Originally Posted by secretsquirrel
The 2010 elections were really a referendum on the economy that was just beginning to bottom out. The Democrats got most of the brunt of the fallout, but obviously the economy is a beast that takes a long time to turn around but they were the party in power.
This election is not close and was never really that close. Obama has had a large electoral lead for several months over Romney. The electoral count is gonna be a landslide victory for Obama.
As to why he isn't winning by 20 points: Politics is too partisan for a candidate to lose by that amount.
Gallup polls are out today and after the supposed slaughter of the Dem convention, they are tied at 46% a piece (with yet still an oversampling of Dems).
Romney is on offense on more states Obama won in 2008 (which is the same model Obama used to defeat McCain) so the electoral map is a wash since the toss ups will determine the election, not the coastal states.
And the environment is not conducive to the President, at all. I don't see unemployment improving in 6 weeks. I can see another embassy ransacked potentially. I can see Israel attacking Iran potentially. I can see America getting demeaned repeatedly at the UN assembly next week. I can see the Osama kill movie further enraging Muslims.
Sprinkle all that together and the outcome of the debates will settle the issue for the electorate imo - and in that, there is just no way to squirm out of the record of that past four years when being engaged mano-a-mano (not that the moderators wont try).