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      12-18-2010, 07:43 PM   #1
swamp2
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Drives: E92 M3
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Lightbulb Next Gen 2014 (F32) M3 Performance Simulations/Predictions - She'll Be Fast!


At a glance - F32 M3 Performance Predictions:

  • 0-60 mph: 3.7 - 3.9 s
  • 0-100 mph: 8.6 - 8.8 s
  • 0-200 kph: 13.2 - 13.6 s (for our metric friends!)
  • 1/4 mi time: 11.9 - 12.1 s
  • 1/4 mi trap: 116 - 119 mph
  • top speed: 190 - 193 mph (of course true, not indicated, indicated should be just shy of 200 mph)
  • Nurburgring Nordschleife lap time (SportAuto): 7:53-7:58

Now that we have a pretty good idea of the next generation F32 M3s engine I wanted to try to answer the performance question. Weight was a key missing factor. Even though we don't have any really good guesses for the next 3er base model weight, I did find one figure. It is actually LESS than the existing base 3er, which is consistent with BMWs claims. Finally real weight savings rather than minimizing weight growth! This is also impressive since the new 3er is going to be a bit bigger than the existing car. I also looked at the rumors, speculation and released information about the new F10 M5 as well as what BMW achieved for the 1M.

Now you might argue the specifics of my calculations and BMW very well might not do all of the things I've mentioned. But my approach here is to bracket mean values with realistic ranges and then put those into a physics based vehicle performance simulation (I use CarTest). CarTest has been show to be accurate within a couple tenths on most key performance metrics and within a couple mph on speed results.

The weight estimate I was able to locate for the new 3er is here. Sure not the best nor most reliable source of automotive rumors and intelligence, but again a start. I do know I have read other places that the next gen car will be lighter than the current model. Perhaps BMW is indeed getting more serious and productive under its Efficient Dynamics efforts.

In short I do think the F32 M3 will also be lighter than the existing model. Somewhere in the range of about 3490 - 3650 lb curb weight.

The F32 "N55" (N55 variant technically) version engine will also be about 100 lb lighter than the existing S65 engine, contributing to the overall savings in a big way.



OK on to performance now. I have used what I feel are realist ranges for power, torque, weight, parasitic losses, aerodynamic constants, gearing, etc. Here ar the inputs I've used in CarTest.




I did not bother to customize the torque and power curves as CarTest does a reasonable good job of fitting a realistic curve given the information about the rpm peaks for torque and hp. Thanks to member Pete_vB for some solid educated guesses on some of these values in another thread.

Below are the results from the nominal (best guess) simulation as well as some bracketing analysis to get best and worst case scenarios. For those I have simply used the bracketed values for power, torque, redline, rpm, weight, aero, etc. as mentioned above.




In short: (not the exact bracketed values shown, as I have applied some further guessing/filtering and knowledge about how well CarTest can actually predict)

F32 M3 Performance Predictions:

  • 0-60 mph: 3.7 - 3.9 s
  • 0-100 mph: 8.6 - 8.8 s
  • 0-200 kph: 13.2 - 13.6 s (for our metric friends!)
  • 1/4 mi time: 11.9 - 12.1 s
  • 1/4 mi trap: 116 - 119 mph
  • top speed: 190 - 193 mph (of course true, not indicated, indicated should be just shy of 200 mph)

Just for the sake of comparison, this puts the car very close to the Porsche 997 GT3 (of course for straight line results...)

Last but not least, based on prior regression analysis work by member Lucid and myself here on Nurburgring lap time vs. power to weight, I will even offer a prediction here.

Nurburgring Nordschleife lap time (SportAuto): 7:53-7:58
. Of course this assumes the car does not get something close to race rubber.

I suspect the new car is still way too far in the future for folks to get too excited, but perhaps this will still stimulate some good discussion. Cheers.

Last edited by swamp2; 12-18-2010 at 08:33 PM.