Originally Posted by mact3333
Hope you guys do yourselves a favor and go to defcon 3-4 now....we will be making all time highs soon...mom and pop are are getting testy and feeling foolish they let this 4 yr bull get away from them and cant take it no more...money mkt mutual funds are being emptied out as we speak and being piled into the equity mkts...once we take out 1575 on SPX you will see a explosive rise to 1650-1700...then the bottom falls out...mark my words.
Please save this post...I have popcorn in hand already.
Once mom and pop enter, the top is always near...will be pulling the kids 529 money out of mkts and into money mkt within next few wks...dont need to try to catch that last 5-10% of the rally...one thing for sure, it comes down 10 times as fast as it goes up and most will be too dumbfounded to react quickly enough when it happens.
A year from now, the sentiment will have definitely have changed.
Anyone that has followed my posts in the past with respect to the big picture anyway knows whether I have been accurate or not....I called for all time highs a long time ago when many werent that super bullish...the opposite will hold true this time.
Watch the news within the next few wks to a month...you will see euphoria on epic scale on CNBC and the talking heads will be crying out "this mkt cant be stopped"...wherever you feel euphoric from big gains and the last thing you want to do is sell, well that is usually a good time to sell.
Not sure what the news will be to start the selling later this yr...I say later this yr and not a month from now cause when we enter a bear, volatility will start to rise sharply on up and down days...day ranges will expand from 1530 pt's a day to 30-40...watch for it.
Bottoms tend to be a point, tops are choppy zig zags until it finally gives way.
And dont ask me where the ultimate bottom will be ...you guys can figure that out but know it wont be pretty.
I'm curious to know what you have to reinforce this view. Not that I disagree, Mact, but these types of posts need more filler details otherwise they'll come off in a "fear-mongering" way to others.
My view is we see a whipsaw most of March, perhaps a sizeable (10%) decline from there (April?), followed by a run to all-time highs (could be your 1650, who knows) for the rest of the year.