[burrito007]

Ok so everyone is saying that the M3 will be unobtainable for the first year of production. I personally would like to hold out some hope so this analysis is of course biased.

My thinking:
BMW wants to sell 100,000 m3s in the U.S. market. The lifecycle of the previous M3 was 6 years. This works out ot roughly 1667 cars / year. Figure that is 1389 cars/month. Dividing the cars up equally between coasts, and equally between north/south gets 347 cars per quadrant, although I would think the northeast is the bigger market. There are 129 BMW dealers within a 500 mile radius of NYC. This being the case, that would mean each dealer gets 3 cars/month. (assuming some of these dealers are big enough to get that many, and I would expect the ones around NYC to get more). The lists probably top out right now around 20 people. (all of whom will definitely not buy the car). So in the first 5 months the list should be exhausted (assuming that 75% of the people on the list buy the car) By august there should be an ample number of M3s around. If There are 5 m3s on average given to dealers around the NYC area (not very far from possible) this number goes down to 3 months.

If someone can work these numbers better just let me know. I had to assume a lot of things such as the number of dealers in the area, the % car sales distribution, and how many cars the dealers will get /month.

Overall with that 100,000 figure it would seem the m3 is going to be plentiful.