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      11-29-2011, 04:29 PM   #507
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I am invested in TZA now. We spent the entire day to gain 2.64 on spx? After a 3% pop? This rally is dead, or will be dead very soon. It spent the entire day trying break and hold over 1200, it couldn't do that. And we had good news come out with Italy having a relatively successful bond auction, a leveraging if the EFSF fund, and Greece getting its money. That was priced in at +2.64? Not a chance.
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      11-29-2011, 04:48 PM   #508
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Originally Posted by Javi335 View Post
All i know about economy, invest etc etc is that is a circus, a show

they decide the scene and you follow the krewe

pure science fiction

thats all

ciao, im gonna buy some bank of america stocks, they are so cheap now
Why would you do that? S&P had said they were going to be downgrading 87 banks across 15 countries. After hours they released the list, and it was so foreseeable that BAC was going to be hit. And they just got downgraded.
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      11-30-2011, 08:38 AM   #509
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Who would have thought the Central Banks would do that... mmm
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      11-30-2011, 09:51 AM   #510
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Who would have thought the Central Banks would do that... mmm
looks like we're gonna be testing 1275-1300 soon. enough talk about october lows, lets talk about october highs
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      11-30-2011, 09:57 AM   #511
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looks like we're gonna be testing 1275-1300 soon. enough talk about october lows, lets talk about october highs
Not so sure. This interest rate business of 0.5% cut across all central bank loans globally is a big deal, if you trade forex. This does not address in any way the Euro Crisis, nor the funding issues of EFSF and Italy's bond markets. It's nice to say the Central Banks are collectively working together, but it also shows things have been a lot worse than we expected for such large-scale action. Today was a big buffer for household and business credit lines in the event of a Euro Collaspe. The Central banks globally got together to do this? Holy shit. That means it must be pretty bad in Europe.

But Europe isn't a liquidity crisis, and liquidity has already racked everyman and his dog with debt for the past 3 years. Who's to say households and business will borrow more? Can they even? And why the central banks have come together to slash interest rates, the bigger news is that they haven't come together to save the countries, only prepare for their collapse. Interesting...

I'm expecting markets to realize something after today. That 400 point rally today was on 25M Volume. That is not a rally. That is artificial, and we all know what has happened to every artificial rally in history. Poof.
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      11-30-2011, 10:07 AM   #512
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Not so sure. This interest rate business of 0.5% cut across all central bank loans globally is a big deal, if you trade forex. This does not address in any way the Euro Crisis, nor the funding issues of EFSF and Italy's bond markets. It's nice to say the Central Banks are collectively working together, but it also shows things have been a lot worse than we expected for such large-scale action. Today was a big buffer for household and business credit lines in the event of a Euro Collaspe. The Central banks globally got together to do this? Holy shit. That means it must be pretty bad in Europe.

But Europe isn't a liquidity crisis, and liquidity has already racked everyman and his dog with debt for the past 3 years. Who's to say households and business will borrow more? Can they even? And why the central banks have come together to slash interest rates, the bigger news is that they haven't come together to save the countries, only prepare for their collapse. Interesting...

I'm expecting markets to realize something after today. That 400 point rally today was on 25M Volume. That is not a rally. That is artificial, and we all know what has happened to every artificial rally in history. Poof.
I agree that the overall outlook is still very poor fundamentally but im convinced that the markets are overwhelmingly dependent on headlines, regardless of the actual fundamental implications of a headline (like you explained above).
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      11-30-2011, 10:29 AM   #513
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I agree that the overall outlook is still very poor fundamentally but im convinced that the markets are overwhelmingly dependent on headlines, regardless of the actual fundamental implications of a headline (like you explained above).
French Downgrade news should trump the Central Banks headline
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      11-30-2011, 10:35 AM   #514
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French Downgrade news should trump the Central Banks headline
What a shorter! Love the aggressive attitude. You dont think the french downgrade is already somewhat priced in? It shouldnt be a total surprise.

By the way what trading platform do you use? How do you track intra-day volume so closely?
Im on streetsmart edge.
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      11-30-2011, 11:43 AM   #515
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Hi All,

Just curious, did anybody jump into AMR today? It seems very low and has potential upside in the MT/LT

Using the other airlines that are now post Chapter 11, it seems like, if you have the time, be a good opportunity to jump in.
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      11-30-2011, 11:47 AM   #516
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a bullish conviction bar today(we finish strong in upper 1/4 of bar) means were headed to 1300...1220-50 theory doesnt look likely now due to ECB/FED/CHINA money printing scheme...but thats ok...we just need a trend doesnt matter which way really.

Positioned long metals this am...money printing means metals should show strength...todays close very important...if we close strong which I suspect we will, I can no longer be bearish for the ST/IT...LT I am very bearish.
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      11-30-2011, 02:05 PM   #517
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Damnit, I let the tehcnical talk in this thread scare me off yesterday and I pulled out of some oil holdings... today could have been a goood day.
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      11-30-2011, 02:34 PM   #518
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Damnit, I let the tehcnical talk in this thread scare me off yesterday and I pulled out of some oil holdings... today could have been a goood day.


You and everyone else. Hedge funds pulled out 30% of their stock holdings before today's mega rally. They must be jumping out of windows in NY.
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      11-30-2011, 02:46 PM   #519
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Quote:
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You and everyone else. Hedge funds pulled out 30% of their stock holdings before today's mega rally. They must be jumping out of windows in NY.
30% damn! I'm gonna stick to my age old strategy of just waiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiting everything out.

