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      08-06-2011, 12:53 AM   #23
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Originally Posted by pman10 View Post
The signs are all pretty clear. Consumer confidence and business confidence are plummeting. The stock markets are having day after day of losses. Previous quarters have had GDP growth revised downwards. Short-term yields on treasuries are going down, and gold is on the rise. The only thing we are missing is an inverted yield curve.

I definitely feel for whoever is in the government leadership right now, from an economic standpoint. What can you do? Cut taxes? That will worsen our deficit situation and could put us into default. More quantitative easing? There is a risk of inflation and even hyperinflation if we thread down that path more aggressively. Lower interest rates? Fed already has its discount rate at close to 0%, which is the only rate it can directly control.

Only thing I can think of is lower the reserve ratio down to 0, but that won't have a huge impact, and could be dangerous if there is ever a run on the banks. We can also try to stimulate business growth by reducing government restrictions (re-open oil and gas exploration in the gulf, reduce environmental restrictions, et.c).

Curious to hear what you other economist-minded people think is the solution, as it is pretty clear now that we are headed for recession.

With people like this in charge what do you expect?

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      08-06-2011, 01:33 PM   #24
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What can this administration do? Perhaps (dream on!) mass resignation?

Actually there's not much they can do given their locked down world view. Their propensity is to spend (government) their way out of it. Unfortunately, the funds for those adventures are all gone--ain't gonna happen. They'll have a devil of a time just getting a budget done (assuming they actually submit one) much less fix America. Good luck in '12 boys!
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      08-06-2011, 02:53 PM   #25
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anything short of releasing the engines that run on tap water, we are farked.

Some on here act as if there is a magical solution but there isnt...thats what happens when you have too much debt and the only answer to any problem is to print more money.

QE 3/4 will lead to severe inflation or hyperinflation hence will slow down the economy.

Austerity measures puts us into a deflationary depression.

A combo of the two will lead us to stagflation.

Dont let people fool you into thinking its the teabaggers who are economic terrorists going to lead us into a depression...thats what "they" want you think...to sway fault to a scapegoat.

Think about it, before the teabaggers were even mentioned were things going that great in the US?...of course not...we had the wild wild west on wallstreet and mainstreet got hurt yet again.

If a totally irresponsible person maxing out their credit cards and living beyond their means was told by a group of people that they need to stop spending and draw out a plan to get their debt under control would you call these people terrorists???....if the media kept telling you that you will believe it cause its human nature to do so.
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      08-06-2011, 03:11 PM   #26
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1. It is truly scary what you think will solve this mess...you KNOW job growth is the best way to get out of this mess and for the most part, I agree with you...but if you increase taxes the business owners will tighten their belt and wont hire just like they arent doing right now....lower taxes across the board for all will in the long run, create jobs...most people are hired by not fortune 500 co's but rather small business owners...it is this group we need to help...get rid of red tape, regulations, and high taxes for them...ask any small business owner and they will tell you the same thing.

2. you want higher revenues for the govt yet want higher taxes...in the "long" run, this will lower tax revenues..and please dont use that simplistic notion that Reagan and Clinton raised taxes and things were great argument because we are in a much different situation right now, things arent that simple.

3. so, since I am stating we need lower taxes for all, you will argue that the govt will shut down and etc given the initial lower tax revenues...well, this is the point that you keep ignoring and never address in your arguments...the govt MUST downsize...no ifs and buts there...they have to get smaller and entitlements need to decrease...this isnt about the rich getting theirs and the rest getting nothing, its about the sustainability of our govt cause if something doesnt change, this system will collapse soon.

And to think we could implement road projects and bridge work is a drop in the bucket...15-20% of the original stimulus bill was supposed to fund public projects but it took them 2 yrs to spend like 30% of it...the govt hired many people just to hire them and to make numbers look good and essentially told them to do nothing...these temp workers were let go and re-hired to make numbers look good..this has been clearly documented....when govt gets involved there will always be inefficiencies...business owners are effecient cause its their money on the line...with govt, it isnt their money, its our money they are gambling with.

There is only one solution, the first step has to be that our govt needs to get smaller and we must learn to be more independent .

