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I am not sure it is so simple. If you run a high concentration of meth to water, it is an octane enhancer and these cars will advance timing to take advantage of the higher octane. This was proven by pencilgeek running race gas and dynoing. These cars also have full time WB02 with target AFR so they can adjust the fuel to meet the target.
What I do agree with is that you would want less water in winter and probably less meth also -- after all, with significant IAT drop from the colder weather, detonation is also a little less likely. With no other changes, our cars make more power in winter than in summer, which is why dyno results are standardized to a more summer like temp for SAE. Your uncorrected results on the dyno are what you are actually making given the weather conditions.
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