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      05-21-2012, 05:18 PM   #920
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Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: BC, Canada

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Let's see how we've done so far:

March 16th, 2012, I posted telling you guys a top was forming, indeed it was a blow-off top formation occuring. From the months April and onwards thus far, we have not had a bull rally to new highs.
Originally Posted by Vanity View Post
Anybody noticing the blow-off top formation?

SPX saw 120% volume relative to last 10-day avg volume. Dumb money is getting in on the top. Insiders have been selling since Feb, picking up selling pace from 6:1 in Feb, to now 7:1 in March, and most recently at 13:1.

I really do believe 2012 is going to mirror 2008.

Food for thought. Trade accordingly. I believe the months from April - September will be really rough. This is all my opinion so everyone hear should research and tinker it to their investment needs.

March 28th, 2012: I posted to tell you guys about record insider selling. The selling was at panic levels, with the dollar ratio of Sell:Buy being 44:1.
Originally Posted by Vanity View Post
Morning Bulls!

Insider Selling

"The ratio of insider selling to insider buying is even more pronounced on a value basis, hitting its highest level in a year recently, according to data from Thomson Reuters. Taking the total market into account, insiders sold $44.77 worth of stock for every dollar they bought in February. That's the highest insider sell-to-buy ratio since February 2011, when it hit $44.53 to $1."

That is all.

March 29th, 2012, the day after. Watching for the top to form possibly around 1414, it forms three days later April 2nd at 1422. Previously, I wrote that from April onwards I believed we were headed for a rough period. We topped out at the start of April, and began the descent.
Originally Posted by Vanity View Post
Standing by to see whether or not a top has just formed. Pointed out a couple days ago of a blow-off top formation. We will know soon if 1414 is the top for spx.

April 5th, 2012, top is confirmed and I advised everyone here to liquidate longs and protect profits.
Originally Posted by Vanity View Post
Not sure about you guys but, in my opinion, now would be a good time to lock in the profits from your longs. It's about to become deja vu all over again soon. We hit 1430 region on ES and have not come anywhere close to that since, signaling a top is most likely in place. 1400 is now turning into resistance again. Will be interesting to see what happens.

April 18th, 2012, I wrote about how Goldman Sachs' VAR was signalling the company's contraction in portfolio size to minimize downward risk. I had previously written about insiders ditching holdings at panic levels, and also dumb money getting in at the top. The entire month of April was a consolidation period whereby large and commercial speculators were liquidating longs quite heavily. As you see on the chart, April went nowhere. Big Boys were trading bags with retail investors daily, preparing for the decline. I also wrote about the one-day decline in AAPL being a telling sign of liquidation.

Originally Posted by Vanity View Post
Goldman adds caution to risk appetite

Hey guys, here's an update to let you guys get a clue of where the big-boys are standing in the game relative to us.

Goldman Sachs Value at Risk per annum:
2007-2008 = ~$158 Million, reduced risk exposure on it's portfolio before the crisis hit.
2009 = $218 Million, took on ~40% more risk appetite as we rebounded sharply upwards in 09.

Q1 2011 = $113 Million, before the Eurozone crisis
Q4 2011 = $135 Million, when markets bottomed, GS put more money
to work riding the wave up. About an additional 20% more of
their portfolio relative to year-start.

So where is Goldman putting it's money to work now?

Q1 2012 = $95 Million. That's $40 Million down from $135 Million, or about a depreciation of 30%. That's right. Goldman has just taken out 30% of their portfolio and in the VaR you can see this risk decreasing by 30% from 135M last quarter to 95M this quarter. Risk appetite at GS is at a 5-year low. Risk-assumed is even lower than just before the Financial Crisis of 08'

Now, this is my own opinion, I think the 4.5% sell-off we had in AAPL the other day was indication of the big-pros pulling out. Think about it, how much money has to leave AAPL for it to sell-off 4.5% when the markets were having an UP day? -4.5% is huge.

Food for thought.

May 4th, 2012, I post telling you guys, after notifying you of large specs dumping stocks, that the only net Long in this market now were the Small Speculators (retail investors). I said that Large and Comm Specs were now the ones fully net short, and if the market were to dive now, it would dive real fast. This is why last week in Options expiration week, which usually ends positive (a fact drilled in on CNBS to the sheeplings), we did NOT end positive but instead ended down.

Originally Posted by Vanity View Post
I also want to tell you guys that small speculators are now the only group net Long this market. Commercial and large speculators are all net short. This doesn't happen very often, but when it does it's "typically" a losing hand for small specs. I say typically because small specs can win, but usually they don't. So if we start heading south on this market, it's going to get real ugly real fast. You will know who's driving the train.

May 1st-now, We enter a market breakdown. I had given many warning signs beforehand of retail volume coming in, tops in formation, large spec positions, etc that had led up till this. I even told members here to liquidate longs 3 days after the top formed, and 1 month before the declines in May began.

Today, May 21st.

Posted here that I wanted to see a convincing rally Monday morning for me to liquidate my short positions. For the 1,000 point decline in the DJIA currently, today's 130 point reversal is not enough to stop a slide of that magnitude, imo. I was looking for a 1.5-2% bounce today (or 200 points), didn't get it.

Everyone was discussing the ST RSI being oversold, oversold. Well, the ST RSI on my charts now reads 60, so a good way has come back. This may be a setup for another decline. Consider the chart below I put together:

We shall see where tomorrow's trading goes, that will be telling. We will definitely need a very strong move in order to counter-this. MACD Lines on the ST basis are back to about the same place as last week, where we initiated the next decline down.

MACD lines on the IT and LT basis, though, are very much trapped in a steep decline. We may see a strong relief rally after more selling this week, as that would free up room above. G-8 meeting, though promised bold words, still came $1 trillion USD short of the answer.

P.S. Bring back that guy who said we were wrong. Feed him to the bears!

Last edited by Vanity; 05-21-2012 at 07:23 PM.