BTW, I will accept a higher tax rate for myself if the govt pays back debt with it and proves to me they wont waste it on self entitlements or wars we dont need.












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I'm glad to hear that we agree that more tax cuts aren't the solution. You are right, we don't know what level of debt is sustainable. Which is why we should increase revenue in order to slow debt expansion and buy ourselves more time for the REAL solution to our debt problem --- more jobs.

I could support entitlement reforms for the poor, if they were paired with tax revenue increases on behalf of the wealthy. If granny has to turn down the heat a few degrees in the winter in order to save our country, so should the top 10% of wage earners. And all the folks in between too. But this "cuts only" entitlement reform idea, as if we can fund the rebuilding of our country out of the shallow pockets of the poor, disabled, elderly, and unemployed, while leaving the deep pockets of the wealthy untouched is delusional. No country can rebuild itself using the money out of the pockets of their poor, disabled, elderly, and unemployed. The money just isn't there. If you are looking for money, you have to go where the money is. Looking where the money isn't won't help.

We definitely need to encourage private sector investment in America. I don't have a problem with Public-private partnerships, except when that means that the Profits are privatized, while the Risk is socialized. We've had too much of that already. If we are going to have Public-private partnerships, there need to be protections in place that strictly forbid the private side from profiteering and funneling wealth out of the partnership, leaving the debt to the gov't. That is what happened with Freddie/Fannie.

We have way too much Carrot incentives for businesses, and not enough Stick incentives. Tax haven zones are just another Carrot when we need sticks instead. We need to make it expensive for companies to close a factory in the US, instead of giving them a tax break to close a factory by letting them write off the cost of moving overseas on their taxes. We need to make it expensive for companies to move their corporate headquarters into a mailbox in the Caribbean. We need to make it expensive to renounce your citizenship in order to avoid paying taxes. We need to make it expensive to shuffle profits into offshore straw-subsidiary shell companies, and keep those profits offshore.
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      08-06-2011, 03:22 PM   #27
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1. 3/4 of our GDP is consumer spending...a fact...so if you want to help our economy, consumer spending must go up and this will create jobs correct?...well was TARP 800B, but anyone that knows anything,knows the sum was well into the trillions...govt said they wanted the banks to get healthy so they would make loans to us so we could get into more debt to spend right?.

Well, credit is tighter than ever...they could have given every american 17K rather than TARP and the stimulus and this WOULD have truly stimulated the economy...would have helped mom and pop...but instead the banks got it and didnt ease credit so they did nothing for the avg joe.

2. JP Morgan is THE major shareholder in the Federal Reserve...so, JP Morgan has close to a trillion in derivatives outstanding and they get bailed out to the tunes of trillions(not billions) in reality yet they essentially control the printing presses via the Fed Reserve...now this is the cold stone truth nobody talks about...anyone else have a problem with this????...you see why we are so farked??
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      08-07-2011, 05:42 AM   #28
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Faber's Gloomy Perspective
FRI 05 AUG 11 | 06:33 AM ET

The market has experienced huge technical damage, says Marc Faber, The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report with perspective on yesterday's massive sell-off.



http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000037396
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      08-07-2011, 11:50 AM   #29
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Markets in the middle east are already down 7%. I'm depressed about tomorrow. My retirement and investment portfolio have been hit pretty hard. Oh well, more SPXU and srty no matter how high they rise I'll buy them.
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      08-07-2011, 01:25 PM   #30
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Originally Posted by mact3333 View Post
2. JP Morgan is THE major shareholder in the Federal Reserve...so, JP Morgan has close to a trillion in derivatives outstanding and they get bailed out to the tunes of trillions(not billions) in reality yet they essentially control the printing presses via the Fed Reserve...now this is the cold stone truth nobody talks about...anyone else have a problem with this????...you see why we are so farked??
I always thought that TARP was (to some extent) a charade to cover over the bailout of JPMC. I'm not drawing this conclusion from your post; it's just good that other people are aware that JPMC got bailed out.

