Another way to look at these maintenance programs is to analyze them from the standpoint of a bet.
BMW is betting you $3300 that you will not require $3300 worth of maintenance from them. You pay them $3300 BMW gives you a promise. You are at a disadvantage in this bet because BMW knows the performance & longevity characteristics of each component of your car. You don't. That's why they are even in this game. In other words, do you think BMW would even enter this bet unless they were certain the odds were in there favor that, in the end, they are going to walk away with lots of your money in there pocket?
By the way, the E9 series M3 was rated by, I think, Consumers Report as, among all BMW models, the model with the lowest maintenance cost. I wish I could remember the issue date. They were comparing maintenance costs between manufacturers and this little fact about the M3 was treated as a footnote.