i used to have an evo 9 modded they will definitely give an m3 a run for its money..mine had ~400WHP and i pulled on an m3 from a roll...i still would take an e92 m3 any day over an evo. As for stock vs. stock the dig will still be fairly close with the m3 pulling about halfway through the race and winning. The roll stock vs stock the m3 will win but if the evo driver knows the right gear to be in and knows how to drive it wont be a lopsided win.
PS: be careful with evo guys they all say they just have an exhaust meanwhile they have exhaust intake and tune which will be right around 340-350WHP.(they might even have more mods, i used to be one of them!)