I'm figuring that S&P's downgrade is lubricant that makes it easier on the population to swallow either a formal $ devaluation (like the Fed and Treasury actually admit they're doing it) or some type of default. Hope I'm wrong on this though.
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      08-07-2011, 02:05 PM   #31
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The American people and government need something massive to hit them to snap back to reality. I figure after the '08 market massacre, credit defaults and huge lay-offs the people have realized they cannot spend more than they earn. Hopefully the government can catch up because they're still pre-2008.
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      08-07-2011, 02:40 PM   #32
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You guys should watch the Marc Faber video I posted above.

He said basically said we will have a worldwide economic collapse at some point and then a reboot where I guess the global government debt will be sort of discharged but he also predicts a new war somewhere in there.

I don't see any other way out of this, QE 3 just buys more time propping up the stock market and then will make the pain much worse later.
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      08-07-2011, 02:55 PM   #33
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1. 3/4 of our GDP is consumer spending...a fact...so if you want to help our economy, consumer spending must go up and this will create jobs correct?...well was TARP 800B, but anyone that knows anything,knows the sum was well into the trillions...govt said they wanted the banks to get healthy so they would make loans to us so we could get into more debt to spend right?.

Well, credit is tighter than ever...they could have given every american 17K rather than TARP and the stimulus and this WOULD have truly stimulated the economy...would have helped mom and pop...but instead the banks got it and didnt ease credit so they did nothing for the avg joe.

2. JP Morgan is THE major shareholder in the Federal Reserve...so, JP Morgan has close to a trillion in derivatives outstanding and they get bailed out to the tunes of trillions(not billions) in reality yet they essentially control the printing presses via the Fed Reserve...now this is the cold stone truth nobody talks about...anyone else have a problem with this????...you see why we are so farked??
I agree, giving us $17k each would have been a more direct effect for Tarp but that is considered socialism and that is only reserved for banksters, we the people are only allowed capitalism. Any stimulus would always fail if there is no real sustained job growth to take its place.

Regardless, we need a long term solution to get us out of this but since we no longer produce anything in this country except for toxic debt, I don't see any real way out of this. All the choices are extremely painful which no politician would touch and we would probably run out of time anyways.

I love how they tell us how we all need to save more and then give us near zero interest rates and at the same time telling us we need to spend to save the economy.
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      08-08-2011, 06:11 PM   #34
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...lower taxes across the board for all ...

...we need lower taxes for all...
Tax Cut Tourette's strikes again. The answer to everything is always a tax cut, eh? Bull.

But I'm not the guy you need to argue this with anymore. What I say won't impact what Standard and Poor's does to the US credit rating. And they disagree with you.

They specifically talk about increasing revenue, and letting some or all of the Bush Tax Cuts expire. So you can bicker with me all you want, but Standard and Poor's disagrees with you, so you will have to take it up with them if you think they are wrong.
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      08-08-2011, 06:21 PM   #35
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Are you guys still bitching about TARP bailouts for the Banks?? Seriously?

What the heck impact do you seriously think the $98 Billion dollars of TARP bank loans left outstanding had on Standard and Poor's decision to downgrade the US credit rating? More proof that Tea Party Republicans Can't Do Math.



"The Treasury is authorized to spend $475 billion of the TARP. It has created 13 different programs, to which it has promised $470 billion.

The government has committed bailout money to 928 recipients. Those recipients have received a total of $411 billion 141 recipients have returned all of their TARP money, leaving 787 with money still on their books (33 of those have returned a portion). A total of $273 billion has been returned.

The Treasury has been earning a return on most of the TARP money invested or loaned. So far, the total return is: $39 billion. That includes $19 billion through dividend or interest payments and $9 billion through stock warrants, which Treasury received as part of most of the investments. When companies pay back the TARP investment, the warrants are either sold back to the company or auctioned off.

When those revenues are taken into account, $98 billion is the net amount still outstanding."

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      08-08-2011, 11:52 PM   #36
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Tax Cut Tourette's strikes again. The answer to everything is always a tax cut, eh? Bull.

But I'm not the guy you need to argue this with anymore. What I say won't impact what Standard and Poor's does to the US credit rating. And they disagree with you.

