Quote:
Originally Posted by Fundguy1
Yes. What I'm saying is if you are a car maker, there's a big pie out there of customers, aND you want your slice. Gas powered cats are 99.6% of the pie. Ev 0.4% of the pie. To say you have 40mm potential EV customers is fine. But to convert potential EV customers, you need an EV sales increase of 16,000%. Not happening anytime soon. Also think about the reality of what you are saying. China and India are two of the largest and fastest growing car markets. Ev cars appeal to technogeeks and greenies. Neither of which are in either country. And you think it's hard to find a place to charge in the US? Try rural China.
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Battery tech has recently made EVs cost competitive with ICE cars. The tech will continue to improve, reducing costs (1/3 cost of EV is battery) while increasing performance and range. But ICE car tech can not keep pace in value per dollar. This is important to realize. It'll be not just an "electric car", but an overall less expensive car to produce which offers more value. Why would a consumer not buy the car offering better value? As Musk said, "Even if you get no options, this [Model 3] will be the best car you can buy."
Again, BMW's market is well known. It is not and never was that whole pie.
Their bread and butter is an "entry level" luxury vehicle with certain features (performance, comfort, aesthetics, tech) at a certain price point. Their primary competition at the moment is Mercedes and Audi. However with Tesla Model 3's being cheaply produced (for "greenies" and "tech geeks" and millions in other demographics that want quality/performance for their dollar) @ 500k units/yr starting in 2018 with target market being the 3-series (with Merc and Audi affected as well), we have quite a different story on EV competition. The main point is that these EV cars will be available
well before BMW can answer with a competitive EV. These short sighted decisions will result in significant lost revenue for BMW.