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      05-13-2013, 01:34 AM   #6
V8FunNaturally
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Drives: Regensburg Factory E92M3
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: NA

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Quote:
Originally Posted by hickuptruck View Post
Looking at Autotrader though, prices have gone up since Jan./Feb. There are still people with 08's with well over 30-40k miles asking $38-40k. The used market for E92/90 M3s sucks right now.
These curves are up to date for selling prices as of beginning of may. The curves where lower in jan/feb you are right. As for autotrader keep in mind that at any point in time overpriced listings inventory will always outnumber well priced listings. That is because they take longer to sell. But inventory is not availability. In fact more well priced will sell than you can account for by just looking at inventory at any point in time. It's a typical buyer's mistake to take a weighted average of all asking prices and then take a few thousands off that and think that's a fair price. Doing that you will overshoot average selling prices. You have to account for how long a listing has been online. It's the same for real estate.

In flow theory : Inventory = selling rate * latency

Inventory = how many cars currently listed for sale
selling rate = how many cars sell each day
latency = how many days on autotrader before selling

Assume 50% are overpriced and 50% well priced and that overall the market is well balanced between demand and supply so that selling rate is fairly constant. Then,

Inventory_overpriced = selling_Rate * latency_overpriced
Inventory_wellpriced = selling_Rate * latency_wellpriced

if latency_overpriced = 15 days and latency_wellpriced = 3 days then you will see 5 times more overpriced car on autotrader at any given time. And yet the ratio of sold car will be 1 overpriced for each well priced. not 5 to 1.

Last edited by V8FunNaturally; 05-13-2013 at 01:42 AM..
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