They specifically talk about increasing revenue, and letting some or all of the Bush Tax Cuts expire. So you can bicker with me all you want, but Standard and Poor's disagrees with you, so you will have to take it up with them if you think they are wrong.
Do you ever listen to a word I say?...I have said lower taxes is important but if you would have turned on your cranial nerve 8 at all, you would know by far the most important thing we need to do is to make govt SMALLER!!!!...do I need to repeat this?.

You wont answer this because in your heart you know this is true but this goes against liberal politics...decreasing govt spending can only be done by making govt smaller, not increasing taxes...if you increase taxes the economy will suffer.

S and P wants our debt load to decrease., period.

You see, the govt collected 15% of GDP or roughly 2.25 trillion in taxes last yr...if we go to the higher tax rates from the Clinton yrs this rate would go up to 20% of GDP, which would make it 3T...so raising taxes would increase tax revenue by 750B...well the govt is overspending by 2T a yr!!!!...that is where the prob lies...not raising taxes on the rich...and dont even bring up the 2-3T Obama says he is going to reduce the deficit by over the next 10 yrs, that aint happening... we all know its going up by 7T within the next 10 yrs as a conservative estimate.

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      08-08-2011, 11:54 PM   #37
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You are so naive...you really think the banks only got what the govt said it gave out for TARP??...wow.



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Originally Posted by 11Series View Post
Are you guys still bitching about TARP bailouts for the Banks?? Seriously?

What the heck impact do you seriously think the $98 Billion dollars of TARP bank loans left outstanding had on Standard and Poor's decision to downgrade the US credit rating? More proof that Tea Party Republicans Can't Do Math.



"The Treasury is authorized to spend $475 billion of the TARP. It has created 13 different programs, to which it has promised $470 billion.

The government has committed bailout money to 928 recipients. Those recipients have received a total of $411 billion 141 recipients have returned all of their TARP money, leaving 787 with money still on their books (33 of those have returned a portion). A total of $273 billion has been returned.

The Treasury has been earning a return on most of the TARP money invested or loaned. So far, the total return is: $39 billion. That includes $19 billion through dividend or interest payments and $9 billion through stock warrants, which Treasury received as part of most of the investments. When companies pay back the TARP investment, the warrants are either sold back to the company or auctioned off.

When those revenues are taken into account, $98 billion is the net amount still outstanding."
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      08-09-2011, 01:43 AM   #38
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You are so naive...you really think the banks only got what the govt said it gave out for TARP??...wow.
You are the one who keeps confusing the Government with the Fed Bank, which is private.

Wow.
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      08-09-2011, 01:52 AM   #39
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Much of what you said was already covered in this thread between pman and I. So I did not re-state what I already stated because I figured you knew how to read. Go back and read the f*ing thread if you want to read what I've already covered. I'm not going to re-type it because of your reading fail.


Making gov't smaller means firing people in the middle of a jobs crisis. Again, already covered, read the f*ing thread.

S and P wants revenues along with spending cuts. Their statement is posted earlier. Read the f*ing thread.


Again, if you want a tax-cut and spending-cut ONLY solution, the S and P disagees with you. So it isn't ME you need to convince, because it's the S and P that repeatedly brought up more revenue and ending Bush tax cuts.



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Do you ever listen to a word I say?...I have said lower taxes is important but if you would have turned on your cranial nerve 8 at all, you would know by far the most important thing we need to do is to make govt SMALLER!!!!...do I need to repeat this?.

You wont answer this because in your heart you know this is true but this goes against liberal politics...decreasing govt spending can only be done by making govt smaller, not increasing taxes...if you increase taxes the economy will suffer.

S and P wants our debt load to decrease., period.

You see, the govt collected 15% of GDP or roughly 2.25 trillion in taxes last yr...if we go to the higher tax rates from the Clinton yrs this rate would go up to 20% of GDP, which would make it 3T...so raising taxes would increase tax revenue by 750B...well the govt is overspending by 2T a yr!!!!...that is where the prob lies...not raising taxes on the rich...and dont even bring up the 2-3T Obama says he is going to reduce the deficit by over the next 10 yrs, that aint happening... we all know its going up by 7T within the next 10 yrs as a conservative estimate.
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      08-09-2011, 02:13 AM   #40
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Do you ever listen to a word I say? if you would have turned on your cranial nerve at all...do I need to repeat this? You wont answer this because this goes against liberal politics. You are so naive...you really think the banks only got what the govt said it gave out for TARP??...wow.
Yeah, you're never rude or demeaning.

