Originally Posted by BKsBimmer
Based on all the common wisdom the republicans should not just be winning, they should be crushing the President and walking away with this with election hands down and yet they are not. What that tells me is that this election is unusual for a number of reasons and the facts and numbers that would normally decide this election are not as relevent as they might otherwise be. Mitt Romney is one of the weakest presidential candidates ever to run for office and it shows. This election will be very close but I give the president the advantage, though it's slight, unless something major happens between now and November, which is certainly possible.
I would encourage you to take a peek at the polls prior to the 1980 election for this same time frame 2 months out to the that election. Carter was up on Reagan 44 to 40 and got as high as 47-39 in Carters favor (Gallup Polls 1936-2000
Much was stated about Carter's likeability edge and Reagan's supposed vacillation on issues (he used to be a Dem). The 2012 and 1980 election are eerily similar. I'm not saying we're in for a Repub landslide, but Romney is better suited financially, is on offense on Obama states he won last time, has a significant lead with Independents which offsets Obama's edge with women, and Dem enthusiasm is no where near 2008 levels.
Plus 23 Dem Senate seats are up versus 10 for Republicans, so the Dems have lots more to defend than Repubs and are ahead in polling on the majority of those competitive races.
And with 2010 being the last election we can measure as a bellweather for partisan breakdown and GOTV efforts. Republicans are well positioned to win and win decisively imo.