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      01-26-2013, 04:10 AM   #1213
Vanity
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mact3333 View Post

This thread was started by me to use technical analysis to establish entry and exit points based on a theory...doesnt really matter if you are right or wrong, just have to take a stand based on charts , a theory and maybe even fundamentals...but one thing you should do on this thread is the have the balls to take a position and announce your entry point so it has a time stamp..."I am up 50% in 2 wks" is meaningless unless you timestamp your entry cause anyone can say I am up 50% and you might be not be making it up if you take a small meaningless position in many stocks and you post the one that sticks.

I want to see charts or some form of data to show "why" you took the position...that is the true value of this thread...for others to learn different trading styles and theories.

Some people use Elliott Wave, some cycles work, some pure technical analysis, some use Dow Theory and some sentiment indicators(I like this form of trading myself).

GL ...imho if you wanmt to make money this yr you better have a long bias.
Thanks for calling me out. If anyone is curious, I do derivatives trading on futures markets. I initiated the position Dec. 28th, 2012. It revolved around shorting the VIX. I've had people PM me for more information on this return and what I did. I can say this now, and listen up Mact, I didn't use Technical Analysis on this. It was straight raw fundamentals.

There were no "charts" or lines that I graphed out for this position. There were no "resistance" or "support" levels. There was no analyzing of fib levels, MACD's, Stochastics, etc. No Technicals, at all. Period. This gain came from straight-up understanding term structures, valuations, and excessive premiums. The position was initiated with the full-understanding that an excess of premium had built up in the VIX term structure. I shorted it with 110% leverage. I was absolutely confident the trade would pan out, as it fundamentally should have. TA would have made me completely miss this trade. That I am completely confident of. TA may work for you and what you're doing, but for this particular trade it would not have.

And you were incorrect about the 50% return. It's now 60%. I did hit a high of 67% this week, but there was a slight pull back in my position. As always, I give you a snapshot of my entire portfolio's M.W.R. There were no other positions in my account. And considering I went 110% leverage, you can be sure I put my money where my mouth is, and then some.


P.S. Maximum drawdown on this position has been at 10%.








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