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the most important thing we need to do is to make govt SMALLER!!!!
...and you never spew bumper-sticker knee-jerk party-line rhetoric.

Let's get this out of the way: No republican administration ever made govt smaller; not Bush 2, or Bush 1, or Reagan. In fact, Bush 2 added all sorts of departments and czars. Likewise, Obama & Clinton have not made govt larger; this is just an old GOP talking point. I'll acknowledge that many fiscal conservatives (repub or dem) would like to reduce certain govt programs, but it's not actually going to happen at a federal level. While a libertarian such as Ron Paul would certainly reduce the size of govt, he stands a snowball's chance in hell of getting into a position to do so.

Therefore, saying "smaller govt" is like waiting for Santa Claus. And it's not because of "liberals" - defense spending, social security, and medicaire are not driven by the left. We need solutions that fit within the framework of our existing system.
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      08-09-2011, 10:12 AM   #41
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You are the one who keeps confusing the Government with the Fed Bank, which is private.

Wow.
lol...I have given you lectures on the Fed Reserve...I would bet my last penny you didnt know jack about the Fed Reserve until I started harping on it here...ya see, you know just enough to be dangerous...
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      08-09-2011, 10:14 AM   #42
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The Quote of the Decade

“The fact that we are here today to debate raising America's debt limit is a sign of leadership failure. It is a sign that the US Government can not pay its own bills. It is a sign that we now depend on ongoing financial assistance from foreign countries to finance our Government's reckless fiscal policies. Increasing America's debt weakens us domestically and internationally. Leadership means that, "the buck stops here.' Instead, Washington is shifting the burden of bad choices today onto the backs of our children and grandchildren. America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership. Americans deserve better.”
-- Senator Barack H. Obama, March 2006
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      08-09-2011, 11:49 AM   #43
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The Quote of the Decade

“The fact that we are here today to debate raising America's debt limit is a sign of leadership failure. It is a sign that the US Government can not pay its own bills. It is a sign that we now depend on ongoing financial assistance from foreign countries to finance our Government's reckless fiscal policies. Increasing America's debt weakens us domestically and internationally. Leadership means that, "the buck stops here.' Instead, Washington is shifting the burden of bad choices today onto the backs of our children and grandchildren. America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership. Americans deserve better.”
-- Senator Barack H. Obama, March 2006

Yes, Obama was right in 2006 about the Republican "Don't Tax and Spend Even More" fiscal policies that turned a surplus into a deficit. Everything Obama said in 2006 is still right about the same Republican economic policies that are still in place due to Republican filibusters and repeated threats of shutting down the entire government.

Now we've got failed Tea Party Republican leaders who will shut down the government, saying they got 90% of what they wanted, who have taken the country hostage and forced us into repeating the same Republican policies that got us here in the first place.
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      08-09-2011, 12:38 PM   #44
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Yes, Obama was right in 2006 about the Republican "Don't Tax and Spend Even More" fiscal policies that turned a surplus into a deficit. Everything Obama said in 2006 is still right about the same Republican economic policies that are still in place due to Republican filibusters and repeated threats of shutting down the entire government.

Now we've got failed Tea Party Republican leaders who will shut down the government, saying they got 90% of what they wanted, who have taken the country hostage and forced us into repeating the same Republican policies that got us here in the first place.
So wait... one side won't cut back entitlements. The other side won't allow higher taxes. But only one side is at fault?

If I want to go to the movies and you want to go to the baseball game and we end up doing nothing. Is it my fault for wanting to go to the movies? Or is it your fault for wanting to see a ball game? Is one more valuable or important than the other?

The word is compromise. Neither side was willing to do it. You have the left saying the right won't compromise and the right saying the left won't compromise. That tells me they are all being pig-headed. If you choose to blame one side over the other you are simply showing an ignorance bred from bias.
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