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      11-18-2007, 11:36 AM   #18
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Drives: E36 M3, E92 M3
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Dallas/Ft. Worth

iTrader: (4)

Originally Posted by swamp2 View Post
Sure, I agree all the talk (though much of it sarcasm) about a $75-$80k base is pure ridiculousness. However, so is mid to low 50's, IMHO. Furthermore, I would not exactly call AMG cars "specialty" or low volume vehicles any longer. These cars are selling in quite high volumes these days. Pricing is set by competition, greed and desired sales volume. If the main competitors and base prices are:

IS-F: low $50's k (est)
C63 AMG: $63k (est.)
RS4: $66k
911: $73.5k

Why would BMW come in in the mid to low 50's? As much of a good performer the Lexus has already shown to be, I don't think BMW has to worry about it stealing too much market share. Different demographic, different "league" in most folks minds (yes there are many badge whores out there and those who will buy on reputation alone). Sure they can not discount the IS-F totally and that should indeed be a factor that will push the price lower. By the way anyone have any better estimates than those above?

Hmmm looking at that list why not charge high 50's, keep it less expensive by a healthy couple of grand than the two closest competitors, keep it just below the important psychological barrier of $60k and meet both goals of besting most of your competitors on price and besting them as being the best drivers car as well? This sounds like the forumula for success to me.

So like I have said over and over I think the real question is can they push the price just above $60k or will they keep it just below $60k? I think discussions far outside of this range are simply personal fantasy and false hope.

One last detail. Consider the poll results. I am not saying a poll can predict a price but it should be reasonable. Only 1 in 8 (12.5%) believe the car will come in less than $55k. The mean and median are both in the very high 50's. I suppose you could also argue here that I, the author of that poll, skewed the results by posting the range constructed the way I did. It is a fair/possible criticism but only if there is much of a chance for a low 50's price.
Okay I will give you my real reasoning.....

Your points are well made but I still stand by my estimate of 57K. Which by the way is more than what Military Sales is expecting by 2-3K grand. I think I have told this before but the estimates Military Sales uses come from BMW. The discount price of 49K through Military Sales is the required price given to the various BMW Military Sales programs in order to establish a contract with a given Military Customer. Thus this explains why both BMW Military Sales programs that I know use the same estimate. Those of us on this program already have signed orders for the car. Granted, the contract stipulates that the price may increase or decrease when official pricing is announced.

Also, the Military Sales estimates rarely are off by more than 1-2 grand. For example, the estimated price for the 335i through Mil Sales was right on. Another example, a fellow Marine asked me to find out what the Military Sales price was for the 135i about a month ago. My sales rep told me that they were taking pre-orders at around 31K with the discount. Without the 5-6% discount you get about 33k as the estimated price. So Mil Sales was off by about 2K for the 135i.

In my personal opinion BMW is going to have the last laugh on this one. The faults that exist in the new M3 could almost be overlooked at a 55K price tag or even at 57K. Although I also believe the 55-57K MSRP will be with almost no standard options. Not even leather. If leather and 19" were standard like on the RS4 then that alone would push the MSRP to over 60K (with my $56,999 estimate) but we both know that both those options are not standard. That alone makes me think the MSRP is going to be less than 60K.

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