Stock market tips and experiences

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by Hisam135i

+1, I however enjoyed the ride for a bit i bought in at 38.05 sold at 40.79 haha

can't believe you made money n that flip

[JesterEXW]

Haha, wow nice move on that if you managed to turn it. Well played

[solefald]

My co-workers are dropping cash like crazy on FB stock. Suckers.

[Hisam135i]

Originally Posted by Vanity

can't believe you made money n that flip

I felt safe buying in there, 38 was a solid support and they would not let it drop below its initial offering price on its first day anyway haha

Originally Posted by JesterEXW

Haha, wow nice move on that if you managed to turn it. Well played

Thank you sir!

The funny thing is i made money long fb and money with my puts on ge

bearish/bullish day hahaha

[EvosM3]

I'm surprised Hisam135i was able to buy it at all. Anywho, I feel sorry for the retail investors who are pouring their money into this. Apparently none of them understand that the only people profiting off of FB are the funds and now the funds are going to be profiting again when the retail investors are losing money.

[Patrick303]

Personally I'm not buying into FB. At least not right now. It's overvalued. They don't produce anything, so all their income is ad revenue based. And companies are already reporting that FB ads aren't more effective than other media. GM just pulled their $10 million ad campaign with FB.

Yet the current stock price values Facebook higher than other large companies with solid producct lines and revenues.

Add the fact that they lost momentum in the first quarter of 2012 and that they shortened the lock-up period to 90 days, it sounds like a ton of people will be unloading the stock when the lock-up expires if they can't make numbers next quarter.

[EvosM3]

I've lost so much money with AAPL. I'm trying my hardest with AAPL and SPY puts to lower my losses but no avail. Any ideas as to what will happen next week? More bloodshed?

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by EvosM3

I've lost so much money with AAPL. I'm trying my hardest with AAPL and SPY puts to lower my losses but no avail. Any ideas as to what will happen next week? More bloodshed?

Flip a coin for next week. It's either we go up 1000 points or down the other way. It's a tipping point, but as I said earlier I don't think a crash in May is as likely as the crash happening in June/July, after we get the FOMC off the table.

Stay nimble, traders.

[Hisam135i]

Originally Posted by Vanity

Flip a coin for next week. It's either we go up 1000 points or down the other way. It's a tipping point, but as I said earlier I don't think a crash in May is as likely as the crash happening in June/July, after we get the FOMC off the table.

Stay nimble, traders.

Agreed, I have been doing my best to make profits and get out.. As in trying not to hold anything over night for the reason that this is the month of uncertainty in the market anything can happen! I also expect the major sell offs more likely to occur in June/July.

For those unaware be cautions of the "sell in may and go away" phrase!

[Hisam135i]

Did you guys here about the Facebook law suit?

http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-18/facebook-sued-for-15-billion-in-suit-over-user-tracking.html

[BayMoWe335]

Originally Posted by EvosM3

I've lost so much money with AAPL. I'm trying my hardest with AAPL and SPY puts to lower my losses but no avail. Any ideas as to what will happen next week? More bloodshed?

I'm long AAPL too...just stay patient and buy more if you have the stomach.

I agree they need some hype to boost excitement again (although their last earnings report says the stock needs no hype), but they are trading at 7 times forward earnings minus cash.

It's frustrating to see the best tech company in the world struggle and trade so cheaply, especially after the monster quarter. They had a perfect quarter, have zero debt, $100+ billion in cash, and will start paying a dividend. Yet companies like FB are valued at $100b with $3.7b in sales? LNKD? SF.com? It's a joke, but makes me feel people are doubting AAPL's ability to keep momentum with such large numbers. This may be true, but I believe AAPL has another leg up before it starts to decline for good. We just haven't seen any evidence in the numbers that they are slowing down, but AAPL is having to "prove" it every quarter. That's not the best thing for a stock. I think right now AAPL is being manipulated to shake out the weak hands.

Also, the iPhone 5 is going to be a beast. Mark it down.

[Hisam135i]

Originally Posted by BayMoWe335

I'm long AAPL too...just stay patient and buy more if you have the stomach.

I agree they need some hype to boost excitement again (although their last earnings report says the stock needs no hype), but they are trading at 7 times forward earnings minus cash.

It's frustrating to see the best tech company in the world struggle and trade so cheaply, especially after the monster quarter. They had a perfect quarter, have zero debt, $100+ billion in cash and companies like FB are valued at $100b with $3.7b in sales? It's a joke, but makes me feel people are doubting AAPL's ability to keep momentum with such large numbers. This may be true, but I believe AAPL has another leg up before it starts to decline for good. If nothing else, the iPhone 5 will be a hit...you can buy AAPL on that alone.

I honestly believe right now that Apple is only falling because it's just the seasonal tendency for almost everything to fall. Also, last time I checked 71% of the owners of Apple stock are all large investment firms. The way these guys trade is one foot out the door and one foot in, meaning if they have any doubt they'll dump a vast majority of there stock. Lastly, because large institutions mostly own apple, a lot of larger institutions are shifting there money into things like FB now. Last quarter Apple was there star child now im guessing FB will be this quarters.