I had been holding those positions I sold yesterday for about 2 years, no idea why I made such a quick decision yesterday to unload.
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      11-30-2011, 02:48 PM   #520
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Took a small position in FAZ yesterday, felt vindicated with the bank downgrades, and then today happens. At this point, I wonder if I should just ride it out or bail. I suppose I'll just let it sit LT.
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      11-30-2011, 02:55 PM   #521
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You and everyone else. Hedge funds pulled out 30% of their stock holdings before today's mega rally. They must be jumping out of windows in NY.
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      11-30-2011, 03:03 PM   #522
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Took a small position in FAZ yesterday, felt vindicated with the bank downgrades, and then today happens. At this point, I wonder if I should just ride it out or bail. I suppose I'll just let it sit LT.
Careful holding 3X leverage funds for any more than a trade. These funds are dangerous for long term investors because when they go down hard, it's much harder to dig out of the hole. A 3X leverage ETF will not outperform an unleveraged ETF with extreme volatility (Like now). Reason being? If you are down 50%, you have to make 100% to get back to even.

Moral of the story: Don't become a shareholder of a 3X leveraged fund. If you are wrong, take your medicine because you'll be down 50% before you know it. You might ask yourself why a 3X leveraged fund won't always outperform and non-leveraged fund. If you don't know the answer, you need to get out or fully understand it before trading them anymore.

Last edited by BayMoWe335; 11-30-2011 at 03:26 PM.
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      11-30-2011, 03:11 PM   #523
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30% damn! I'm gonna stick to my age old strategy of just waiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiting everything out.

I had been holding those positions I sold yesterday for about 2 years, no idea why I made such a quick decision yesterday to unload.
You were scared and panicked. Never panic...it's only money and nothing lasts forever, especially in this market. Don't like it? Wait a day..(see today).

I have reversed and become a bear, but not with the conviction that I will short this market. I've been selling my winners on the up days to raise cash. I'd rather just watch with now 75% cash and 25% value stocks I can hold for a while. CSCO is turning out to be a good call (I was buying all the way down to 13.50) and you might even warm up to financials if you can take some short to intermediate term pain and dollar cost average.

I recommend XLF or IXG. IXG is a global financial ETF and only has about 10-15% European exposure. It is down 58% over 5 years while XLF is down 65%. I realize that doesn't sound good, but you have to think financials will stabilize somewhat in the next 5 years when the housing market recovers.
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      12-01-2011, 01:54 AM   #524
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market bounced today. is this a real rally or fake one?
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      12-01-2011, 02:40 AM   #525
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market bounced today. is this a real rally or fake one?
Good sir, we had 150 M Volume come in at the end of the trading day. We've had one of the biggest volume supports for this entire month. What Central Banks did today, fundamentally, had nothing to help Europe's Debt Crisis. It only helped bankers get cheaper debt, to dig them out of more debt. And the stocks rallied on China Bank lowering reserves by 0.5%? That's only an injection of $58 Billion into the Chinese Economy. That news came out first, and caused the big initial rally. Really? I'm lost. That's a scratch. The trade deficit is bigger than that.

Technically and Fundamentally speaking, that should have been a huge short as it implied China was struggling desperately for growth. And sure enough, Chinese PMI came out at 49.0, proving the truth. Question is, is Media going to realize the Central Banks did nothing much today when S&P hits 1280? Will Euro Crisis hit headlines hard again? Wouldn't be the first week of ample good news followed by another week of "record lows". I'll wait till this one out.

So right now, my entire theory is smashed up and I was blinded today in a short position. I'm waiting it out. At the very least, I can hope for a huge rally on S&P to 1400 and then short this thing when it crashes in January, cause that piece of my puzzle is still good, for now. Unless ECB comes in.
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      12-01-2011, 02:46 AM   #526
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market bounced today. is this a real rally or fake one?
lets just say not much conviction....

for what its worth... since the beginning of November changes in the bid/ask of ES futs have increased drastically.... volume not so much....

just to give you a quick idea.... on May 6, 2010.... (flash crash) we had a total of 62798 changes in the bid/ash spread on ES from 8:00am to 3:15pm chicago time....


on Nov 29, 2011 we had 198610 changes in the bid/ask spread on ES from 8:00am to 3:15pm....

with a significant spread between # of cars executed on the two days.....


just some food for thought....
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      12-01-2011, 02:50 AM   #527
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also to make things a bit more interesting... on Nov 9, 2011.... when we were right in the midst of Greece/Italy being the main headlines....

we had a total of 271323 changes in the bid/ask spread on ES.... with much greater volume than what we saw today....
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      12-01-2011, 02:57 AM   #528
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Took a small position in FAZ yesterday, felt vindicated with the bank downgrades, and then today happens. At this point, I wonder if I should just ride it out or bail. I suppose I'll just let it sit LT.
You have to be aware of the "compounding interest error". What it means is NOT necessarily that you'd be losing money 100% of the time if you left it in and rode with it. All that it says is that interest compounds greater than what the index's arithmetic is: addition.

Say you bought in at index level: 12,000 on DJI. FAZ worth, just making it up, $100 dollars. All it means is that if the Index falls or goes up and repeats this cycle, the next time the DJI is a 12,000 will NOT mean that FAZ is still at $100 (because of the nature of how it compounds 3x daily). So they could work BOTH ways for you. On the one hand, if you think the index is going to definitely go below 12,000 then FAZ will probably hit above $100 on the way down.

But it could also not. Personally? I've ridden out 2x ETFs before for about a week and it's worked out for ME. Under the market circumstances at THAT time. It all depends on how you want to work this.

Most negative ETFs, if you had them in holding, were losing considerable money each week, each month, and each quarter, up until the crash of 2008. Where they returned upwards of around 38% on average. So, up to you. Work it out yourself and do some more reading.
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