you guys, after notifying you of large specs dumping stocks, that the only net Long in this market now were the Small Speculators (retail investors). I said that Large and Comm Specs were now the ones fully net short, and if the market were to dive now, it would dive real fast. This is why last week in Options expiration week, which usually ends positive (a fact drilled in on CNBS to the sheeplings), we did NOT end positive but instead ended down.

Originally Posted by Vanity

I also want to tell you guys that small speculators are now the only group net Long this market. Commercial and large speculators are all net short. This doesn't happen very often, but when it does it's "typically" a losing hand for small specs. I say typically because small specs can win, but usually they don't. So if we start heading south on this market, it's going to get real ugly real fast. You will know who's driving the train.

-------------------------------


May 1st-now, We enter a market breakdown. I had given many warning signs beforehand of retail volume coming in, tops in formation, large spec positions, etc that had led up till this. I even told members here to liquidate longs 3 days after the top formed, and 1 month before the declines in May began.
-------------------------------


Today, May 21st.

Posted here that I wanted to see a convincing rally Monday morning for me to liquidate my short positions. For the 1,000 point decline in the DJIA currently, today's 130 point reversal is not enough to stop a slide of that magnitude, imo. I was looking for a 1.5-2% bounce today (or 200 points), didn't get it.

Everyone was discussing the ST RSI being oversold, oversold. Well, the ST RSI on my charts now reads 60, so a good way has come back. This may be a setup for another decline. Consider the chart below I put together:



We shall see where tomorrow's trading goes, that will be telling. We will definitely need a very strong move in order to counter-this. MACD Lines on the ST basis are back to about the same place as last week, where we initiated the next decline down.

MACD lines on the IT and LT basis, though, are very much trapped in a steep decline. We may see a strong relief rally after more selling this week, as that would free up room above. G-8 meeting, though promised bold words, still came $1 trillion USD short of the answer.



P.S. Bring back that guy who said we were wrong. Feed him to the bears!

[Dr. G]

Some of guys are very knowledgable, love reading your posts!
I've been quietly following everything and just wanted to thank all of you for your insight.

Hoping for a small bounce back to recover some lost profits and then I'll just take my profits and hold cash for a bit to see what happens. I don't want to be in the markets any later than mid-june without having a more clear idea of where things are heading.

Hopefully TVIX can help recover some of my lost gains. I was gaining at an unrealistic rate and was getting a bit over-excited haha, time to settle down and be more rational now.

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by Dr. G

Some of guys are very knowledgable, love reading your posts!
I've been quietly following everything and just wanted to thank all of you for your insight.

Hoping for a small bounce back to recover some lost profits and then I'll just take my profits and hold cash for a bit to see what happens. I don't want to be in the markets any later than mid-june without having a more clear idea of where things are heading.

Hopefully TVIX can help recover some of my lost gains. I was gaining at an unrealistic rate and was getting a bit over-excited haha, time to settle down and be more rational now.

Thanks for the kind words! Tell us how it goes. Btw, what is your portfolio geared towards?


And, looks like eTrade baby invested in Facebook :



Just FYI guys, FB has entered a Bear Market. It opened at 45.00 and dropped to 34.01 close today. That's a 24% decline in 2 days. The largest Tech IPO in history, entering a Bear Market within 2 days of it's release. This must be the biggest Omen.

[Hisam135i]

Originally Posted by Vanity

Thanks for the kind words! Tell us how it goes. Btw, what is your portfolio geared towards?


And, looks like eTrade baby invested in Facebook :



Just FYI guys, FB has entered a Bear Market. It opened at 45.00 and dropped to 34.01 close today. That's a 24% decline in 2 days. The largest Tech IPO in history, entering a Bear Market within 2 days of it's release. This must be the biggest Omen.

That seriously made me laugh and agreed it must be an omen, but!! it is quite profitable if you're watching carefully and dont get greedy by just playing the up and down spikes!

[r0wr]

Originally Posted by Vanity

Thanks for the kind words! Tell us how it goes. Btw, what is your portfolio geared towards?

Stop taking all the credit bro! Haha I'm just kidding. TMV is gonna be killing.. I think.