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      07-17-2012, 10:30 PM   #1
overdose
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Drives: 2013 E92 M3
Join Date: Jul 2012
Location: San Francisco, CA

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Post Used E9x M3 Price Modeling ('08-'12)

For the past couple months I've been looking to buy an E92 M3 (new or used). I quickly found there was no single resource people could consult for E9x prices. Since I work in a data intensive field I thought it'd be fun to create a very crude formula to help members see how their offers compared with those before them.

My objective for this thread is to help other members make a smart purchasing decision for a USED E9x M3 with a simple equation. Also, at the very end of this post I'll share some interesting insights about M3post.com users that I found.

ABOUT THE DATA
There is a total of 166 data points and they're all pulled from this post...how much did you pay for your used m3? The first purchasing date goes back to December 2008 and the most recent in July 2012. I collected model years, model type, transmission type, miles at time of purchase, exterior color and of course price.

Even a small survey like this can get pretty complicated so for the sake of simplicity I excluded a bunch of variables (options/packages, negotiation skills of the individual, location of purchase, taxes, etc). I also excluded people who couldn't follow directions (new cars, older models, no transmission listed, etc). Also, for those who posted Canadian dollars I converted them to USD on 7/16/2012 without adjusting for inflation or historical currency exchange rates.

Lastly, it's important to note this was a voluntary submission from M3post members so it may not represent the entire pricing population.

THE EQUATION
If you remember basic algebra then this should be pretty simple for you. Here's the pricing equation with x being the number of miles on the car:

ESTIMATED PRICE = -0.3001x + 54146

Thus, an M3 with 20,000 miles on it would be priced at approximately $48,144. And since the standard error is 5472, a very lucky person could pay as low as $42,672. On the other hand, someone who doesn't care about negotiating (or lives in an area with a higher standard of living...or it includes all the possible packages...or etc) could pay as much as $53,616.

Of course, if you don't want to do the math you can just look it up in the image below.


To those who purchased and didn't participate in the discussion...does the equation work out?

All that being said and done, I'd like to point out that the M3post community is what makes this forum thrive. If you have a question about the price of your specific offer, go ahead and ask - don't be afraid! This formula is far from being gospel as it doesn't account for a TON of other factors.

INTERESTING TIDBITS
In my opinion, this is the best part as it gives a glimpse into the M3post community. Without further ado, out of 166 members who bought a used E9x M3...

Model Year
2008 = 64%
2009 = 21%
2010 = 6%
2011 = 9%

Model Type
E90 = 38%
E92 = 51%
E93 = 11%

Transmission Type
6MT = 52%
DCT = 48%

Exterior Color
No Color Specified = 27%
Alpine White = 20%
Jerez Black = 17%
Jet Black = 10%
Space Gray = 7%
Interlagos Blue = 5%
Silverstone = 4%
Melbourne Red = 4%
Sparkling Graphite = 4%
Dakar Yellow = 1%
LeMans Blue = 1%

I'll let you make your own conclusions on what this says about our members haha.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Thank you to the 166 members who posted their purchasing information over the past 2 years. This survey obviously would not exist if it weren't for you all.

FINAL THOUGHTS
I love doing this sort of geeky stuff so if you'd like to see another one on a larger scale that includes options, packages and whatever else just let me know (granted there is enough demand).

Finally, if you want me to narrow down an equation for super specific options (2008, E92 AW, 6MT, 12k miles) then just PM me.
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2013 BMW E92 M3
2009 Lexus IS250