Originally Posted by rgrovr
Gallup polls are out today and after the supposed slaughter of the Dem convention, they are tied at 46% a piece (with yet still an oversampling of Dems).
Romney is on offense on more states Obama won in 2008 (which is the same model Obama used to defeat McCain) so the electoral map is a wash since the toss ups will determine the election, not the coastal states.
And the environment is not conducive to the President, at all. I don't see unemployment improving in 6 weeks. I can see another embassy ransacked potentially. I can see Israel attacking Iran potentially. I can see America getting demeaned repeatedly at the UN assembly next week. I can see the Osama kill movie further enraging Muslims.
Sprinkle all that together and the outcome of the debates will settle the issue for the electorate imo - and in that, there is just no way to squirm out of the record of that past four years when being engaged mano-a-mano (not that the moderators wont try).
We all know that general matchup polls mean absolutely nothing to the election. It's all about the state by state polls. Penn is not even being contested by Romney. Michigan was never as close as a couple of polls suggested. Obamas lead in OH is coming back strong. Virginia's changing demographic means that it's harder for Romney to get. And the newer polls suggest that it's moving away from Romney. Florida is leaning slightly for Obama also. Basically, he's up in almost every swing state minus Missourri, NC and maybe Iowa (?). All he needs is Penn (which he has), Mich, and OH and it's over. And you could sub OH for Colorado and Iowa.
Keep in mind that I'm writing this from my phone and Im trying to feed dinner to my two little ones so I dont have time to run numbers at web sites, but I think you'll find them pretty accurate. Romneys road to 270 is very hard since he is behind in most of the swing states and Obama is already so close to 270.