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      02-20-2013, 09:59 PM   #1263
Vanity
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Drives: BMW E90 LCI
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: BC, Canada


Posts: 123
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Quote:
Originally Posted by slamako View Post
Vanity--are you setting up at TVIX trade? I'm eyeing that this week. Volitility at an all time low and with sequestration looming, I'm sure some Vol will get kicked back in.

The only kicker is how much government intervention (money printing) will suppress the volitility.

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Lastly-anybody else here a subscriber to TastyTrade?
Just happened to click the thread and saw my name! After the +10 move in SPX yesterday I exited my vol short position. I was expecting a dip today but I don't think anyone saw -20 SPX points today. Here's the kicker. Today the index lost -1.25% but cash VIX popped 19%. Not sure if you're familiar with vol but that is much too high of a jump. Usually correlated around +5-9% on the spot VIX when the index sells off 1% like this. Instead, we saw +19% which means we either go to hell tomorrow to justify this VIX pop (another -20 point day) or this vol is coming down. Here's a fact though: 10% of the VIX call volume was from ONE very large trader. This trader SOLD his long vol positions into the close today, which tells me even he realizes this was overdone today. I am short fol as of the close of the index. XIV @ $21.98. Time stamped.

Quote:
Originally Posted by r0wr View Post
Rotation is just barley starting: out of hi betas, into staples (KO, MCD), and into other dividend paying stocks (safer). If you haven't closed out some of your longs, now is the time to do so. We're in for a correction. IMO, today's decline is considered a buy and we'll try one more time up before we see a true top.
Vol would agree with you. If we get a flat to up day tmr, $vix could drop 6-12%, driving down futures by a lesser amount (probably 4-8%). This would hurt the most people. We would run up again, make a second lower high and then kaboom (possibility). $vix spike might have just been a warning flare, not the actual Calvary yet.

P.s. never touch TVIX, the vehicle does not track it's NAV correctly and will piss you off trying to capitalize on VIX spikes. Go with VXX. Never touch 2x Vix etfs unless you seriously want to not be able to cover your losses when it goes down.
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