[EvosM3]

FB has stolen lots of AAPL's thunder, IMO, and when investors realize that AAPL is such a better thing to have in their portfolio they will dump FB and get back into apple, once again setting it's price trajectory forward. The Jan $705 calls I bought on April 25 are down a good 50%, you can pick up some if you're ballsy.

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by EvosM3

FB has stolen lots of AAPL's thunder, IMO, and when investors realize that AAPL is such a better thing to have in their portfolio they will dump FB and get back into apple, once again setting it's price trajectory forward. The Jan $705 calls I bought on April 25 are down a good 50%, you can pick up some if you're ballsy.

Holy sh*t $705 calls?? Definitely need the balls to play that one... You're going to need the reincarnation of a deity descending down from the skies before we see AAPL carry the market like Atlas again.... That's adding another third to the largest market capitalization out there... no small feat.


And I'm not so sure it's FB stealing AAPL's thunder away. Maybe $5-10 dollars on the AAPL stock decline can be money going into FB, but for the majority of the $100 dollar decline in that stock, the descent occurred long before FB came out. You have to ask yourself, if your theory is that AAPL money went into FB stock (causing AAPL stock to decline so much), then how come underwriters had to back-stop FB with $1-2 Billion dollars on Day 1 of it's IPO? That kind of money leaving AAPL, if it were true it was going into FB, would have absolutely skyrocketed FB's IPO, whose entire company is only 1/5th the value of AAPL (equal to all of AAPL's decline thus far). In short, I don't think FB has anything to do with AAPL's decline. The money leaving AAPL is clearly not going into FB stock (that's for the muppets to have at). Instead, that money is probably leaving into US treasury yields right now as we've just broken a 10 year channel (quite significant).

Either the market right now has over-extended itself and US treasury yields need to come back down, and money needs to re-enter equities, or this is the market telling us that the 10 year break in treasuries is the first sign of a behemoth charging towards us. Monday's trading will be very crucial to direction. If the markets pop 200+ points on Monday, I will immediately liquidate my shorts as I believe that might signal an oversold rally in stocks. But we shall see how it "feels" on Monday.


P.S. Guys, do your research on FB if you are going to invest in it. The valuation on that thing is ridiculous. $100 Billion dollar valuation for FB is equivalent to McDonalds. Lets just look at the basics here. McDonalds generates a SOLID 20% profit for every customer that enters the restaurant franchise worldwide (a customer base much larger than FB's 800 Million users). Does FB even make close to a 20% profit on us when we use the site? I never click any advertisements. In fact, the advertisement fees on accessing FB users is much higher than normal internet advertisement fees. Let's say the access fee is 37 cents USD for every user (if I recall correctly). Do you honestly think 37 Cents USD can be charged to access all 800 million users that FB has all over the world? No. Because 37 cents USD in North America and Europe is not the same 37 cents USD to advertise in other places around the world.

Considering that FB's future depends on accessing markets like India, 37 Cents USD to access every Indian FB user is a price too steep to pay for marketers there. There are MUCH cheaper ways. Wherever McDonald's expands globally, it will be able to off-set costs and still maintain that 20% profit margin. However, FB's global growth model cannot extract a standardized advertisement fee, hence, why I don't own FB stock. Btw, FB also lowered it's guidance during it's IPO roadshow. That probably means there's been some huge earnings deterioration from then till now. You have been warned.

[roastbeef]

interesting stuff. i'm quite the novice with this stuff, and i opted not to buy FB after talking to several people in the know.

[Hisam135i]

FB is taking a beating

[ironjw]

Originally Posted by Hisam135i

FB is taking a beating

big time!!

[solefald]

Originally Posted by Hisam135i

FB is taking a beating

is anyone really surprised?

i'm going to have some good laughs at my co-workers today. one of them dropped $10K on this shit on Friday, despite people telling him not to.

[Hisam135i]

Originally Posted by solefald

is anyone really surprised?

i'm going to have some good laughs at my co-workers today. one of them dropped $10K on this shit on Friday, despite people telling him not to.

LOL hell no haha way over hyped this was another yelp deal

[Hisam135i]

btw anyone here trade forex?

[Erhan]

Originally Posted by BayMoWe335

They had a perfect quarter, have zero debt, $100+ billion in cash, and will start paying a dividend.

I agree that Apple will keep going up. That being said, paying dividend is a mistake for Apple. Also, Samsung is becoming a bigger thread (in smartphone market) so is Microsoft with win8. Lastly, the market cap is such a large number, it creates resistance. If you ask me, Apple should already be $1000/share, but then their market cap will be 1 trillion dollars!

[r0wr]

Market is rebounding like I said it would but the haters have nothing to say. My best guess is one leg up and then we try for the most recent low again and will adjust accordingly. I went long TQQQ today (easy $) and am setting GTC sell stops. I agree with what most of you have said about FB but buying today could be easy $ if you know what you're doing. I also don't discount the possibility of a gap down tomorrow though, given how we've progressed today.