Yes, you can buy the car at the end of the lease, but they frown on it as no warranty exists unless you buy one. Also, BMW does not want to negotiate the end of lease price, as many others do. BMW would rather taket the car back and re-lease it for another 3/4 years including a 100k mile "certified preowned warranty"
I did think about my scenario falling through with a worse depreciation than expected. Assuming you are correct, and the car depreciates unexpectedy I will have to come up with cash to get rid of it. However, a straight lease of $8,550 down and $998/month (as quoted by my dealer) leaves me spending $44,478 for 3 years usage. My scenario I spend $750/mo with appx $12,500 out of pocket = appx $40,000 spent over 3 years.
Therefore, I have to be wrong by more than $4,478 for this to work out worse than a lease. Moreover, I will save 8.65% (NYS tax rate) with the trade in value toward a new car. This gives me an additional some odd $3,500 in my pocket when I get a new car in 11. I don't think my numbers will be off by $8k. If they are off by $8k- then there was not advantage to purchasing in this car.
CURRENTLY: 2014 MB E63AMG-S, CF package loaded, Weistec 725hp ECU on order, Dado downpipes; 2014 BMW X5 50i ||| FORMERLY: 2008 E60 M5 ||| 2011 X5 50i, ECU upgrade to 485hp, LOADED ||| 2009 BMW 335xi, jb4 map5, downpipes, spings, etc. |||